Coronavirus (2021) thread

[domalino]

Guess this is going mainstream now. Fuck me I really really hope it's wrong and all is well. Either way, the cynic in me would not be surprised at all that even with a golden ticket out of this we'd still find a way to inexplicably get it wrong. Thankfully it's come to light early enough to sort it one way or another. I don't have any doubts that we'll be looking intensely at this.

Until this study is published it's not worth paying attention to.

There have been hundreds of claims made through studies during this pandemic that have made headlines until they were peer reviewed and dismissed.

Also, this is not just a UK thing, we were the first to go to 12 weeks, but now loads of countries are doing it, and the World Health Organisation signed off on it.

 

[twosips]

Until this study is published it's not worth paying attention to.

There have been hundreds of claims made through studies during this pandemic that have made headlines until they were peer reviewed and dismissed.

No I agree, just think its obviously newsworthy so will be interesting to see how this plays out. It's made Sky News etc, so obviously our CMO and the rest will be aware.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Look at the insert. You can see how cases in the active (red) and placebo (blue) change over the three weeks post dose one.

Efficacy = (difference between blue and red lines)/(height of blue line)

The average efficacy isn't so far from 30% at 21 days when dose 2 happens. But you can see how the lines have separated, and forward efficacy could be expected to be much better.

And this is for the average population in the Pfizer trial; the population vaccinated initially In Israel will be much more vulnerable and potentially have a weaker response to vaccine.

 

[inbetween]

ANyone else see Newsnight? I watched Newsnight tonight and at the end there was a researcher from Bath who said that it appears that the 1st vaccine bestows up to 30% immunity which is much less than hoped. That was not a mis-type. Alarming. Presumably a 2nd jab would make it good? COuld be rogue research / information but it was on newsnight.

I wouldn't read too much into this and I wouldn't trust too much of the data coming out of Israel. They initially said that new case rates had reduced by 33% and a separate medical body said 60% after taking the first dose.

There is also the severe case lag period, it typically takes 10-14 days for someone to get seriously ill, less to present at hospital moderately ill. It takes 2-3 weeks for the first dose to take effect and in that time period Israel had vaccinated half as many people so it's just too early.

The critical factor is this news is based upon case positivity, it makes NO mention of case severity which is the main thing to watch for and it's always the last thing to start to change. At the end of the day, if everyone in the country became positive for COVID but had no symptoms then who cares?

 

[twosips]

It depends what the stats actually mean. The link has no data or research other than "30%".

The Pfizer trial showed *average* efficacy over the first three weeks before dose 2 to be ~50%.

But, the efficacy was zero at the very start; by three weeks in there was very substantial efficacy. Impossible to quantify with small numbers, and averaged across the age range.

So if average efficacy, in the most elderly and vulnerable only, across the three weeks before dose 2, is 30%, that's neither a big surprise nor necessarily a problem for the uk strategy. And it tells us nothing about protection against severe disease which is what's most important.

Wait and see.

The important thing is that we should not open up until we're really sure of what's happening here, and that case numbers here are low. Resist the political pressure to ease restrictions at all costs.

I totally get this mate. I agree too. My point really was that its making big news, so we'll have to see what the response is gonna be! Shared that graph you did too a few times myself.

 

[Rammy Blue]

If it did require a u turn though it would only involve Pfizer, and as we are only 4 weeks in it could probably be done fairly easily and quickly.

This is the key and why no one should start panicking, its ”easy” to switch again.

 

[Marvin]

Until this study is published it's not worth paying attention to.

There have been hundreds of claims made through studies during this pandemic that have made headlines until they were peer reviewed and dismissed.

Also, this is not just a UK thing, we were the first to go to 12 weeks, but now loads of countries are doing it, and the World Health Organisation signed off on it.

Presumably someone in PHE is following up the vaccinated groups to check their immune response

 

[ayrshire_blue]

This is the key and why no one should start panicking, its ”easy” to switch again.

Science for dummies question, but why would it be different for AZ than Pfizer?

Am I right in suggesting the 12 week gap has been fully trialled and proven to work best with AZ?

 

[Deleted member 77198]

International vaccine comparison. Germany is about EU average. Denmark is best in EU, France are rubbish.

(Israel is off the chart at ~30%)

The UK acceleration is when the Oxford/AZ jab got approval. That's expected in Europe end Jan.

Our 3 month gap policy probably means the difference in numbers who've had at least one shot is even greater.

Lots of noise in the UK about how unfair differences between locations are; personally I think that's inevitable with such a fast response and we should just let them get on with it for now at least, and be patient.

The only thing I fear is getting wrong with this right now is opening up too soon, and a 3rd (4th?) wave sweeping the young and middle aged.



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Yeah, I think I read that barely anyone (per 100) have been done in London but in the North East the numbers vaccinated so far are huge.

 

[Del_Bosque]

Yeah, I think I read that barely anyone (per 100) have been done in London but in the North East the numbers vaccinated so far are huge.

Can’t imagine there’s that many 80 plus or care home residents in London compared to rest of the country