Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Churchlawtonblue said:
listening to Hancock last night talking about the south african variant, on the one hand he was saying it isnt any more dangerous than the normal covid just more contagious but on the other they are doing all they can to stop it including mass testing. Its clearly already here and in bigger numbers than they know given that about a third of people dont have symptoms, and test and trace isnt that effective, so all the mass testing seems a bit pointless especially if its not more dangerous. Unless of course it isnt?
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An individual case is not more dangerous. Faster spread of the variant makes it more dangerous. We were too slow to restrict access to our borders and the testing is an attempt to limit the spread of the South African variant before it is wide spread.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
judging by everything previous - I’m guessing this will spread rapidly everywhere.
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It depends just how transmissible it is. If it's R(t) is less than the UK variant then it will decline but if it's slightly more transmissible it could expand. I think it might be more of a fishing expedition to see how much of it there is out there. The worry of course is vaccine evasion but that you would expect to happen slowly. If we can reduce the amount of variant strain then that cuts the risk too
 
marcus said:
Awful experience last night. My mum is 71 and in the last leg of her losing battle with cancer.
got to hers last night and saw her vaccine offer letter.
shes bed ridden now and as she said with a chuckle, “whats the point in having it done”.

its bad news that is magnified because of covid that gets me down. With not a lot of fun in life currently the shit seems ten times worse

god for a bit of normality!!!!!!
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My mum is end of life cancer and got an offer of the jab a week last Saturday. At that point she was managing to get up each day, get dressed etc But hadn’t left the house since early December. 4 of us took her for her jab, using car and wheelchair. Big mistake. She hasnt got out of bed since and has gone downhill rapidly. I don’t think it’s the vaccine, just the whole effort. I so wish we hadn’t bothered.
 
artfuldodger said:
My mum is end of life cancer and got an offer of the jab a week last Saturday. At that point she was managing to get up each day, get dressed etc But hadn’t left the house since early December. 4 of us took her for her jab, using car and wheelchair. Big mistake. She hasnt got out of bed since and has gone downhill rapidly. I don’t think it’s the vaccine, just the whole effort. I so wish we hadn’t bothered.
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took my mum(she's 82 next month) for the jab at the Etihad a week last Monday,couldn't lift her head up til the weekend,wiped her clean out,said she won't be going back for the 2nd jab....
 
artfuldodger said:
My mum is end of life cancer and got an offer of the jab a week last Saturday. At that point she was managing to get up each day, get dressed etc But hadn’t left the house since early December. 4 of us took her for her jab, using car and wheelchair. Big mistake. She hasnt got out of bed since and has gone downhill rapidly. I don’t think it’s the vaccine, just the whole effort. I so wish we hadn’t bothered.
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That’s sad to hear mate.
 
Rammy Blue said:
I think that was always likely to happen, hopefully the vaccine programme should assist and then the pharma companies can be busily adjusting their vaccines for later use.
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From a lot of reports a few months ago it was suggested as the roll out of vaccines ramps up the mutations that help the virus get past the vaccine will get promoted in the natural selection of the virus. as in the harder we make it for it to transmit the more it will change to make it easier for it transmit :/
 
twosips said:
Hmmm.

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The critical thing that these people always miss is transmissibility is totally irrelevant. No-one cares about transmissibility from a healthcare perspective. The virus version of the common cold is quite transmissible but no-one really cares about that because it is a mild infection.

What is missing in the data for these recent variants is the evidence of changes that will lead to an increase in moderate to severe COVID (and mortality). For all we know they may decrease mortality which would actually be a very welcome variant!

It's just highly unlikely that a vaccine evading strain will emerge whilst a vaccinated population doesn't exist. Vaccine evading strains can only become selected because of the impact of vaccines. Until then the virus remains novel and will tear through unvaccinated populations as it did before until it encounters immune systems that are already prepared for it. It is here that selective mutations occur that may cause problems for the vaccine.

The Moderna vaccine has recently gone through trials assessing efficacy against the UK strain and it was found to be 85% effective. I really wouldn't worry, almost everything you read on strains even from doctors and epidemiologist is for now speculative and lacking in evidence.

The evidence so far from the larger vaccinated populations in Israel and clinical trials is the vaccines we have available are extremely effective and almost unbelievably effective actually.

Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine Retains Neutralizing Activity Against Emerging Variants First Identified in the U.K. and the Republic of South Africa | Moderna, Inc.

Out of an abundance of caution, Moderna launches clinical program to boost immunity to emerging variants Manuscript posted to preprint server; company to host conference call once manuscript is available CAMBRIDGE, Mass. --(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 25, 2021-- Moderna Inc .
investors.modernatx.com investors.modernatx.com
 
Rammy Blue said:
I think that was always likely to happen, hopefully the vaccine programme should assist and then the pharma companies can be busily adjusting their vaccines for later use.
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I just don't buy into the theory that it was inevitable. Sorry mods for mixing politics with this thread but it really can't be helped on this occasion because the two things go hand in hand. Part of the reason for the Brexit vote was in order to 'take control of our own borders' yet we first heard about this strain before Christmas. Since then it's been far too little, too late. We're still an island at the end of the day so could have used that to our advantage, completely closed the borders and enforced the strictest of quarantine and isolation period for those who are returning to the UK from anywhere in the world.

I feel that if we could turn back clocks, we'd have done that in February 2020, yet when a new potential problem was discovered or at least made public in December 2020 we've still been slow to react and done so in a half measured manner.

Again, sorry for mixing politics here but it's impossible not to. I just don't see this strain being over here as something we couldn't avoid, we could if we tried.
 
grunge said:
From a lot of reports a few months ago it was suggested as the roll out of vaccines ramps up the mutations that help the virus get past the vaccine will get promoted in the natural selection of the virus. as in the harder we make it for it to transmit the more it will change to make it easier for it transmit :/
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That might be true but, at the same time, it was suggested that the mutations would be less harmful and that hasn’t been the case.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
That might be true but, at the same time, it was suggested that the mutations would be less harmful and that hasn’t been the case.
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the suggestions that it will become less deadly are valid as natural selection suggests that if the virus kills the host the host isn't spreading it anymore. making it far harder for more deadly versions to spread. but that has a whole host of technicalities ( how easy the spread is, asymptomatic spread, incubation periods, how long until mortality etc etc ) to it and can take decades rather than months, It may well become a common cold variant eventually.


Right now, Lockdowns and Vaccines are making it harder for the virus to transmit which will mean the more transmissible or vaccine tolerant variants will be promoted.

However no sign that any variant has bypassed the vaccine yet. But this is why the next few months its key people obey the lockdowns so these variants cant spread if they do form.
 
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