Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Regarding the ongoing with Covid or of Covid debate, the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries compiles a weekly summary of actual deaths versus expected deaths in order to determine excess caused by the pandemic.

Their latest published summary (week 47 2021) estimates 116k additional deaths.

The government figure is 146k so the IFA's estimate is that approximately 20% of those would have died anyway (so probably with Covid rather than of)

Mortality monitor | Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The CMI publishes regular analyses of mortality in England & Wales:

www.actuaries.org.uk

So it’s not really a debate worth having if 80% of the figures have certainly died of COVID and 20% of/with.

 

[Bluesince1979]

I hope it doesn’t take that long:-(

Have read it can be sore for a few days but there have been problems longer term, seen It mentioned that if they put the needle too high up it can cause a problem. My main sore point is very high up the arm maybe only an inch from the shoulder, hopefully I’m just being paranoid. I never got any arm pain or soreness from the first 2 jabs.

Its entirely likely/possible that mine is wear n tear of years of work n football

 

[SPIDERBOY]

I hope it doesn’t take that long:-(

Have read it can be sore for a few days but there have been problems longer term, seen It mentioned that if they put the needle too high up it can cause a problem. My main sore point is very high up the arm maybe only an inch from the shoulder, hopefully I’m just being paranoid. I never got any arm pain or soreness from the first 2 jabs.

Same,here.....nothing from first 2 jabs,was horrible after the booster.
Felt sick with the pain in my arm 2nd day after booster.

 

[grunge]

Regarding the ongoing with Covid or of Covid debate, the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries compiles a weekly summary of actual deaths versus expected deaths in order to determine excess caused by the pandemic.

Their latest published summary (week 47 2021) estimates 116k additional deaths.

The government figure is 146k so the IFA's estimate is that approximately 20% of those would have died anyway (so probably with Covid rather than of)

Mortality monitor | Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The CMI publishes regular analyses of mortality in England & Wales:

www.actuaries.org.uk

For reference to this. 170,001 deaths are registered in the UK as a contributing factor on the death certification.

Additionally, your link only covers England & Wales.

 

[hilts]

Same,here.....nothing from first 2 jabs,was horrible after the booster.
Felt sick with the pain in my arm 2nd day after booster.

How long before it went away?

 

[Bluewonder]

So it’s not really a debate worth having if 80% of the figures have certainly died of COVID and 20% of/with.

Well, this is the most definitive answer to the debate.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

A normal persons definition of a covid death means pretty much nothing. its a set of guidelines for a reason and is decided by the doctors signing the death certificate and they have to go by what actually happened in front of them.. not guessing in a crystal ball that someone may live x number of years after.

if thats what your after then your never going to get it.

I'm just indicating that most people aren't fussed, as a result.

 

[Bluewonder]

For reference to this. 170,001 deaths are registered in the UK as a contributing factor on the death certification.

Additionally, your link only covers England & Wales.

The whole of UK figures are included too.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

How long before it went away?

Eased up day 3,gone by day 4....fine now.
Maybe jabbed too high,too low?.....dunno.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

I have a BA in maths (specialising in statistics) and an MSc in Computer Science and Operational Research. I have worked for the ONS on population and health statistics in two spells for a total of 15 years.
Sufficient to effectively comment on any modelling that comes out of Imperial, Warwick LSHTM and Oxford that are used by SAGE.
Oh and ALL of those who I used to work with and am still in touch with think as I do that the models only produce an absolute worst case higher than the upper quartile of whichever statistical distribution you care to base your model on.

So to summarise you have absolutely no qualifications in virology or epidemiology and have no expertise to say scientist have got it wrong. Thanks for clarifying that.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Eased up day 3,gone by day 4....fine now.
Maybe jabbed too high,too low?.....dunno.

That's normal, it's just the vaccine chip doing a software update.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

That's normal, it's just the vaccine chip doing a software update.

Haha,I read summat a few days back about an Italian bloke.
He went for his jab wearing a false arm.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

Condiments, sofas? Your heads gone mate log off for a bit.

Sorry but its not bollocks at all. the whole point of a lot of science it trying to disprove scientific discoveries. those that cannot be disproven become enshrined, its the whole definition of Peer reviewing.

there are still thousands of physicists out there there trying to disprove Einstein's theory's every day as the one that does instantly becomes world renowend.

Nonsense. Scientists are trying to tie Einstein's theory into the scale of quantum mechanics, a unified theory. His theory has been proved countless times.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

No, I'm the mathematician that built a model that said estimated 30-50k cases per day in the third wave (you can go over my history) and was arguing with people like you that the Sage model of 200k+ was completely wrong and over estimated. Guess who was right

Not you. You have changed your username then because you were laughably horrible wrong. Another data compiler who thinks he's an expert on virus'

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Haha,I read summat a few days back about an Italian bloke.
He went for his jab wearing a false arm.

LOL yeah I read that too.

10/10 for effort

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

imagine changing your username because you got something so badly wrong and then come back on to pretend you have a scientific background in a topic you don't have any expertise on whatsoever. I'm sure he could compile some stats on custard usage in Bedford and then tell us he's an expert on Cows.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

Obviously there is no chance of hitting 7 million plus boosters a week from now until the end of the month but hopefully a big uplift to say 5 million would be a great outcome. With a bit of luck everyone 18 and over who wants one should have had theirs by around mid January.

 

[feelymcfeel]

Nonsense. Scientists are trying to tie Einstein's theory into the scale of quantum mechanics, a unified theory. His theory has been proved countless times.

If we're getting into that, you can actually only disprove a theory. Any results that support it are just strengthening it.

/facetiousness

 

[blueinsa]

Agree with your last sentence.

However, you aren‘t doing. You’re questioning every single bit of information without proof.

Im not doing you are right because we are being restricted yet again with more restrictions to come.

Questioning things? Damn right I am. I suggest everyone else should also always question things.

 

[The blue phantom]

Eased up day 3,gone by day 4....fine now.
Maybe jabbed too high,too low?.....dunno.

I had the Moderna Booster at the Etihaad and it was the same, Painfull. Dead arm for 5 Days & couldn't even sleep on that side. Absolutely nothing from my two Vaccine Jabs they were perfect.