Coronavirus (2021) thread

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shackattack said:
Travelled back to Heathrow yesterday and the queues in arrivals were shocking. Half the gates were not even open and the sheer incompetency at border control was frightening. Worrying that we will never come out of this pandemic at all and further lockdowns await as other countries return to normality
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What have queues at Heathrow got to do with coming out of a pandemic? Also, aren't we one of the few countries that are effectively back to normal?
 
Gabriel said:
More likely an underlying distrust of the state, coupled with socio-economic factors.
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Maybe so Gabriel but, for example, you have the same vaccination rates in the U.K. as New Zealand (9 out of 10 first dose and 4 out of 5 both doses) and they have values based leadership.
 
Just a snapshot of where major developed countries are on vaccination:

We're below most of Western Europe, but much better than eastern Europe.

USA is full of idiots, and Japan, Australia started late but have rocketed past us.

Overall, I guess not particularly good, or particularly bad. Perhaps the Everton of vaccination.

This is people "fully vaccinated", other measures are available.

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Gabriel said:
If one looks at the vaccination rate across Europe (not the EU), one can see a marked difference in rates in the East compared with rates in the West. Certain countries buck the trend, of course, but there is a discernible pattern.
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It looks to be weather related as much as anything to do with vaccination levels.
In addition, the EU vaccination program was 3.5 months behind ours and our delta cases started to increase 3.5 months ago - definitely a correlation (not causation but who knows)
 
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BlueHammer85 said:
COVID deaths in Russia hit a new record today and new confirmed cases remained high two days after a nine-day non-working period ended in most of the country's regions.

Some 1,211 COVID-19 deaths were reported by the state coronavirus task force, the highest number of daily deaths in the pandemic, along with 39,160 new cases.
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Only about 1/2 of the actual numbers based on Russia's yearly excess death stats.
 
BlueAnorak said:
It looks to be weather related as much as anything to do with vaccination levels.
In addition, tge EU vaccination program was 3.5 months behind ours and our delta cases started to increase 3.5 months ago - definitely a correlation (not causation but who knows)
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My apologies, I was referring to vaccination rates as opposed to current case rates. Would certainly agree with the weather comment, however.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
Maybe so Gabriel but, for example, you have the same vaccination rates in the U.K. as New Zealand (9 out of 10 first dose and 4 out of 5 both doses) and they have values based leadership.
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I was only working off the pattern I see here.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1196071/covid-19-vaccination-rate-in-europe-by-country/

Even in two 'Western' countries I know fairly well (Greece/Cyprus), there tends to be greater distrust of the state in the former than the latter, which may be feeding into their respective vaccination rates.

Is affluence a factor across the UK or only in England?
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Just a snapshot of where major developed countries are on vaccination:

We're below most of Western Europe, but much better than eastern Europe.

USA is full of idiots, and Japan, Australia started late but have rocketed past us.

Overall, I guess not particularly good, or particularly bad. Perhaps the Everton of vaccination.

This is people "fully vaccinated", other measures are available.

View attachment 29596
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These figures although interesting don't tell the full story, everyone in the UK has had the chance of vaccination I've got no idea if that's the case with other countries either by design or from starting later also, countries have been doing kids at different rates some earlier some later.
 
Gabriel said:
I was only working off the pattern I see here.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1196071/covid-19-vaccination-rate-in-europe-by-country/

Even in two 'Western' countries I know fairly well (Greece/Cyprus), there tends to be greater distrust of the state in the former than the latter, which may be feeding into their respective vaccination rates.

Is affluence a factor across the UK or only in England?
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I am not so sure Gabriel. I heard Dr Sarah Jarvis on the radio this morning comparing vaccination rates in England with deprived Bedford at 80% and a town in the South at 95% (at least one jab)
 
blue b4 the moon said:
These figures although interesting don't tell the full story, everyone in the UK has had the chance of vaccination I've got no idea if that's the case with other countries either by design or from starting later also, countries have been doing kids at different rates some earlier some later.
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Yes indeed, there is a lot more behind these figures. Nevertheless, I think it's fair to say that we're mid-table in terms of population immunity from vaccination. Some (Spain!) have done astonishingly well, truly the Manchester City of vaccination. USA are Manchester United: they think they're a big shot but actually it's amazing just how shite they are.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
It's very simple - if 1,000 people a day are being admitted, but there are 9,000 in hospital, the average stay is 9 days.

