Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Are there any studies linking the rate of change of Covid - increasing/decreasing- with the % of population in the countries where it is going up or down who have been vaccinated?

That seems something that ought to tell us if the vaccine and / or other factors are behind any rises or falls.

It will probably be a mixture of factors but you would expect some correlation between % vaccinated and relative falls.

If not then vaccines are not going to be the answer unless coupled with other things like restrictions indefinitely or accepting a minimum level of Covid as now endemic and trying to normalise expectations.

These are conversations the world is going to have to have soon. As I imagine most people see vaccines as a magic wand that will make Covid vanish and it is likely we will be very fortunate for it to be quite that simple. And maybe we need to manage the expectations of the public as vaccine = release from risk = immediately go do all the stuff we have been denied for a year or more becomes a recipe for another wave by taking freedom too far if not careful.
 
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Healdplace said:
Are there any studies linking the rate of change of Covid - increasing/decreasing- with the % of population in the countries where it is going up or down who have been vaccinated?

That seems something that ought to tell us if the vaccine and / or other factors are behind any rises or falls.

It will probably be a mixture of factors but you would expect some correlation between % vaccinated and relative falls.

If not then vaccines are not going to be the answer unless coupled with other things like restrictions indefinitely or accepting a minimum level of Covid as now endemic.

These are conversations the world is going to have to have soon.
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Lets say we can produce a final tally ...6 months time notwithstanding the virus will still be with us.
Would that indicate the health and age of nations relative to each other in Jan 2020?....and lets face it...the uk would have been in pretty poor shape...
 
inbetween said:
Of course it will vary country by country. Eastern Europe is probably amongst the worst places for COVID in the world right now but the trend generally is flattening or heading downwards. More critically this trend is happening in places where restrictions are more lax compared to the UK which makes no sense.

COVID doesn't work like this, COVID exponentially increases in places where transmission is made possible. The only factor acting against this must be herd immunity (very unlikely) or the vaccines.

The US for me is the best example, they have vaccinated more people than anyone else and they have the most unrestrictive society compared to anyone else. They should be seeing crazy numbers of cases but actually both cases and hospitalisations are now reducing despite no changes to society that would cause that to happen.
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The US is interesting as the drop is comparable with UK but UK has been fighting the UK strain that the US hasn't been hit with particularly yet. Canada has shown a similar plummet and plataue that the US has shown but there vaccinations are no where near the rate of the US. Maybe the resurgence in some countries and platue in others is the UK strain taking effect.

Something is going on in the northern America's thats for sure. Maybe the cold weather having an impact on the virus's survivability.

we're certianly on the right track which is excellent. we just need to not let our guard down just yet.
 
Scotland data:

11 deaths - was 27 last week

498 cases - was 581 last week

157 Greater Glasgow, 107 Lanarkshire, 73 Lothian

3.1 % positivity - was 3.3% last week

666 Patients - down 60 on yesterday - was 924 last week

64 ventilated - down 5 on yesterday - was 80 last week

Another really good set of data down across the board.

Patients falling almost a third week to week is remarkable.

Two weeks today there were 1222 in hospital and 98 on ventilators and three weeks ago it was 1500 and 110 on ventilators
 
Scotland vaccinations update:

1, 717, 672 first doses given - 29, 064 today - was 26, 729 yesterday & 26, 949 last week

108, 197 second doses given - 8139 today - was 7508 yesterday & 8679 last week

96% of all in the 65 - 69 range vaccinated

59% of all in the 60 - 65 range vaccinated

36% of all in the 55 - 59 range vaccinated

27% of all in the 50 - 54 range vaccinated
 
Sad to see my favourite island in trouble - the Isle of Man. 35 new cases there in latest numbers. Up from just 5 last week. That is a big jump relatively. No deaths lately is the good news. But lockdown re-imposed and traced to a ferry worker on the daily trips from the island to and from the mainland.

Easy to talk New Zealand and isolation as pops up in here from time to time. But they are in the middle of nowhere not in the Irish Sea on an island where atop its highest point you can see England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland all at the same time (when Manannan's Mantle is not around at least) - the only place in the British Isles where you can do that.

Which rather shows the problem with comparing these islands to more remote parts of the world.

The IOM could never survive isolation. Too dependent. It has had to cancel the TT two Summers running which will have decimated much of its economy.
 
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Some new data out today that I am waiting for the experts here to comment upon.

Seems to look good and prove that we made all the right choices about use of the AZ vaccine and it is stunningly efficient when given in two doses separated by 12 weeks and less so when done in the faster method.

Also that antibodies were still strong at 90 days afterwards suggesting it was not waning in efficiency.

Looks very promising. And such a shame the world got talked out of it by a mixture of rushed data that was promising and we gambled on being vindicated in time (as they were) and politics.

It is often wrongly assumed we rushed it through but remember it was not the first approved in the UK. The Pfizer one was up and running for nearly a month before AZ was approved when the further test data we waited for became available.

There was a huge mis-messaging on this vaccine that made us look like outlaws and the world the sheriff of Nothavingem.

Sadly it looks like that will have cost large numbers of lives.
 
Healdplace said:
Sad to see my favourite island in trouble - the Isle of Man. 35 new cases there in latest numbers. Up from just 5 last week. That is a big jump relatively. No deaths lately is the good news. But lockdown re-imposed and traced to a ferry worker on the daily trips from the island to and from the mainland.

Easy to talk New Zealand and isolation as pops up in here from time to time. But they are in the middle of nowhere not in the Irish Sea on an island where atop its highest point you can see England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland all at the same time (when Manannan's Mantle is not around at least) - the only place in the British Isles where you can do that.

Which rather shows the problem with comparing these islands to more remote parts of the world.

The IOM could never survive isolation. Too dependent. It has had to cancel the TT two Summers running which will have decimated much of its economy.
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i'm afraid to say i've seen England, Wales, Ireland, Isle of Man and Scotland all from Scafell Pike a number of times!!

wish i was there this weekend
 
shemnel said:
i'm afraid to say i've seen England, Wales, Ireland, Isle of Man and Scotland all from Scafell Pike a number of times!!

wish i was there this weekend
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Me too. But not ashamed. First went there for a family wedding by steam train and steam ship. Many years ago,
 
174 England hospital deaths by region

41 Midlands, 40 North West, 25 NE & Yorkshire, 22 London, 20 South East, 14 East, 12 South West.

Liverpool sadly again miles ahead of everywhere in the UK at 19 of the 40 in NW. Only one in double figures in England today.

Tameside at 4 and Manchester 3 next highest in NW.

This tragic legacy of Merseyside being 'rewarded' by going into lesser restrictions so attracting people into it because of the flawed tier system is not getting the media attention it should.

At the very least these lives sacrificed should stop that tier structure ever being resurrected.

About time the media did their job on things like this.

Plenty of us saw this coming in here. It needs calling out to stop it being repeated.
 
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