It doesn’t actually matter who’s right in the scenario I’ve painted though. If it’s 10‘s of thousands we have more quite a few more deaths and if it’s not, we don’t. The time frame is too short for any interventions to make any difference whatsoever. We are in the classic situation of the politicians fallacy. “Something must be done”. “This is something”. “Thats what we will do”, (even though they know most of it doesn’t work and has not only never been recommended in the past, but actively discouraged).
I also find it somewhat distasteful that, after years of systematically undermining the NHS, this government are putting all the ills facing the country at the foot of ‘saving our NHS’. If they’d wanted to save it they should not have kicked it half to death in the first place…