[Edit: if it stays constant - the dynamics of up and down shifts means it's not quite that simple, but admissions and inpatients hasn't shifted much for many weeks, so it's a reasonable approximation]
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I do not entirely agree with that as both England and Scotland HAVE seen a bit of a fall over the past week which is a big fraction of the total UK hospital data.

Admissions in England have fallen over the last 3 days worth of data on admissions V previous week - from 2439 to 2091 - modest but noticeable falls that are happening across most regions.

And in patients fell every single weekday last week and the numbers week to week have increased the gap BELOW the number in last week every day across the weekend even though numbers over the weekend were up by 3. Might well yet reverse but these are hints of numbers in hospital falling I think. Which you would have to expect as case numbers have dropped quite a lot over past 2 weeks.

Same is true in Scotland - these have fallen too over the past week and the gap seems to be increasing there too.

Today there are 753 in hospital - last Tuesday it was 932 and the Tuesday before 917. That looks a significant fall over the past week.

Of course, it may not last but I would say these are hopeful looking numbers.

Over the longer term and in a statistical sense I am sure you are right but the direction for the moment is a bit more hopeful is all I am trying to say.
 
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Healdplace said:
I do not entirely agree with that as both England and Scotland HAVE seen a bit of a fall over the past week which is a big fraction of the total UK hospital data.

Admissions in England have fallen Wednesday -Friday (last 3 days worth of data on admissions) V previous Wednesday to Friday - from 2439 to 2091 - modest but noticeable falls that are happening across most regions.

And in patients fell every single weekday last week and the numbers week to week have increased the gap BELOW the number in last week every day across the weekend even thoigh numbers over the weekend were up by 3. Might well yet reverse but these are hints of numbers in hospital falling I think. Which you would have to expect as case numbers have dropped quite a lot over past 2 weeks.

Same is true in Scotand - these have fallen too over the past week and the gap seems to be increasing there too.

Today there are 753 in hospital - last Tuesday it was 932 and the Tuesday before 917. That looks a significant fall over the past week.

Of course, it may not last but I would say these are hopeful looking numbers.
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Yes, I wasn't trying to claim it's perfectly accurate (far from it), but that it gives a reasonable estimate of length of stay, which is certainly around a week (9 days by this simple calc) and definitely not a few hours as claimed.

(I suspect that people who are not formally admitted aren't even included in the stats, and "hospitalisations" would be higher if they were. But not sure, and no idea how large a number that would be)
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Yes, I wasn't trying to claim it's perfectly accurate (far from it), but that it gives a reasonable estimate of length of stay, which is certainly around a week (9 days by this simple calc) and definitely not a few hours as claimed.

(I suspect that people who are not formally admitted aren't even included in the stats, and "hospitalisations" would be higher if they were. But not sure, and no idea how large a number that would be)
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No - I agree with you on the stay part. Just that there has been a recent change over the past 7 days that suggest numbers are falling. It may well reverse today. But it was definitely falling last week on all measures - admissions and in patients.

Deaths though are going up a bit as more older age groups are dying and the need for the boosters and why they are stepping up the speed is becoming obvious. North West had a lot today. Stockport alone (the outbreak all the media missed) had six on its own reported today. More than a usual month there. North West is facing the legacy of weeks of high cases that will always come last in the deaths. Though happily the case numbers in the region are well down now.
 
Gabriel said:
Is Bedford now considered deprived?
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Parts of it are pretty grim there mate. Covered Bedford in my patch when working out of Cambridge for a couple of years. I think it gets referenced for deprivation a fair bit for Southern England comparisons.

FWIW, I know there are boxers parts too. I was invited for lunch once at the house of the head of the British Association of Physicians of Indian Origin. They were doing OK lol.
 
Just a snapshot of where major developed countries are on vaccination:
roubaixtuesday said:
We're below most of Western Europe, but much better than eastern Europe.

USA is full of idiots, and Japan, Australia started late but have rocketed past us.

Overall, I guess not particularly good, or particularly bad. Perhaps the Everton of vaccination.

This is people "fully vaccinated", other measures are available.

View attachment 29596
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Is that including people that aren’t entitled to it? And does it include 12-16 that were added late but can only have 1 jab and it’s very optional?
 
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True_Blue69 said:
Is that including people that aren’t entitled to it? And does it include 12-16 that were added late but can only have 1 jab and it’s very optional?
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It's the proportion of the entire population that are fully vaccinated.

I think your first sentence might need finishing of ;-)
 
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