Alan Harper's Tash
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- Joined
- 12 Dec 2010
- Messages
- 48,893
Difference is this time schools are operating around 50% capacity already. Teachers are in school teaching classes every day since January. Our school has 330 pupils, first lockdown there were 30 kids in, this time 176 are in. This isn’t untypical. So getting the rest in shouldn’t cause huge spikes like it did in September. Plus by Mar 8th we’ll have vaccines done for around 23 million (virtually every body over 60 and those at most risk).
The vaccine takes weeks to take full effect, so I still think my point stands.
Using your figures, opening up fully more than doubles the risk of the r number rising.