Coronavirus (2021) thread

[twosips]

While I think the concept of normality by summer is overly optimistic I do feel we're going to be in an infinitly better position.

the main issue with things like Glastonbury + Holidays is those are mostly international events. while we as a country could be in a great place, no guarantee's other countries will be in a good place.

Glastonbury for example, the vast majority of the acts will in international. if we still have quarantine for incoming visitors due to outbreaks around the world it makes that pretty difficult logistically.

Glasto's problem too is that events like that take months and months to organise. They're logistical nightmares. They've decided to just not bother, and I don't blame them. I'm hoping the more simple, local pleasures can be more reactive. No reason why they can't.

 

[hampshireblue]

I totally get fearing the worst mate. It's a pretty common coping mechanism - tell yourself everything is terrible, and so if it does happen it doesn't come as a surprise. Humans do it all the time. City fans do it on a less harmful scale every single game! 'Typical City' we say to ourselves before a game, expecting City to lose against an easy team, even though know the odds are hugely stacked in City's favour and they're likely gonna win it. And usually do. It feels easier to say something negative and not be surprised if you're right, but then be pleasantly wrong, as opposed to saying something positive and fear getting your hopes dashed. I get it mate, I truly do.

During scenarios like this though, it's also called catastrophizing. Catastrophizing is basically viewing a situation as massively worse than it is, and ignoring all evidence that suggests otherwise. I do it sometimes, but I've tried hard to know when I am. It isn't easy, i'll admit that, but it certainly doesn't help, and it certainly isn't rational. It's the exact opposite of the happy clapper mentality, and both damaging in their own way. You're fearing the worst at every possible turn and you're ignoring common sense at the same time. I don't blame you, but try and recognise it mate for your own good. Take this pandemic for example. It's utterly fucking shite, I'm not going to dress that up. But it isn't a new and unique experience. Pandemics happen. And cos pandemics happen, we also know that pandemics go. This one will too.

Here's some pretty undeniable truths for you. We literally know things will get better in the summer either way. They did last year. Look at this graph:

View attachment 8687


It is clear to anyone with half a brain that this virus is seasonal. Lockdowns will help, sure, but we all know *really* that the reason it literally did disappear over the summer is because that's how these seasonal viruses work. Now when you add vastly more significant herd immunity from general spread over winter (and it has been painful, yes - but it is a thing), and then even the vaccines working even just a tiny bit, then I can't see any logical, scientific reason why summer won't be like last year, if not even lower in terms of numbers.

I don't think many of us realised how little it was spread about last summer compared to what we're seeing now. The odds of getting it were tiny. I don't see any reason why it won't be the same. New variant a factor? Yeah, sure, but if anything the new variant just pushes us closer to the end goal, quicker. Herd immunity. It's a thing, whether its reached via vaccines or catching it. The new variant will still very likely act like a seasonal virus too.

Now I don't know about you, but last summer I certainly remember gyms being open, I certainly remember being able to sit outside or inside at pubs and restaurants. And I did! I had some lovely walks, and I felt comfortable and relaxed chatting to friends safely outside in gardens. It isn't optimal, no, but its a damn sight better than what we have now. It will happen mate. As for holidays? Well, I don't know. Maybe overseas travel may be a little more cautious, but you've got to remember that this government was one of the last to close travel, and i'd wager that if they got a chance to open it with cases and deaths very, very low, then they might do again. Plus, many countries literally rely on tourism. I guarantee they'll want people back at the first sign of normality.

Now I know you'll say 'but it could evolve and reinfect people'. Correct! Though all the scientists I follow don't seem to think tha' any changes would make it more deadly, and even if it did become a situation where people could be reinfected, it is still highly likely that the symptoms would be much less the second time around given some residual understanding from your immune system. When this starts to happen, the virus just becomes endemic. It becomes another thing we put up with, and our bodies understand it better. This is how we've gotten through pandemics before, and I don't see any reason as to why it wouldn't happen again.

Anyway mate, I get it. I truly do. Things are overwhelmingly bleak. I feel it every day too, sometimes really down about it all, but normality will return simply because everything we know suggests it will. It could be painful for a bit on the way, yep, but we will get there one way or another. Big love mate. Hang on in there :)

If it's that seasonal, how come the likes of India, Brazil and Mexico are so badly affected? I don't think it's the virus that is seasonal per se but the way we live our lives at different times of the year i.e. indoors or outdoors. We were lucky enough to be in Greece and Cyprus for a few weeks at the end of last summer into November and the adherence to follow rules by the population was like chalk and cheese compared to here. The fact is it sperads by human contact and even now I hear people making up reasons to just go for a drive to a different shop to the one nearest because they are allowed-not whether it's the right thing to do.

 

[twosips]

If it's that seasonal, how come the likes of India, Brazil and Mexico are so badly affected? I don't think it's the virus that is seasonal per se but the way we live our lives at different times of the year i.e. indoors or outdoors. We were lucky enough to be in Greece and Cyprus for a few weeks at the end of last summer into November and the adherence to follow rules by the population was like chalk and cheese compared to here. The fact is it sperads by human contact and even now I hear people making up reasons to just go for a drive to a different shop to the one nearest because they are allowed-not whether it's the right thing to do.

It's the same end result either way. I'd guess most seasonal viruses are how they are because of human behaviour. Unless we all decide to act vastly different in the summer than we've done forever, why won't it change? There are plenty of scientists out there that predict that covid will eventually become a seasonal endemic virus in the UK. Seems pretty sound reasoning to me tbh.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

It is clear to anyone with half a brain that this virus is seasonal.

