Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
Impossible to generalise as local conditions are quite different I think?

And even if you believed it was possible, what conclusion do you draw from (just for instance) Bolton?

Cases are going to surge again?

Cases reach a plateau then fall?

View attachment 21193

I certainly don't feel confident extrapolating anything from that
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I have been reporting in the nightly Pop Score updates and the borough by borough report across this Delta wave in here the other day for all 10 GM boroughs over the past 2 months - Bolton is the best in the county from the worst in April - but its score is not far off where it was at the height of its outbreak and has trended up for some days now.

It is certainly not evidence GM is under control in terms of cases anyway,

Though 34,000 cases as we know means a very different thing now than it did in January pre vaccines.
 
Benny sounding a lot more cautious now.
So will the Saj wear a mask now when he's on train because it was only the other week he said he wouldn't?
Confused non conformist from Neasden.
 
Madness really. Weather's mediocre, think I'll kick about at home til it improves and I can go on long summer walks. Because, fuck people.

"Eww, COVID!"
 
Get out and catch it is what they are saying. Fingers crossed you dont get severely I'll. Good luck all. See you in august unless the north gets locked down cause of southern (Wimbledon Wembley) antics
 
Len Rum said:
Benny sounding a lot more cautious now.
So will the Saj wear a mask now when he's on train because it was only the other week he said he wouldn't?
Confused non conformist from Neasden.
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Who's Benny?
 
Just sounds to me like nothings changed, except the govt is handing ownership of risk down to the individual, and can just about claim to have followed through the commitment to the 'irreversible' roadmap. When it gets firmly reversed in a couple of weeks it'll be our fault not the govt.
 
BlueAnorak said:
My partners +ve test has put 63 kids and 3 other teachers into isolation. 127 Heathrow security workers pinged this morning too.
3 people have to isolate on average for every case so that's 90k a day over 10 days over a million now.
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My daughter had 10 days a week or so again, been back 4 days and now another 10 days. It’s rife in schools and after school clubs currently.
 
Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago



SOUTH


East UP 114 to 2211 V 1703

London UP 532 to 4201 V 3343 - Highest since January here now

South East UP 614 to 3994 V 2632 - another big rise here in the south closing in on North West numbers

South West UP 828 to 2953 V 1702 - the biggest rise of all today here as the South really closes in en masse with the North.








MIDLANDS



East DOWN 59 to 2227 V 1753

West UP 150 to 3020 V 2383


WM back in the 3000 cases club






NORTH



North East DOWN 714 to 3012 V 2511 - a really big fall after a big jump.




Yorkshire UP 117 to 3632 V 2967


AND



NORTH WEST UP 568 to 4769 V 3945 - Still the highest region but only a few hundred ahead of most of the rest when a month ago it was thousands ahead of each one.






Past weeks NW numbers are 3945 - 3960 - 4950 - 5203 - 6487 - 4758 - 4231 - 4769

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 4168 - 3870 - 4856 - 4366 - 5033 - 3997 - 3989 - 3945




GM numbers in past week 1678 - 1605 - 2031- 2224 - 2717 - 2025 - 1770 - 2043


Total in GM from the NW cases Total - 42.8% - UP from 41.8% yesterday and from 42.5% a week ago,

Pretty flat now.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

OVER THE 4 DAYS OF WEEKEND (NOT REPORTED FRIDAY EITHER DUE TO NHS DATA PROBLEM)

Big rises unfortunately, - THOUGH admissions are not shooting up,

(Two days behind so data is Wednesday/Thursday/ Friday/Saturday - which matters as few admitted at weekend

Went from 458 Tuesday to 489 - 488 - 451 and 442

The previous week's Tuesday to Saturday admissions was 331 - 295 - 307 - 323 - 396

That looks quite encouraging to me.



