Coronavirus (2021) thread

[True_Blue69]

What's your source for the numbers 40 and 50? Javid quoting 336 today.

In general, we should expect exponential growth, so the rate of increase is proportional to the numbers already. A worst case scenario might be doubling every 3-4 days, which would equate to 40 cases this time last week being 160 cases today.

We don't expect growth of thousands before cases are airway in the thousands.

Here we go again, you’ve been expecting that for 6 months so no change there.

 

[Healdplace]

What's your source for the numbers 40 and 50? Javid quoting 336 today.

In general, we should expect exponential growth, so the rate of increase is proportional to the numbers already. A worst case scenario might be doubling every 3-4 days, which would equate to 40 cases this time last week being 160 cases today.

We don't expect growth of thousands before cases are airway in the thousands.

Sorry if I was not clear, I said 40 or 50 a day as it was 260 or so last Friday and is 336 today. So out of the 100,000 plus cases in the weekend that is at most 100 Omicron found. Just seems a low number considering it is so infective and seemingly been here for a few weeks. Was wondering if it is finding it harder to get a hold here than it obviously is in South Africa.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Javid: Gap between infection and infectiousness may be shorter with Omicron​

‘Javid says scientists believes the "window between infection and infectiousness may be shorter" for the Omicron variant than Delta.’


That would be good news in my mind, I think.

It would certainly make it easier to trace.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Was wondering if it is finding it harder to get a hold here than it obviously is in South Africa.

Probably not.

UKHSA analysis shows Rt of 2.7, but, to emphasise again, with wide uncertainty, see twitter below.

Very latest data from UKHSA:



If I wanted to be alarmist @True_Blue69 , I would claim it was rising 30 fold a week.

Need to be very careful over interpreting small numbers, but so far, this is consistent with the SA experience. Much uncertainty, but enough to take very seriously I think.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Probably not.

UKHSA analysis shows Rt of 2.7, but, to emphasise again, with wide uncertainty, see twitter below.

Very latest data from UKHSA:

View attachment 31209

If I wanted to be alarmist @True_Blue69 , I would claim it was rising 30 fold a week.

Need to be very careful over interpreting small numbers, but so far, this is consistent with the SA experience. Much uncertainty, but enough to take very seriously I think.

If it is 2.7, what kind of number are we looking at in Xmas week?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

If it is 2.7, what kind of number are we looking at in Xmas week?

I think it's probably unhelpful to be specific on numbers, because uncertainty is so high, both on current prevalence, how much is down to travellers and rate of spread. And also the various possibilities on severity matter a lot.

The doubling time implied is of the order of 3-4 days, ie it would quadruple every week.

But I expect, as we've seen before, the public would react to such a rise by rapidly becoming more cautious, which would limit the rate. Perhaps even the government would too.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

I think it's probably unhelpful to be specific on numbers, because uncertainty is so high, both on current prevalence, how much is down to travellers and rate of spread. And also the various possibilities on severity matter a lot.

The doubling time implied is of the order of 3-4 days, ie it would quadruple every week.

But I expect, as we've seen before, the public would react to such a rise by rapidly becoming more cautious, which would limit the rate. Perhaps even the government would too.

Fair enough. I’d done a quick calculation in my head.

It’s starting at the worst possible time really.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

it was 260 or so last Friday and is 336 today.

Not sure where your numbers are from, but you're normally spot on, so perhaps there are multiple conflicting sources. It's often the case early in this sort of event. Got a link?

The ones I've reported are from UKHSA, summarised by this guy (they seem to put them on twitter individually, I can't see this summarised anywhere official, but they do match up vs the UKHSA twitter account).

 

[Claytop]

Best thing to do is occasionally dip in and out of the thread, get jabbed/booster’d and enjoy Christmas/spending time with family.

You’ll drive yourself crazy on here 24/7.

 

[Healdplace]

Thanks for the detail Roubaix. I was only citing numbers from what politicians were saying Friday and Today and approximately the ones I cited. That's all. Meaning they had confirmed around 260 last Friday and today it is 100 or so more. But in that interim peiod there had been at least 100,000 cases reported in the UK. It just seemed 100 new Omicron versus 99,900 Delta (presumably) was the tally of cases over past few days.

I know it is not that simple. The cases over the weekend will be from multiple dates and the Omicron ones will too.

But it just seemed a low percentage given that we have been looking for a couple of weeks now.

Though I realise 1% could be 10% by the weekend in the way of these things.