Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS:


HEADLINE:- UK PATIENTS BACK OVER 7000 BUT VENTILATORS FALL A LITTLE.

THE NUMBERS ARE PRETTY FLAT



PATIENTS


ENGLAND 5289 up

SCOTLAND 908 down

WALES 515 down

N.IRELAND 345 down



TOTAL 7057 a rise of 30 today



VENTILATORS


ENGLAND 655 down

SCOTLAND 50 down

WALES 47 down

N IRELAND 27 up


TOTAL 779 a fall of 6 today
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With positive cases rising and the vaccine working, the knock on effect will be more and more people in hospital ‘with’ Covid. I know of a paediatric ITU where a third of the children are in hospital ‘with Covid’ but not one of them would be in because of covid and all of them would be in if they hadn’t tested positive (in a test that was only given because they were in hospital).
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
With positive cases rising and the vaccine working, the knock on effect will be more and more people in hospital ‘with’ Covid. I know of a paediatric ITU where a third of the children are in hospital ‘with Covid’ but not one of them would be in because of covid and all of them would be in if they hadn’t tested positive (in a test that was only given because they were in hospital).
Click to expand...
Are you a specialist paediatrician mate?
 
ZOE SUMMARY TODAY

DID NOT UPDATE ZOE YESTERDAY AS IT WAS LATE BUT HERE IS THEIR TAKE


NORTH WEST BACK NOT BEING OFFICIALLY THE WORST AREA IN THE UK AFTER ONE DAY


PREDICTED CASES UP A BIT AGAIN- But flat really ON 70, 098 UP by 105 FROM 69, 993 - AND FROM 69, 860 AND 69, 845 - in previous days

ONGOING INFECTIONS - 960, 838 UP FROM 958, 943 - smallest rise in weeks (just 1895) AFTER RISES OF 5509, 5390 & 5673 in past days .

As you see it is going VERY flat.

Today week to week it us up from 913, 526 - a weekly RISE of 47, 312 DOWN even from the day before when the weekly rise was 53, 619 - and WELL DOWN from the rise week to week of 61,427 the day before that.

So cases on Zoe are seemingly up slightly but slowing.

A week ago the week to week rise was 100, 593 - So this trend looks to have been very clearly falling.

Ongoing case numbers will lag daily cases as if you catch Covid you will be a Covid case for a week or two.


Trends are all we can really read into the constantly tweaked data on Zoe these days,



Current TOP THREE NUMBERS:-


EAST MIDLANDS BACK in top spot but DOWN ON 1130 / 1501 FROM 1134 / 1507

NORTH WEST now second after also going DOWN SLIGHTLY ON 1148 / 1477 FROM 1158 / 1490

WALES stays third but is UP ON 1077 / 1514 FROM 1054 / 1489


WEST MIDLANDS, NORTH EAST & YORKSHIRE are in 4th. 5th and 6th.

THIS IS THE ENTIRE TOP TIER WATCH ZONE


And SCOTLAND remains clearly the best - and the only one in the LOWEST watch zone - but UP slightly too on 567 / 845 FROM 558/ 836



NORTHERN IRELAND and all the southern regions form the middle watch zone and rising, ONLY the South West (at 959) is not into 4 figures now on its second measure as the numbers rise everywhere and are closer together.



REGIONALLY:-

In the NW they have both Liverpool down under 13K and St Helens UP on 12K ~

BUT Warrington fast shooting up and just under 20K as highest in that area. Warrington has been high for a while but has really accelerated in the past few days



You will notice Blackpool deaths have started to appear often AND the numbers from the Fylde coast are SHOOTING UP again today to some VERY high numbers - Fylde on 30, 106 & Wyre on 48, 273 - two of the highest in the region. And Wyre is one of the highest if not the highest in the UK I have ever seen. BIG TROUBLE HERE AS A LOT OF ELDERLY RETIRED PEOPLE LIVE IN THIS AREA.