Perhaps, somewhat.

But there are many reasons to believe that this has been a relatively minor factor in COVID. It's very hard to deconvolute from everything else, but...

- there have been huge outbreaks counter-seasonally. Manaus, in equatorial Brazil had one of the worst outbreaks. South Africa currently has a surge during their summer. Cases in France grew strongly throughout July and August.
- In the UK, the R number was above one throughout the summer once restrictions were lifted. But cases had been driven down so low already (400 daily at the point of least restrictions) that the rise was barely noticeable. This is the effect of exponential growth; 400 to 500 isn't a lot in a week but 40,000 to 50,000 is, yet both require the exact same virus characteristics.
- the autumn growth was coincident with schools and universities returning. That was well before a typical seasonal flu outbreak.

So I'd be very cautious about assuming that good weather automatically brings less virus.

 

[twosips]

Perhaps, somewhat.

But there are many reasons to believe that this has been a relatively minor factor in COVID. It's very hard to deconvolute from everything else, but...

- there have been huge outbreaks counter-seasonally. Manaus, in equatorial Brazil had one of the worst outbreaks. South Africa currently has a surge during their summer. Cases in France grew strongly throughout July and August.
- In the UK, the R number was above one throughout the summer once restrictions were lifted. But cases had been driven down so low already (400 daily at the point of least restrictions) that the rise was barely noticeable. This is the effect of exponential growth; 400 to 500 isn't a lot in a week but 40,000 to 50,000 is, yet both require the exact same virus characteristics.
- the autumn growth was coincident with schools and universities returning. That was well before a typical seasonal flu outbreak.

So I'd be very cautious about assuming that good weather automatically brings less virus.

I'm basing it off this. See no reason to doubt it.



I'd also expect behaviour to play apart too of course, and I think its fair to say that living/working conditions (poverty levels) and general behaviour are vastly different in Brazil, India and South Africa compared to the UK. I'd guess treatment in hospitals doesn't quite stand up to comparison too. And I don't see any reason why our behaviour will be any different than last summer too. Compliance had already tanked in the summer and everyone was sat outside drinking in beer gardens as per usual after that initial 7 week lockdown. Beaches were rammed too, there was even mass black lives matter protests! They all seemed to make little difference.

Edit - Just remembered some good examples. Lots of the reported big outbreaks in the summer were in food plants...where temperatures are kept nice and chilled!

 

[Healdplace]

Leicester's first wave peaked in late June when they were first into what we now call Tier whatever.

Greater Manchester and the rest of the North West bar the pet poodle Merseyside entered the never ending story of restrictions in late July.

This is to a degree seasonal because of human behaviour. But the main reason numbers were low in mid Summer was we suppressed just in time and took lockdown 1 seriously and got to a sufficiently low level in the south where the first wave had focused first so that it only really impacted the midlands and the north in Summer.

We were a week or two behind the south in wave 1 which minimised our problems then when it was too late for the south once lockdown occurred. But maximised them when we went back to normality as it was too early for us - hence we ended up with a late Summer/ early autumn wave that saw us locked down but not the south.

That second wave hit - and it WAS a second wave in the north but does not get called that as it did not hit the south - but waned just as the new variant took off down south and created the third wave, That is now called the second as it was London's second and that is all that counts apparently.

Our suppression via the virtual permanent lockdown we have been in has minimised the impact here - the opposite of what happened in Summer.

Proven because as Merseyside was let off it was the first to get the big whammy last month because it had not been supressing because the government was 'rewarding' it for doing as asked.

To me all that says that whilst there is a seasonal factor due to changing human behaviour in a climate like ours the virus itself and the measures we take do most to dictate when waves happen.

As long as you understand that a wave is still a wave even when it does not happen in London.

Indeed this wave will NOT be over when it is over in London and for once the plan to exit into tiers might be helpful in that will prevent the areas released too early (as the north was last Spring) from being too high and so the first to face any possible fourth wave that - with luck - will never materialise.

 

[grunge]

I'm basing it off this. See no reason to doubt it.



I'd also expect behaviour to play apart too of course, and I think its fair to say that living/working conditions (poverty levels) and general behaviour are vastly different in Brazil, India and South Africa compared to the UK. I'd guess treatment in hospitals doesn't quite stand up to comparison too. And I don't see any reason why our behaviour will be any different than last summer too. Compliance had already tanked in the summer and everyone was sat outside drinking in beer gardens as per usual after that initial 7 week lockdown.

the problem is the the data that counter's these. for example south africa's massive spike in the last couple of months when its summer over there.

same with the southern USA where they spiked in the summer.

I can see the USA being air conditioning based but not sure how much AC there is in general in SA.


Summer defiantly did some good for us mind you, but that could just be "outside"

 

[carlosthejackal]

I’d imagine Christmas and new year played a large part in infections not falling at the start of lockdown. As of now rates are falling in all regions.

 

[kaz7]

Yes I agree but where is the Government road map to recovery? They should be planning now and giving dates back for normality and telling people when they can do stuff.

You just complained boris dates have been wrong , nobody knows, stop believing them

 

[ayrshire_blue]

That sounds like positive news.

Quite sure I had Bamlanivimab in an Indonesian restaurant once...

I see he's updated it with a follow up, basically used the analogy of this type of treatment as giving a person a fish to feed for a day, where vaccines are the equivalent of teaching a person to fish. Ie vaccines are still the long term goal which teaches immune system how to respond robustly for much longer, but these more of a stop gap temporary measure. Still, good news I suppose. Anything which can help.