Coronavirus (2021) thread

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

What’s happening with the tablet based vaccines that were celebrated a few months ago? I’m sure I didn’t dream this?

Don’t think you did but it’ll be tricky to get them approved. The company pushing them (vaxart) is doing a presentation next week to the World and Immunotherapy World Congress so we should know more then. I know it’s a phrase that is hugely over used but it would be a game changer, given there would be no need to protect the cold chain, no need for needles, PPE or any other kit.
Meanwhile, we have thrown away hundreds of thousands of doses of AZ and are likely to be doing similar with Moderna, unless people pile in for their boosters (or first and second doses) within the month.

 

[grunge]

But it can go either way just like previous variants cant it? I remember reading about the Lambada one etc and everyone telling us how terrible it was going to be and I've not heard about it for ages now. On the other hand beta (at the time) and delta did pan out quite badly.

Maybe lets just see how this one pans out before declaring it a hoax or the apocolypse.

Basically Delta has kept all other variants at bay with the fact that its so much more transmissible than the other variants.

the only way a new variant takes hold over Delta is if its more transmissible again ( There is a Delta+ in the UK that seems to be doing this. we're up to 15% of all our cases being it now ). or one that is better at breakthrough infections so vaccines and previous infection immunity are reduced. The fear here is the latter. SA has been hit hard by 3 waves and in the last week since this new variant appeared they have started spiking again.

in one region ( Guateng ) nearly every sample they took for Genomic testing came back as the new variant so its very much digging in and taking over from Delta there.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I'm not going to get too worked up about people bypassing the quarantine by flying via other destinations and 'playing the system'. We have done the right thing by placing SA and neighbouring countries on the red list promptly which will mean quarantine for the vast majority of travellers.

We have almost everyone who can be vaccinated having done so and are slowly but surely getting through the booster campaign.

It was urgent to put India and neighbouring countries on the red list for Delta and we didn't respond. This was critical as the vaccination rollout still had some way to go. Since then it's accelerated somewhat and huge numbers have also been infected.

This time round it's important for different reasons - it's to learn about what impact Nu (as its expected to be called) has on immunity and transmission. Will future boosters be required specifically to target this type of variant? Either way, the current vaccinations and immunity through infection should hopefully still protect against the most serious of disease, then there's the roll of T cells etc too.

Point being, slowing down the spread of Nu is important whilst we learn about it, don't flood it into these shores in too great numbers from the get go. But, it's probably not the time to worry about a few travellers who work their way around it either. It will get here eventually, and if it's as transmissible as they predict it is just a case of delaying the inevitable for now.

We also have to be careful of how this looks to public health authorities in South Africa/Botswana who have identified the variant and been very transparent in an early, timely manner. Is the correct response to ostracise them completely or to work with them whilst still trying to protect our own citizens? Bare in mind, they might think twice about being so timely and transparent with any future variant if the result is hugely negative knock on effects for their country and how they're treated by the rest of the world.

The only worry is that we’re not supporting these countries, in terms of health and/or genome sequencing. Whist South Africa and Botswana for that matter, have very good systems in place, many other parts of Africa do not. Not only that, if all we (and Europe) are going to do are putting punitive measures in place, we risk people stopping sharing this information.
If stopping travel is a good idea, then what are the richer countries going to offer as well as a ban on travelling, is the question we already know the answer to. Still feels like we are making it up as we go along, which is not where we should be.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I love how some are in complete denial about a new variant like this - they pretend it's just a big hoax and nothing to worry about to make themselves feel better.

Whilst undoubtedly true, it also applies the other way, with Covid variants being the gift that keeps on giving.
They provide,in essence, confirmation of everyones personal view, existing biases and preoccupations confirmation of their private preconceptions relating to politics, interventions, vaccination and the like.
Yet another example of where we’ve lost the ability for a rational discussion, where different views are not merely tolerated but actively encouraged and shades of grey are the norm not the exception and we’re all much worse off for it.

 

[hammocity]

I'm not going to get too worked up about people bypassing the quarantine by flying via other destinations and 'playing the system'. We have done the right thing by placing SA and neighbouring countries on the red list promptly which will mean quarantine for the vast majority of travellers.

We have almost everyone who can be vaccinated having done so and are slowly but surely getting through the booster campaign.

It was urgent to put India and neighbouring countries on the red list for Delta and we didn't respond. This was critical as the vaccination rollout still had some way to go. Since then it's accelerated somewhat and huge numbers have also been infected.

This time round it's important for different reasons - it's to learn about what impact Nu (as its expected to be called) has on immunity and transmission. Will future boosters be required specifically to target this type of variant? Either way, the current vaccinations and immunity through infection should hopefully still protect against the most serious of disease, then there's the roll of T cells etc too.

Point being, slowing down the spread of Nu is important whilst we learn about it, don't flood it into these shores in too great numbers from the get go. But, it's probably not the time to worry about a few travellers who work their way around it either. It will get here eventually, and if it's as transmissible as they predict it is just a case of delaying the inevitable for now.

We also have to be careful of how this looks to public health authorities in South Africa/Botswana who have identified the variant and been very transparent in an early, timely manner. Is the correct response to ostracise them completely or to work with them whilst still trying to protect our own citizens? Bare in mind, they might think twice about being so timely and transparent with any future variant if the result is hugely negative knock on effects for their country and how they're treated by the rest of the world.

Great analysis, I remember a couple of plane loads of passengers coming back from Wuhan around November/December 2019 being sent to a Liverpool University quarantine facility to ensure COVID didn’t enter the country. It barely registered with most, it was a Chinese virus and we were just taking precautions. Forward 3/4 months later and we all knew the virus was impossible to stop. As you say, this version will get to the UK regardless of what we do but stopping mass infections early gives us a chance to learn about the mutations and hopefully gain enough knowledge to deal with it.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Basically Delta has kept all other variants at bay with the fact that its so much more transmissible than the other variants.

the only way a new variant takes hold over Delta is if its more transmissible again ( There is a Delta+ in the UK that seems to be doing this. we're up to 15% of all our cases being it now ). or one that is better at breakthrough infections so vaccines and previous infection immunity are reduced. The fear here is the latter. SA has been hit hard by 3 waves and in the last week since this new variant appeared they have started spiking again.

in one region ( Guateng ) nearly every sample they took for Genomic testing came back as the new variant so its very much digging in and taking over from Delta there.

The 'Delta+' we've got over here is the one that's more transmissible but less deadly than Delta, right? This can only be a good thing.

Could this actually do us a massive favour in being better at fighting against this Botswana variant?

 

[grunge]

The 'Delta+' we've got over here is the one that's more transmissible but less deadly than Delta, right? This can only be a good thing.

Could this actually do us a massive favour in being better at fighting against this Botswana variant?

I've not heard anything about it being less deadly. I guess its going to be really tricky to judge with so many people vaccinated.

and it depends how bad this Botswana variant is. there is certainly a fear that its escaping natural + vaccine immunity.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Just a matter of time before it's discovered in the UK

 

[RobMCFC]

Just a matter of time before it's discovered in the UK

I'm sure it, or something very like it, will already be here. Thanks to the fact that there's no social restrictions and many people think it's done and dusted, the virus will be spreading quite fast.

I suppose stopping flights from Africa will help slow down the initial spread, but it won't keep the new variant out for long. We live in a connected world now and travel bans don't really help. They'd be better making masks mandatory, and enforcing distancing in public places.

 

[Tommy_Catons_Perm]

Just a matter of time before it's discovered in the UK

And then just a matter of more time before the next mutant takes over?