Though the Lake District is now happily falling a lot Lancaster/Morecambe is still very high on 26K.



Cheshire East FALLS for fifth day running after several weeks of rises (on 15, 384 DOWN from 16, 266 and 17, 296 v Cheshire West UP on 19, 960 FROM 18, 544 and17, 098 -

Indeed Cheshire East well below its neighbour to the west and a big reversal here in past few days.

Moreover with Stockport going UP to its highest in a while yet again Cheshire East is now also BELOW Stockport for first time in over a month. Showing the big reversal in fortune of these two neighbour boroughs.


As for GM - Not a good day again for Stockport - up the most of all boroughs for second day running as others fall.

The GM order according to Zoe with to nearest K numbers is:-

Tameside DOWN to 25K, Trafford DOWN to 23K. Stockport THE biggest riser again today up to 19K. Its highest for weeks. Not boding well. Bolton up quite a bit too on 15K. With Salford just below on 15K too. And Manchester down a tad on 14 K. Wigan also rises to 14K. Bury though is up again into 13K only just behind Wigan now. Oldham has fallen for a week now and drops into the lower watch zone on 6727 and actually IS doing so in the real cases too. Indeed yesterday Oldham on Zoe overtook Rochdale to become best in GM as Rochdake fell only slightly to 6904. On the very day Oldham did indeed post the best day in GM in the real numbers. So Zoe got this spot on.
 
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Weekly ONS Covid prevalence shows England cases rising to One in 60 - UP from one in 70 last week

And Wales at One in 45 is UP too on last week. And as you see THE most infected part of the UK.

But N Ireland is DOWN at One in 120

And Scotland One in 80 also DOWN on last week
 
WALES DATA

NB THIS IS JUST ONE DAY. LAST WEEK FRIDAY REPORTED THU & FRI TOGETHER DUE TO ANOTHER OF THE VERY 'RARE' DATA ISSUES WE SEEM TO GET IN THE UK.

SO TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT WITH THIS COMPARISON

15 deaths - (was 23 last week)

3130 cases - (was 5705 last week - ie about 2850 per day)

515 patients - was 461 last week

47 ventilated - waa 41 last week

Hospital data unaffected by the two day case data last week, of course
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Better news here today slight fall and NW back down to average numbers

69 with 7 North West - was 70 with 10 NW last Friday & 80 with 6 NW week before

However, the 13 October add on at 36 was well up on last weeks 26 and creates a day two total of 47 - easily the highest in October so far.

The other day to day add ons ARE down week to week though. But at 62 11 October's 4 day total is the highest for a fortnight at that stage.

10 October added just 1 so is at 54 after 5 days and starts a new week. That is the lowest first day number since 1 AUG.

However, the three days behind it look all but certain to be higher than last week and as noted 11 October at 62 already is well up on the 51 last week.

12 October would have to add only 7 over the next two days to avoid being higher and even more improbable 13 October would have to add 2 over the next 3 days to avoid being higher week to week.

So seems like this current week England hospital deaths total is all but sure to go up for the first time in a month.

However, small changes. Not a big increase. Is the good news.
 
ENGLAND 69 HOSPITAL DEATHS - DETAILS

By Region:-

East 4, London 10, Midlands 16, NE & Yorkshire 21, North West 7. South East 7. South West 4

Most by trust:- 7 Nottingham, 6 in London Free

NW Trusts:- 2 each in Bolton and (North) Lancashire, 1 each in East Cheshire, Salford & Warrington


By age:-

40 - 59 (10), 60 - 79 (31), 80 PLUS (28)
 
ZOE SUMMARY TODAY

SADLY THE GOOD NEWS FOR NORTH WEST WAS VERY SHORT LIVED!


NORTH WEST BACK AGAIN AS OFFICIALLY THE WORST AREA IN THE UK AFTER ONE DAY



PREDICTED CASES CREEPING UP AGAIN- ON 71, 245 UP BY 1147 FROM 70, 098 AFTER RISES OF 105, 133 AND 15 in previous days

It was 70, 105 last Friday.

