Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

A little better than yesterday at least

11 deaths - was 15 last week

3296 cases - was 3130 last week

12.4% positivity - was 11.4% last week

596 patients - was 540 last week

53 ventilated - was 51 last week

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

NOT GOOD NEWS HERE - I AM GUESSING YESTERDAYS READJUSTMENT IS FACTORING INTO TODAY'S BIG LEAP.

AT LEAST HOPE SO

BUT NORTH WEST COMES OUT OF IT OK


130 WITH 10 NORTH WEST - BIGGEST FRIDAY TOTAL FOR MONTHS

12 MAR WITH 132 AND 20 NORTH WEST IS THE LAST TIME I BELIEVE


Was 70 with 10 NW last week & 69 with 7 NW the week before.

This is not old cases catching up by the way 95 of these deaths happened in the last 3 days. And none are before September.~

SOMETHING WAS WRONG WITH THE ENGLAND DATA LAST NIGHT AS IT WAS WELL BELOW THE NUMBERS POSTED FOR ENGLAND HOSPITALS (LET ALONE THE OUT OF HOSPITAL ADD ONS) & NOW THIS NUMBER IS WAY OVER EXPECTATION. MUST BE SOMETHING AWRY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WHEN ENGLAND HOSPITAL POSTED 88 (A FALL YESTERDAY) AND GOV UK LAST NIGHT THEN POSTED JUST 66 FOR HOSPITAL PLUS OUT OF HOSPITAL IN ENGLAND - WHICH WAS CLEARLY NOT RIGHT AS I NOTED THEN. HOW THIS FACTORS INTO THIS BIG JUMP TODAY I DO NOT KNOW BUT IT HAS TO BE CONNECTED IN SOME WAY AND I SUSPECT YESTERDAY WAS TOO LOW EVEN BEDFORE GOV UK REDUCED IT AND TODAY ADDS ON ALL THE ONES THEY MISSED - SO MAYBE BOTH WERE 'REALLY' AROUND 110

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL 130 DEATHS IN DETAIL

By REGION:-

East 18, London 13, Midlands 33, NE & Yorkshire 34, North West 10, South East 9, South West 13

MOST BY TRUST:- 8 each in Birmingham & North Cumbria

NW Trusts:- 3 in Morecambe, 2 each in Blackpool & St Helens AND 1 each in Manchester, Stockport & Warrington

YOU WILL NOTE THAT THE DEATHS ARE HAPPENING IN PLACES I MENTION OFTEN AS HIGH ON ZOE EACH DAY - THESE ARE THE LEGACIES OF THOSE HIGH NUMBRS IN PLACES LIKE LAKE DISTRICT, NORTH LANCASHIRE, BLACKPOOL COAST (FYLDE/WYRE), ST HELENS AND WARRINGTON - CHESHIRE AND STOCKPORT FIGURE TOO BUT NUMBERS OF DEATHS ARE NOT AS HIGH HERE DESPITE THE HIGH CASES.


BY AGE:-

20 - 39 (2), 40 - 59 (9), 60 - 79 (53), 80 PLUS (66)

 

[BlueAnorak]

So much for Western Europe doing better than we have. German cases have surged 70% in a week. So their 120 day Covid infection clock starts now.
Unlike our clock which is 113 days old today. Interestingly cases where I live are now predicted to fall by Zoe in a day or so's time.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Looking more closely at the numbers in recent days is not encouraging as it suggests a sudden big jump up in deaths.

Yesterday (21 OCT) registered 11 already - last Friday the past 24 hours only logged 4 on the day before.

20 OCT added a huge 62 on the second day to total 72 on day two. 62 is the largest day two add on since 4 MAR.And 72 is the highest day 2 total in England hospitals since 8 MAR at the tail end of last Winters horrendous pre vaccine wave.

The rest of the past week show similar trends though less markedly. The BIG jump up seems to have been over the past 3 days. But every day is going to now be at least 70 or 80 deaths minimum at 5 days from numbers already which will mean we will certainly be up on last week by quite a bit even this early in the week that being obvious and be heading towards the highest weekly total since last March.

