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Discussion in 'Bluemoon forum' started by berryblue, 9 Mar 2020.
Look at excess deaths, it's already been reported way over the 'monthly average'.
Yes non covid deaths will soar in the next 12 months.
Pure speculation and fear mongering.
You seem to be arguing slightly different things with me, so I am going to be clear in laying out my position.
- The UK is currently not in a position to be opening up it's economy in the manner it is doing, Garden Centres included. If we'd acted sooner we might be, but we didn't so we are not. Once testing, tracing and tracking is in place, and community infections are down, we might be. Football is part of that. Until those are in place - not predictions that it will be, when it is, and is successfully running, like in Korea and Germany - then any opening of the economy will take us back to square one, damaging the economy in the process.
- The economy isn't in a recession because people should be getting on with things or getting back to work, it's in a recession because that is a very natural reaction to a once in a century global pandemic. You can't have infinite growth forever. We would be better positioned if we hadn't had a decade of austerity, but here we are. For the economy to recover, counter-intuitively, we shouldn't be rushing people back to work.
- I agree, the results of the pandemic will have knock-on efffects in terms of broader health, mental and physical. But shrugging our shoulders and pulling up our sleeves is not the best way to address that.
- I don't think it is possible for us to finish the season, given the above conditions, before July or August. I believe football is a middling priority right now. I think we might be able to play part of the new season behind closed doors, if we get to grips with things in the next 2 months. There would be ways of making things fairer, like possibly seeding teams or whatever, that everyone in the league and beyond will be able to agree to.
There seems to be a lot of that on here.
Yes that's true but it works both ways there is a lot of fear mongering with Covid-19 too.
I like your arguments but have you thought that the second spike maybe a more fundamental wave that hits the northern latitudes in the Winter? I am sure that there are parts of society that just want to ride it out and don't really care about the loss of life. I think you assume that they are controlling and dictating events now but what if it's actually UK science who have sound reasons for wanting to loosen the lockdown? I don't know this, but I have come across some scientists who argue that in the Summer months the UK should cycle social distancing on and off so that more people become immune with the aim of creating a bulwark against a 2nd wave.
We are in the dark as ever, but as ever the only way to shine any light on this is to question.
I think the second spike is due in 2-3 weeks, with the lock down we've just had reinforced, let alone winter, but I'll happily, happily be back here and front up to being wrong if I'm wrong. To your later point, if we are back to herd immunity then I'd like the UK Government to be honest with us about it. I trust the WHO and all the other people who say that aiming for this, with this strain of coronavirus, is tantamount to letting half a million people die, which from a purely economic viewpoint would make the depression we are about to have look like a socially distanced walk in the park.
I'm not like a lot of people here, I'd love football back, I'll be watching the German football this weekend, and I'd happily take Liverpool, who are fair winners, winning the league if we got a punt at Europe and the cup (and more importantly, I'd take Liverpool winning this league and the next 100 if it meant no more deaths and being able to go out and have some beers with my mates over the summer). Just from everything I've read, I don't think we are there yet, and decisions that are being made now will make this more difficult in the future. And I think because of mistakes we made early on, I don't think we will be there till at least August. And for all of the talk of re-starting this season then, taking a hit on lost revenues for 10 games is much more preferable than taking the hit on a whole new season.
But I'm no expert, I hope I'm wrong, but that's where I'm at. But regardless, I just find the framing of economy vs health dangerous, because it's clearly much more complicated than that.
BB, the situation is it’s always been about herd immunity, whether that’s acquired by getting the infection, or via vaccination (some way off). Around 70% population immunity required before no longer a public health issue, we will get an idea once screening modalities improve of population immunity levels and I don’t mean swabs because a negative swan generally means shit. There is medical evidence coming suggesting many have had it without knowing.
Corona is a new virus and highly contagious, and just like flu goes for the elderly and sick in the main.
So the answer by all governments with the lockdown is to ease and squeeze the lockdown to manage the situation so that healthcare is not overwhelmed. Unfortunately and it’s nobody’s fault, people are sadly going to die, just as they do the flu (500,000 worldwide deaths from flu annually).
Governments around the world are in an unenviable position of trying to navigate through a rock and a hard place, to try and save lives but also ensure we can afford to live, get healthcare, bins emptied, keep your job, pay for your city season card.
Hopefully vaccine soon or strong evidence that most have had it without knowing.
Re-football getting back, I can’t say I’ve missed it as the constant negativity was ruining my enjoyment.
Any way keep safe and hopefully we’ll all come out the other side of this
It does work both ways, but the raw data from deaths of COVID actually exists. Saying that 'millions will die' because of the economy - is pure conjecture.