ONGOING INFECTIONS - 967, 892 - UP by 4361 from 963, 531 - still slowing down and flattening after rises of 4981 yesterday and 5687 previous day .

Today week to week it us up from 923, 396 - a weekly RISE of 44, 496 following a rise of 47, 312 day before. The graph of the ongoing cases numbers on Zoe is clearly now flattening.


Ongoing case numbers will always lag daily cases as if you catch Covid you will be a Covid case for a week or two but a new case only once.


Trends are all we can really read into the constantly tweaked data on Zoe these days,



Current TOP THREE NUMBERS:-


NORTH WEST now TOP again after going UP ON 1176 / 1510 FROM 1148 / 1477


EAST MIDLANDS BACK in second but UP too 1147 / 1521 FROM 1130 / 1501

NORTH EAST is now in third after going up in the daily data too on 1032 / 1596


WALES FALLS to fourth but is UP ON 1092 / 1532 FROM 1077 / 1514


WEST MIDLANDS & YORKSHIRE are in 5th and 6th. Neither far behind the above group,

THIS IS THE ENTIRE TOP TIER WATCH ZONE


And SCOTLAND remains clearly the best - and the only one in the LOWEST watch zone - but UP too on 598 / 883 FROM 567 / 845



NORTHERN IRELAND and all the southern regions form the middle watch zone and rising, ONLY the South West (at 977) is not into 4 figures now on its second measure as the numbers rise everywhere and are closer together. South West looks sure to get over 1000 too any day now.



REGIONALLY:-

In the NW they have both Liverpool down under 13K and St Helens UP on 12K ~

BUT Warrington fast shooting up and now on 20, 687 as highest in the Merseyside area. Warrington has been high for a while but has really accelerated in the past few days



The Fylde coast area is still today on some VERY high numbers - Fylde on 30, 805 & Wyre on 48, 136 - two of the highest in the region.


Though the Lake District is now happily falling as is Lancaster/Morecambe on 24K.



Cheshire East FALLS for fifth day running after several weeks of rises (on 15. 121 from 15, 384 &16, 266 v Cheshire West UP on 21, 132 from 19, 960 & 18, 544

Indeed Cheshire East well below its neighbour to the west and a big reversal here in past few days.

Moreover with Stockport STIL shooting UP and on Zoe at its highest in weeks yet again today Cheshire East is now also far BELOW Stockport.


As for GM - Another big rise for Stockport - up the most of all boroughs for third day running as others fall. And into the highest watch zone for first time in a week or two. The highest it has been during its big case rises. And now very close to becoming worst in GM again as the ones above are falling steadily.

The GM order according to Zoe with to nearest K numbers is:-

Tameside DOWN to 23K, Trafford DOWN to 22K. Stockport THE biggest riser again today and by more than yesterday to well over 20K on 20, 807.If it rises by the same as today and the two above fall as they did today will be worst in GM on Zoe again tomorrow. Wigan is also rising daily now too in the high 15Ks. With Salford now into fifth place in mid 15Ks though both of these are now well below Stockport. Bolton falls slightly just under 15K.And Manchester down now in the high 13Ks. Bury though is up again just under 13K. Oldham has fallen for a week now and drops into the lower watch zone but up a tad on 6907 but remain the best in GM as the only other sub 10K lower watch zone borough - Rochdale - was up by more today and is on 7502.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

THIS IS A BIT GOOD AND BAD BUT SOME IS VERY GOOD

32 deaths - was 16 last week - obviously a big jump here not good

2762 cases - was 2627 last week - up but not by a lot

8.2% positivity - was 7.9% last week - as above

851 patients - down 57 on yesterday - was 957 last week

45 ventilated icu - down 5 on yesterday - was 64 last week

So at least the hospital numbers are much better - though 32 deaths may have played a part, sadly.
 
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