COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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An interesting stat: More people died from this yesterday than have died from in in China in total.

Wow. Every single day from now on, that will continue to be the case and given the world is nowhere near the peak, I imagine it will be the case for months.

Interesting (and deeply saddening) but so what? Well if it only carries on like this for a couple of months, that would the death count outside of China is more than 60x that of China itself. Probably much more, depending on how high the world daily death rate gets.

And yet China accounts for 1/6th of the world's population. It only goes to show how the world has dropped the ball on this. A country with 1/6th of the world population is going to end up with less than 1/60th of the deaths. My guess is a much smaller fraction indeed - maybe 1/600th.

China showed us how best to respond with an immediate lockdown and severe travel restrictions in their own country. But we - not just here in the UK but pretty much everywhere else - waited too long and allowed people to freely move around whilst the virus was silently permeating the population. And we will get to see the results of that play out every day for the next few months.

I don't want to jump on this as it's been pointed out already and don't want it to feel like an ambush, your point would be correct IF China have told the truth, however everything is pointing in the direction that they haven't and still aren't, much like Iran and Russia I would imagine, both of which don't seem to mind getting rid of mass amounts of bodies when it suits them!
 
My mother 84 in law went shopping the last friday. She had already been told to isolate before the official ban. But old people being old people eh.
6 days later she is showing all the symptoms. We called 111 yesterday, as she starting to go down hill.
Their response was to monitor her, and only call back if she is struggling to breath.
So we don't know if she has it or something else. Either way she is not on the official figures.
Same happened to me so I'm not in the figures.
My thoughts and prayers for your family. It must be very worrying.
 
It’s ignored as the U.K. press covered the fifteen minute antibody test being available (3.5m of them) for front line staff within days.

Not sure what saving ten minutes makes and why you keep repeating yourself?
Virus test mate, not the antibody one.
 
Easier said than done that pal. Have you any idea how much of what you buy comes from China? Apart from what you eat, there is barely a thing that may not have been made there and it's often impossible to tell at the time of purchase, and sometimes even afterwards.
Exactly.... Even if something is assembled here or elsewhere the parts will have been manufactured in China
 
Judging by Cheltenham, Liverpool and the nationwide piss up a week last Friday I'd say it won't make too much difference.

People packing out the pubs last friday was the single most stupid thing thats happened throughout all this. My 20 year old nephew went to my local, bollocking wasnt the word!

It was party night, people hugging etc.
A dropped bollock by the government who underestimated the stupidity of the british public
 
What if we went into immediate lockdown as you say we should have.
Yes the spread of the disease would have been less.
Yes we would have had less deaths.
Intensive care beds lying empty.

Then slowly but surely, people would get restless and start breaking the lockdown. Mainly because they would have seen very few deaths and think this isn't that serious.
Before long, the death figures would start rising again.
Pleas to remain inside would be ignored. The reason for this is persons are smart but people are thick.
The government knows this.

We already have pubs doing lock ins.
People "exercising" in public parks. I don't think i've seen as many cyclists in my life.
Dog walkers stopping to have chats with people.
People have been BBQing on the moors in large groups.
Old people deciding that it is ok to go outside to shop/visit friends.
All this in less than one week of a lock down.

Now we have a situation with no controls. So the army is deployed onto the streets.
Like all the random riots we have had over the years. People would see the army as the enemy.
People would resist calls for isolation. Chaos would soon follow.
The virus takes over again and now there is nothing to stop or limit it.
The figures we have now would look great in comparison.

We have no way of stopping this. Only trying to slow it or manage it.
They have said from the start that they know they have "one" shot at total isolation/lockdown.
Mistakes have been and will be made. But i think we are doing ok.
Do not agree, and in fact the government does not now agree either.

Reflect on this: if we locked everyone in the UK up for 2 weeks, the virus would be gone, eliminated, no more. Everyone infected would be either recovered or dead. Either way, no more infections. The whole of the UK would be "clean".

Now of course we cannot do this, so we get "leakage". Some people continue to travel around and infect other people. And many of us have to go out and buy food and get infected by not being careful enough, not washing their hands enough or by just pure bad luck. And we have essential workers who also get infected, through no fault of their own.

So in reality it takes lo get than 2 weeks to get the infection rates right down and close to zero.
And of course the longer you took to start clamping down, the longer it takes to get things under control, More people are infected. The peak is bigger and it takes longer to suppress.

How long it takes depends on how careful we are and how draconian the measures are. People ignoring advice, weak lock down rules, light punishments and it will take longer, more people die, but we will still get there.

Once the numbers are really low, we go into phase 2 - the phase we should have been in, in the first place. That is test the shit out of everything that moves phase. Any suspected cases at all, lock them down immediately and trace all their contacts and lock them down as wel. For 2 weeks. And test/quarantine anyone re-emterjng the UK.

But the rest of the country can gradually go back to work, more or less as normal, but with heightened awareness and hopefully improved hygiene routines.

This works. This is what South Korea has been doing for weeks and it's seen to work. They have the same population as us. They had 5 deaths yesterday. We had 260.

Can you still buy Samsung phones, made in South Korea? Yes you can. They have their lives relatively back to normal and the virus under control.
 
Immediate Chinese lock down? Only if you're talking about locking down whistle blowers.
They waited longer than Boris did to lock their people down - and then did it in the most draconian way possible.
The first cases were known at the end of November. They locked down on January 23. That's two months of exponential spread in the crowded City of Wuhan.
Not true mate.
 
No mate.

There is a an antibody test, but this is a direct test for the virus. This is why I am indeed repeating myself because it doesn't seem to have registered with the media. if they work, and you must imagine they do if FDA approved, then that's very significant

Snippet below from a UK euivalent. US versions supposed to be quicker

http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-03-18-oxford-scientists-develop-rapid-testing-technology-covid-19

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