Coronavirus (2021) thread

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UK PATIENTS AS OF TODAY:





ENGLAND 5543 SCOTLAND 1107 NORTHERN IRELAND 384 WALES 532

UK TOTAL 7566

(DOWN 140 TODAY)





VENTILATED UK AS OF TODAY


ENGLAND 774 SCOTLAND 94 NORTHERN IRELAND 25 WALES 47

UK TOTAL 940


(DOWN 47 TODAY)
 
everythingchangesbutblue said:
I don't know why you bother mate. There is a good 5-10 posters on this thread whose sole purpose is to minimise the impact of covid. They want it gone because "Their alright Jack" That's why some are now attacking Healdplace's post, it's not what they want to hear.
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I think at the root, many people are afraid it's not over and struggle to cope with uncertainty.

It's the same thing with conspiracy theories, it's actually more comforting to believe somebody, even if malevolent, is controlling things than the reality that many things are beyond our control.
 
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The fourteen upper tier local authorities with the lowest vaccination rate (first jab) are all in London (roughly 57% to 63%). That represents close to 50% of the capital's population. Bloody hell.

If they are going to bring in a vaccine passport, I'd rather they focused it solely in London.
 
ENGLAND REGIONS


EAST FALLS BY 470 - TO 2525 V 1956 - UP 569 IN WEEK

LONDON FALLS BY 197 - TO 2450 V 2073 - UP 377 IN WEEK

SOUTH EAST FALLS BY 440 TO 3396 V 2521 - UP 875 IN WEEK

SOUTH WEST UP BY 71 TO 2590 V 1403 - UP 1187 AND ANOTHER HUGE RISE IN THE SOUTH


STILL SOME BIG WEEK TO WEEK RISES BUT SOUTH EAST FALLS BERHIND NORTH WEST AGAIN



EAST MIDLANDS FALLS BY 214 TO 2736 V 2295 UP 441 IN WEEK

WEST MIDLANDS UP 198 - TO 3288 V 2454 - UP 734 IN WEEK ANOTHER SIZEABLE JUMP

NORTH EAST FALLS BY 202 TO 1230 V 1293 - DOWN 63 IN WEEK - WKLY ONLY FALL TODAY IN THE NORTH

YORKSHIRE FALLS BY 578 TO 2632 V 2106 - UP 526 IN WEEK


AND


NORTH WEST FALLS BY 183 TO 3519 V 3119 - UP 400 IN WEEK


THE RISES HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH BUT EVERYONE UP THOUGH NW DID BETTER THAN MOST WK TO WK


GM AS A PERCENTAGE OF NORTH WEST CASES

TODAY 31,5% DOWN FROM 32.6% YESTERDAY - BETTER THAN YESTERDAY

HOWEVER WELL DOWN FROM 35.1% LAST WEEK

GOOD DAY IN GM
 
roubaixtuesday said:
You either don't understand, or are deliberately misrepresenting the modelling.
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Really? , Ok no problem, show me the figures that show daily hospitalisations in England have increased this past week to two weeks?

This data would be in line with the most optimistic scenario represented by their scientists green model would it not?
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Really? , Ok no problem, show me the figures that show daily hospitalisations in England have increased this past week to two weeks?

This data would be in line with the most optimistic scenario represented by their scientists green model would it not?
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Read the reports.

If you can't be bothered, just the most relevant quotes I provided above.
 
Healdplace said:
NORTH WEST AND GM HIGHLIGHTS

North West cases DOWN 183 today - to 3519

But UP week to week by 400 from 3119.

GM was DOWN 98 today to 1108 - which is a good split of the NW fall

But GM is UP 14 from 1094 last week - which is a VERY GOOD low split of the 400 increase in the NW.

So a pretty good day all round for GM.


Stockport for the fourth time this week had the highest cases on 179 - but that is down 17 on yesterday and only up wk to wk by 8. Not the most today. And low enough to save them from going above Manchester as the highest weekly case numbers. But only just!

Tameside again had the worst day - more so than Stockport - with the highest Pop Score rise and also had 28 cases more than Manchester on 160. Which shows Zoe has Tameside all wrong as with its neighbour Stockport both are the highest numbers in GM now in relarive tandem. Though Zoe has got right the small signs of progress in Stockport today.

And to cap this most unusual day Wigan on 139 made it three boroughs who outscored Manchester today. That is VERY unusual given the population differences.

On just 132 that is the lowest Manchester score in ages. They easily scored the lowest Pop Score today again, And are top of the tree in terms of lowest weekly Pop Score in GM right now. Also rare for Manchester.

Odd how Manchester and Stockport are going in such different directions when Manchester has the lowest vaccination rate and Stockport the highest in the region. Must be young people/school related.

Four boroughs sub 100 and Salford on 100 exactly. Bury had the lowest on 55. Bolton, Oldham and Rochdale the other low scorers in the 70s.
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Said it before and I’ll say again, less natural immunity.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
This, again, reflects that the purpose of modelling is widely misunderstood.

There is huge uncertainty, that's the reality.

Berating the experts who tell you it's uncertain will not make it any more certain.

We have to best manage the uncertainty. Modeling informs how to do that, it does not pretend precision which is unattainable.
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I should know what models are for because I get paid to build them every day. I get paid for my opinion on what my best guess of what's going to happen. If I stood up in front of my clients and supplied a huge variation of outcomes like these guys do I'd be out of a job within a month.
 
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