NW had the most admissions over the 4 days - 103 - 108 - 108 - 106 - that last up wk to wk from 80

NE & Yorkshire went 111 - 121 - 113 - 103 - up wk to wk from 82

Midlands week to week from 50 to 82 Saturday and London from 42 to 64 Saturday
 
Modelling has been released alongside today's announcement.

Makes it very clear we should buckle up for a bumpy ride, and also why Johnson has changed his tune on the need for caution.

Summary

The scale of the resurgence in hospital admissions after 19th July is highly uncertain and depends on unknowable factors including how behaviours change in the coming weeks and months. Many modelled scenarios show a peak in hospital admissions well below that of January 2021, but SPI-M-O cannot rule out a wave of a similar or even larger scale

How fast people's behaviour returns to normal is a key uncertainty; a rapid return to pre-pandemic mixing will bring high, rapid spike, potentially though not necessarily likely above the January peak for hospitalisations. In other words, if we all regard "Freedom day" as actually being "Freedom day" then we're fucked.

If behaviours take longer to return to pre-pandemic levels (and / or if the seasonal effect of transmission is higher), then the peak of the summer resurgence is likely to be lower. This would result in a wave that is broader, or partially shifted to autumn and winter

The good news is

The next peak in deaths will almost certainly be considerably smaller than that of January 2021.

There's gazillions of different sensitivities explored in the report but just for instance, here's total hospital occupancy with different assumptions on behaviour returning to normal. I don't understand why the "Spring 2020 peak" line is lower than the shown peak(!) but it gives a general impression of the uncertainty of the impact of behavioural change. There's no difference in vaccine assumptions between those scenarios.

1626111219101.png


I've not looked at any of the assumptions on vaccine efficacy and takeup, but they're all in there, and I know there are posters who like to run the ruler over them.
 
Len Rum said:
Freedom for the irresponsible to behave irresponsibly.
Freedom for the selfish.
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The only things not open at the moment are nightclubs and larger crowds at events that have crowds. The vulnerable at the moment will be isolating whether we're in a total lockdown or not. Opening up things further won't alter their situation. The majority can't stay prisoners forever for the minority. That sounds harsh but it's always been the way. We could stay with restrictions for the next ten years and not get rid of covid and the vulnerable will still be at risk. At some point we have to.live with it and choose whether we want to live a normal life or not. Everything carries a risk. It's not an easy solution but it has to be done.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA

IN PATIENTS

THIS DATA IS FRIDAY TO TODAY

Big numbers now as every region starts adding numbers and sadly North West not falling or flattening yet as I hoped

North West went over the 4 days 596 - 648 - 655 - 703 - 738 V previous week 498 - 514 - 506 - 544 - 531
~
So a rise of 142 versus 33 wk to wk - not what we would hope to see from the NW right now

NW is still easily the highest region which is a concern as other regions are shooting up,

EAST went 102 - 108 - 103 - 117 - 148 - up 46 v last week up 22

LONDON went 411 - 435 - 440 - 467 - 514 - up 103 v 35 last week

MIDLANDS went 389 - 419 - 441 - 456 - 499 - up 110 v 90 last week

NE & YORKSHIRE went 442 - 473 - 511 - 543 - 592 - up 150 v 68 last week. THE RISING CONCERN IS HERE

SOUTH EAST went 170 - 164 - 156 - 158 - 180 - up just 10 v 20 last week. FALLING???

SOUTH WEST went 99 - 105 - 113 - 130 - 133 - up 34 v 25 last week


TOTAL PATIENTS IN ENGLAND HOSPITALS

Over the long weekend went:- 2209 - 2352 - 2429 - 2564 AND IS 2798 TODAY


A rise of 589 just over the weekend. By far the largest jump recently.

Last week the numbers went 1560 - 1611 - 1636 - 1744 - 1888 - UP 328.

The last 7 days to today is up 910 - last week it was 423 - wk before 175.

This is starting to look on track for 10,000 England alone patients in coming weeks as Roubaix suggested and I hoped not,.

Much less sure of that now,
 
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