WE NEED TO KNOW WHY THE DEATH NUMBERS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN YESTERDAY BY GOV UK TO BE BELOW WHAT ENGLAND HOSPITALS HAD REPORTED A FEW HOURS BEFORE AND SEE WHAT THEY DO TO THESE NUMBERS TONIGHT. AS IT WAS STRANGE WHAT THEY DID WITH THEM AS THEY USUALLY POST AN EXPLANATION WHEN NUMBERS LIKE THIS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AWRY WITH ONE ANOTHER DUE TO DOUBLE COUNTING AS SOMETIMES HAPPENS.

VERY SURPRISED (WELL MAYBE NOT!) THAT NO JOURNALISTS SEEM TO HAVE SPOTTED THE NUMBER JIGGERY POKERY IN THOSE ENGLAND DEATH NUMBERS LAST NIGHT.

OR MAYBE NOT! AFTER ALL THEY ARE NOT 'OBSESSED' WITH NUMBERS AS WE ARE ACCUSED IN HERE - SO WHY WOULD THEY?

BUT I BET THEY NOTICE TODAY THE HIGHEST SINCE NEARLY 8 MONTHS AGO NUMBERS TODAY

 

[Healdplace]

ONS weekly survey of Covid prevalence shows numbers still falling in Scotland (to 1 in 90) but still rising in England - up from 1 in 60 last week to 1 in 55 this. The data is unclear in Wales and N Ireland. But are estimated as 1 in 130 in N Ireland and 1 in 45 - worst in UK - in Wales.

 

[grunge]

So much for Western Europe doing better than we have. German cases have surged 70% in a week. So their 120 day Covid infection clock starts now.
Unlike our clock which is 113 days old today. Interestingly cases where I live are now predicted to fall by Zoe in a day or so's time.

120 day covid clock?

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE SUMMARY TODAY

TWO NEW ALL TIME RECORDS IN ONE DAY BUT A GLIMMER OF HOPE

PREDICTED CASES WELL UP AGAIN- ON 84, 842 FROM 82, 955

THIS IS AGAIN THE MOST EVER ON ZOE - UP BY 1887 - MORE than the 1132 yesterday - but at least LESS than 2830 in day before after past few day rises of 2591, 2143.


It was 71, 245 last week. UP 13, 597 in week.

ONGOING INFECTIONS - ALSO NOW SET A NEW RECORD AS THE HIGHEST NUMBER EVER AND NOW ABOVE THOSE RECORDED IN MID JANUARY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE UKs WORST WAVE WHEN AROUND 1500 A DAY WERE THEN DYING NOT AROUND A TENTH OF THAT AS NOW

1, 075, 112 UP from 1, 060, 744 - a rise of 14, 368 - which is slightly DOWN from a rise of 15, 072 yesterday.


HIGHEST ZOE HAS EVER REACHED BEFORE WAS 1, 059, 670 ON 11 JANUARY.

It then fell below 1 million for the last time until the past week on 15 January.We can but hope for a similar result in this wave.

Today week to week it us up by a weekly RISE of 96, 631 UP from 91, 196 week to week yesterday.

So sadly it is not looking like we will be falling below 1 million cases in this wave as rapidly as in January.

THIS SEEMS A LESS DEADLY WAVE BUT ONE WITH A VERY FLAT UPWARD (AND PRESUMABLY DOWNWARD) TRAJECTORY THAT COULD BE HIGH FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS




Ongoing case numbers will always lag daily cases as if you catch Covid you will be a Covid case for a week or two but a new case only once.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP REGIONAL NUMBERS

Current TOP NUMBERS:- ANOTHER DAY OF ALL CHANGE AT THE TOP AS SEVERAL REGIONS ARE CLOSE TOGETHER AND NUMBERS EVERYWHERE RISE UPWARDS

EVERYWHERE IN ENGLAND IS NOW IN THE TOP WATCH ZONE!


