Coronavirus (2021) thread

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BlueAnorak said:
You think UK Epidemiologists will accept that figure as a base line for modelling?
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No. And nor should they. SA are not good at tracking deaths, just look at the variance of registered deaths(90k) vs Excess (280k)

makes it impossible to use accurately for any form of modelling.
 
grunge said:
No. And nor should they. SA are not good at tracking deaths, just look at the variance of registered deaths(90k) vs Excess (280k)

makes it impossible to use accurately for any form of modelling.
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While I can see your reasoning. The difference between Omicron and Delta in SA collected data is clear and that difference should have been applied to our modelling for the median outcome prediction.
Stats may be relatively poorly collected in SA but the chance of the difference between 2 data sets, collected in the same way, being badly wrong is so much less that expert worst case modelling being right.
 
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BlueAnorak said:
I don't think Boris gambled for Delta at all. 20m Delta cases since June, mainly among the vaccinated, has given us a strong base immunity for the winter - Valance was the main driver for this and prior to Omicron arriving this was starting to pay off in spades compared to many European countries from the start of November onwards.
As to Omicron - UK Epidemiologist modellers REFUSING to accept the difference between Delta and Omicron in SA (known for 3 weeks now) as the base line for Omicron virulence is arrogance of the highest order.
Boris waiting to see the actual data before introducing further restrictions is a gamble but not much of one. Especially as throwing the UK economy under the restriction train for another 6 months is probably the bigger gamble as it would be devastating to the UK economy.
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appart from a week ago when Neil Fergusons team released there paper on the differences they found so they could apply it in new models.
 
grunge said:
No. And nor should they. SA are not good at tracking deaths, just look at the variance of registered deaths(90k) vs Excess (280k)

makes it impossible to use accurately for any form of modelling.
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The death reporting was/is the same for delta and omicron so that makes no sense for one.

Also, excess deaths is not wholly about covid and dying from covid, it also includes everything that covid (and a stymied health system from that) creates such a more cancer deaths, hugely increased instances of suicide and other deaths from causes unrelated to the virus itself.

The UK’s excess deaths vs covid registered deaths is also way off.
 
BlueAnorak said:
While I can see your reasoning. The difference between Omicron and Delta in SA collected data is clear and that difference should have been applied to our modelling for the median outcome prediction.
Stats may be relatively poorly collected in SA but they equally apply to Both Omicron and Delta. The chance if it being badly wrong is so much less that expert scaremongering being right.
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they are changing there models tho now they have data to use.
 
SWP's back said:
The death reporting was/is the same for delta and omicron so that makes no sense for one.

Also, excess deaths is not wholly about covid and dying from covid, it also includes everything that covid (and a stymied health system from that) creates such a more cancer deaths, hugely increased instances of suicide and other deaths from causes unrelated to the virus itself.

The UK’s excess deaths vs covid registered deaths is also way off.
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Agreed, but it’s a massive variance in SA,

the scales are really different between UK and SA in terms of excess deaths.

I used to post the excess deaths graph in this thread every week but stopped a while back.
 
grunge said:
Agreed, but it’s a massive variance in SA,

the scales are really different between UK and SA in terms of excess deaths.

I used to post the excess deaths graph in this thread every week but stopped a while back.
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Do you know the UK’s difference between claimed covid and excess deaths at the minute? (I’m asking as I’ve not seen it in months)
 
SWP's back said:
Do you know the UK’s difference between claimed covid and excess deaths at the minute? (I’m asking as I’ve not seen it in months)
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I’ve not checked the data directly but according to this we are at about 145k covid deaths( I guess they used the 28 day numbers) and 146k excess deaths.

www.economist.com

Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries

In many parts of the world, official death tolls undercount the total number of fatalities
www.economist.com www.economist.com

edit. Not sure on these figures.
 
Wales with a new record today for a 48 hour period - 12,378 cases. About double the same 2 days last week. Deaths low though at 3. These records will keep on tumbling but the cases are now much less important than hospital data. Which Wales have not updated since 22 December so these numbers are all the media will report. Frustrating they do not give us the things that really matter as priority.
 
BlueAnorak said:
I don't think Boris gambled for Delta at all. 20m Delta cases since June, mainly among the vaccinated, has given us a strong base immunity for the winter - Valance was the main driver for this and prior to Omicron arriving this was starting to pay off in spades compared to many European countries from the start of November onwards.
As to Omicron - UK Epidemiologist modellers REFUSING to accept the difference between Delta and Omicron in SA (known for 3 weeks now) as the base line for Omicron virulence is arrogance of the highest order.
Boris waiting to see the actual data before introducing further restrictions is a gamble but not much of one. Especially as throwing the UK economy under the restriction train for another 6 months is probably the bigger gamble as it would be devastating to the UK economy.
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I think most peole would accept an explanation along the lines of, “all the leaves have gone from the magic money tree” and at this point we have to prioritise the economy.

People will vote with their feet and people worried about Covid pro lake won’t go partying on NYE. Boris and co can review the situation in the New Year. Hopefully, the gamble will pay off. Delta seems to be the main concern and hopefully Omicron will sideline it, whilst not resulting in too many serious cases in the meantime / weeks ahead.
 
Healdplace said:
Wales with a new record today for a 48 hour period - 12,378 cases. About double the same 2 days last week. Deaths low though at 3. These records will keep on tumbling but the cases are now much less important than hospital data. Which Wales have not updated since 22 December so these numbers are all the media will report. Frustrating they do not give us the things that really matter as priority.
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It will be interesting to see how the halved average time in hospital from Omicron (stated by Oxford Professor Sir John Bell) as opposed to Delta affects the load on the NHS. Looking at the figures as they stand, the main issue will be staff being off sick I think.
 
BlueAnorak said:
It will be interesting to see how the halved average time in hospital from Omicron (stated by Oxford Professor Sir John Bell) as opposed to Delta affects the load on the NHS. Looking at the figures as they stand, the main issue will be staff being off sick I think.
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I agree. That is what I have been emphasising too as even a week ago London had a huge number of staff self isolating. I think the rule was changed to just 7 days because of this risk to the NHS staffing levels in coming weeks. And can see it reduce to 5 as data mounts this is milder than prior strains. The staff to patient ratio is the key so the number going up as it is in several regions now matters in a way more complicated to work out than a direct comparison with last Winter.
 
BlueAnorak said:
It will be interesting to see how the halved average time in hospital from Omicron (stated by Oxford Professor Sir John Bell) as opposed to Delta affects the load on the NHS. Looking at the figures as they stand, the main issue will be staff being off sick I think.
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The main issue is hospitals don't operate nationally and that isn't reflected in the data. All people see is a graph where hospitalisations are flat but that's the national picture. A flat graph nationally can still represent significant changes and problems locally.

Below is the hospitalisations for London where cases related to Omicron are dominant. If this was reflected in some areas then the hospitals would collapse. London is very well equipped to deal with this change, others may not be.

Yeah it's probably caused by the unvaccinated and who knows what but hospitals don't have the luxury of choosing patients.

Untitled-2.jpg

 
I post the hospital data on the data thread and the worry is not just London which remains high after 2 weeks of patients going up from 1360 to 2640 yesterday.

Other regions are coming on stream too, North West had the biggest patient rise yesterday - from 945 to 1226 in ONE day. Midlands is also escalating (from 1345 to 1443 just yesterday).

Every England region (plus the other three nations) are going to see similar rises in coming days and at one point these will all be happening together before any falls begin.

That is going to stretch resources at the same time as New Years Eve parties might be adding to the usual NHS burden.
 
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