Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ayrshire_blue said:
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So pretty much what we thought. It IS milder. The boosters DO have a good if slightly smaller ability to stop serious illness from it. But it is so much more infectious - to a near phenomenal degree - that this counterbalances the good news and will still mean that many many people (including NHS staff) could be off work isolating - and even a smaller perentage of a far bigger number catching it going into hospital could stil be enough to cause problems because of the staffing issues and the season where many other things put people in hospital.

Hence why this is a very difficult decsion to make about what to do to try to slow it down given how hard that is and nigh impossible until after Christmas as so many will be reluctant.
 
Healdplace said:
So pretty much what we thought. It IS milder. The boosters DO have a good if slightly smaller ability to stop serious illness from it. But it s so much more infectious - to a near phenomenal degree - that this counterbalamces the good news and will still mean that many many people (including NHS staff) could be off work isolating - and even a smaller perentage of a far bigger number catching it gimg into hosptal could stil be enough to cause problems because of the staffing issues and the season where many other things put people in hospital.

Hence why this is a very difficult decsion to make about what to do to try to slow it down given how hard that is and nigh impossible until after Christmas.
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A lot depends on high quickly it falls. If the SA data is correct, this will fall off a cliff in the first or second week of January, unless we prolong it in order to ‘slow it down’.
 
So Edinburgh and Imperial saying it’s milder then

crazy to think we’d have been back at stage 2 or even in a circuit breaker if Johnsons position within his party was stronger.
 
Del_Bosque said:
So Edinburgh and Imperial saying it’s milder then

crazy to think we’d have been back at stage 2 or even in a circuit breaker if Johnsons position within his party was stronger.
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just because it’s milder doesn’t mean the NHS is under severe pressure at the moment
 
Healdplace said:
So pretty much what we thought. It IS milder. The boosters DO have a good if slightly smaller ability to stop serious illness from it. But it is so much more infectious - to a near phenomenal degree - that this counterbalances the good news and will still mean that many many people (including NHS staff) could be off work isolating - and even a smaller perentage of a far bigger number catching it going into hospital could stil be enough to cause problems because of the staffing issues and the season where many other things put people in hospital.

Hence why this is a very difficult decsion to make about what to do to try to slow it down given how hard that is and nigh impossible until after Christmas as so many will be reluctant.
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Cancel isolation rules and all catch it.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
A lot depends on high quickly it falls. If the SA data is correct, this will fall off a cliff in the first or second week of January, unless we prolong it in order to ‘slow it down’.
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Yes, hopefully that will be true. Guess we will have to see but there is going to be a point where so many have had it then it will reach some natural tipping point quite fast.

And it is hard to see what variant could turn up which would outdo this one as making people sicker is not an advantage to any virus ahead of being more infective which is pretty much its perfect outcome.
 
Healdplace said:
So pretty much what we thought. It IS milder. The boosters DO have a good if slightly smaller ability to stop serious illness from it. But it is so much more infectious - to a near phenomenal degree - that this counterbalances the good news and will still mean that many many people (including NHS staff) could be off work isolating - and even a smaller perentage of a far bigger number catching it going into hospital could stil be enough to cause problems because of the staffing issues and the season where many other things put people in hospital.

Hence why this is a very difficult decision to make about what to do to try to slow it down given how hard that is and nigh impossible until after Christmas as so many will be reluctant.
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The wife who is a NHS employee is currently isolating due to close contact with a family member who has tested positive. It`s NHS policy that she can not attend work until she gets a PCR test result. She`s now been waiting for 3 days for her test result and has been told not to chase it up until it passes 96 hours. She could be negative, but can`t go to work until she gets her results. The NHS is going to take a pasting, not just due Covid but due to staff shortages because of isolation.
PCR testing needs sorting out, especially in Gtr Manchester. And NHS staff should be prioritised.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
How do you calculate that?
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Roubiax posted a link to the least squares method a few days ago on projecting casess into the future and how to calculate it. Hospitalisations will do the same X+Y days later where X is the time from infection to symptoms and Y is the time from symptoms to hospitalisation. It would appear X has reduced from a median of 4.25 days (2.5-5 IQR) to 2.5 days for Omicron but. I can't find any data on Y the median for which was 7 days (3-10.4 IQR). The shorter this time is the better and a high viral load with rapid initial upper respitory tract replication with omicron should mean it is shorter.
Going back 7 days takes you to around 3000 hospitilisations a day a week after the 30% wave starts to decline but cases aren't doubling at the rate they were and the 20 million delta cases since July give improved. Immunity on the back of double vaccination. Fag packet maths say hospitalisations need to be around 2500 a day then to not cause a major problem. If you assume a high number of hospitalisations that subsequently test +ve positive for Covid we are probably are OK now but we don't have this data, only anecdotal evidence. Also the ongoing effect of Delta muddies the picture.
The NHS and ONS stats people have more accurate data so they will be able to confirm the actual projections by Boxing day if not sooner.
Note: IQR = Inter Quartile Range where 50% of data points sit..
 
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zandvoort blue said:
The wife who is a NHS employee is currently isolating due to close contact with a family member who has tested positive. It`s NHS policy that she can not attend work until she gets a PCR test result. She`s now been waiting for 3 days for her test result and has been told not to chase it up until it passes 96 hours. She could be negative, but can`t go to work until she gets her results. The NHS is going to take a pasting, not just due Covid but due to staff shortages because of isolation.
PCR testing needs sorting out, especially in Gtr Manchester. And NHS staff should be prioritised.
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That's terrible. Surely people working in the NHS must be given priority on all testing. This just sounds like stupidity. To think that people are only infectious for a few days but have to wait 96 hours for a result is ridiculous.
 
Here are the last ten days of London cases and London Patient numbers 5 days later. To see if there is a link

CASES IN LONDON 6988 - 7761 - 9988 - 8537 - 9969 - 11,791 - 12,832 - 19,294 - 23,772 - 26,601 - 25,551

PATIENTS IN HOSPITAL IN LONDON (5 Days after the above)

1253 - 1360 - 1349 - 1372 - 1460 - 1534 - 1573 - 1666 - 1819 - 1904 - 2036


Can anyone make anything out of this?

Cases are up 3 or 4 times. Patients yet to double.
 
The Government will soon find itself caught between public frustration and NHS exasperation. It was only on the 14th that they voted through the tighter measures, and 8 days later the public is already itching for them to be eased. Ten more days will see them clear January 1st, but at this rate it's going to be difficult for them to keep a lid on things.
 
bobbyowenquiff said:
That's terrible. Surely people working in the NHS must be given priority on all testing. This just sounds like stupidity. To think that people are only infectious for a few days but have to wait 96 hours for a result is ridiculous.
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The only thing I can think is that the PCR testing facility is getting swamped by unnecessary testing, people making sure they`re okay for Xmas so that they can visit families, and not because of symptoms or close contact. The average time for getting results in Gtr Manchester is currently between 3 to 5 days.
The testing facility at the Airport even asked for her reason for testing and her occupation.
Common sense says it should be done in house or that NHS staff should get a 24 hour guaranteed turnaround.
And the frustrating thing is she wants to go to work to help the cause.
 
BBC playing the data down. Not the really good news we were hoping for they say. Only 10% reduction. They say. Really?
 
ayrshire_blue said:
They're under severe pressure every winter. It comes with the job but ultimately has to be funded and protected far better without punishing the public.
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That is the solution. If we need more beds and staff then they need to sort it out. With an ageing population anyway, demand for hospital beds will increase over time anyway, pandemic or no pandemic.
 
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