WALES BACK to TOP but UP big too ON 1422 / 1908 FROM 1358 / 1837

NORTH EAST rises BIG to second after posting for real cases over 2000 lately but o Zoe UP to 1258 / 1866 FROM 1136 / 1720

NORTH WEST falls into third now DOWN ON 1308 / 1660 FROM 1331 / 1685

EAST MIDLANDS is in fourth spot though UP - on 1285 / 1679 FROM 1269 / 1658

YORKSHIRE stays fifth but UP big on 1253 / 1640 FROM 1168 / 1541

SOUTH WEST whose numbers have been through the roof rises to sixth now from best England region less than 2 weeks ago as the South starts to dominate the cases - UP on 1282 / 1565 FROM 1115 / 1383

WEST MIDLANDS falls to seventh and UP a tad on 1125 / 1501 FROM 1105 / 1476

The lowest of this England top range group are:

East England UP on 1086 / 1351 FROM 1026 / 1280

South East UP on 1088 / 1281 FROM 1040 / 1229

AND


London - still the lowest England region but UP on 981 / 1225 FROM 930 / 1166



THE MIDDLE WATCH ZONE NOW ONLY HAS THE TWO OTHER NATIONS.



SCOTLAND is no longer the best - but DOWN

on 688 / 996 FROM 742 / 1062


AND THE LOWEST IN UK STILL NORTHERN IRELAND

BEST IN UK and DOWN on 375 / 1363 FROM 419 / 1459


NOTE HOW ALL THE SOUTHERN REGIONS ARE RISING AND THE ONLY FALLERS TODAY WERE SCOTLAND/NORTHERN IRELAND & THE NORTH WEST - THE THREE NORTHERLY UK REGIONS - INDEED THE WAVE SEEMS TO BE FALLING NORTH TO SOUTH MUCH AS IT STARTED THAT WAY

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE NORTH WEST NUMBERS:-

In the NW they have both Liverpool up again into mid 16 K and St Helens UP on almost the same 16K score

BUT Warrington falls a bit finally on 21, 394 FROM 22, 580 after being UP tp 23, 607 - though still highest in the Merseyside area.



The Fylde coast area has STOPPED rising but is still on some very high numbers - Fylde on 18K & Wyre happily down a lot though still the most in the region on 42, 372 FROM 48, 980.


Though the Lake District is going UP again on 23K and Lancaster/Morecambe UP too on 20K


Cheshire East is UP again on 19, 456 FROM 18, 692 v Cheshire West DOWN on 24, 881 FROM 25, 154 - so East still behind but closing the gap.

Cheshire West now above ALL of GM. Even Stockport. And Cheshire East rising as Stockport falls (though VERY slowly) is at risk of overtaking too in next day or two.


As for GM - Headlne - Stockport falls for 5th straight day but only inching down not dropping much per day BUT a fast rising Rochdale (up in 7 days from 6904 to 21,077 - just a few hundred now behind Stockport after a series of seep daily climbs) might top the table tomorrow if that continues. No GM borough is now LOWER than Bolton - just under 11K.


The GM order according to Zoe with to nearest K numbers is:-

Stockport still top but DOWN ONTO 21, 640 FROM 21, 823. Good news IF these fall last or increase from the drip drip rate they are occurring at right now. A big IF here. But a fast rising Rochdale crashes into second after steep jumps up over recent days now on 21, 077 FROM 18, 764 yesterday, both ahead of the rest now led by Oldham - which like neighbour Rochdale - has been shooting upward and now in third on 17,900. Manchester creeping up lately too is now fourth on 16, 663 and seeming to be accelerating. and as Wigan falls again to just under 16K. Bury is up a place after rising bit by bit every day to now be just under 15K Trafford is going down like Stockport very slowly but now just under 15K too. Salford who are going DOWN regularly now too is just over 12K. Tameside DOWN more slowly after big recent falls is just just 222 below Salford on 12, 067 But top of the tree with best numbers - though like all the rest STILL over the lower watch zone is Bolton going down slowly like other boroughs but on just 10, 829.


THESE ZOE NUMBERS ARE PRETTY GOOD MATCHES FOR WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE REAL CASE NUMBERS AND WEEKLY/MONTHLY POP SCORES FOR THE TEN BOROUGHS