COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Blue and still suffering said:
If you watch Dr John Campbell's video from today he talks about a German study which is showing that difference between case numbers and deaths is growing wider and that the death rates of the groups most at risk has fallen considerably over the past couple of months despite the increased number of cases. He believes this is good news, I suppose that we shall see if this study bears out over here in about three weeks.
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But as cases are rising here in care homes at an alarming rate the fear is we may face a different outcome to Germany

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: Care homes in England warned of rise in infections

Cases are mainly among staff but risk spreading to residents, a government letter says.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
 
bluethrunthru said:
Yeah but the story you tell about the high school sending kids home - the press had an hysterical reaction to getting kids back in school - when what you describe as happening now was suggested as the likely outcome the press responded with an attack on "militant" unions and lazy cunts who just want to stay at home ( although many were working at home ) - so you somehow get people back in offices if you bear in mind that school experience what do you think will be the outcome?

I was working in a 10 floor office block in Gateshead. Max 2 to a lift on return will take ages to get people to the right floor. They all share the same lift. One person tests positive. How many go home for 14 days? Them? Their office? Their floor including offices they don't work in but share lift and toilet facilities? Or all 10 floors on the same basis?
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Thankfully, the decision as to who gets sent home from school rests with the public authorities, not the schools - otherwise we'd be damned if we did / didn't etc. I've taught in 3 different "bubbles" this week - not out of choice, but of necessity. We've been told to try and maintain 2 metre distance from kids - utterly impossible, especially with the younger ones. We've put in place a huge amount of measures in the hope of mitigation but we know the children only spend 19% of the week with us and it could be all undone outside the school gates. And we're not helped by the testing - no home kits available for much of last week.
Currently it looks like whole classes are being sent home if a pupil tests positive (or more of it's a teacher and the teacher has crossed "bubbles) and maybe we'll see that reduce to just those pupils in immediate contact (ie, sat next to). Just don't think we can sustain current systems if we want to get the schools up and running. Or, we send home whole classes and accept the cost of that - educationally and on wider society.
 
johnnytapia said:
Thankfully, the decision as to who gets sent home from school rests with the public authorities, not the schools - otherwise we'd be damned if we did / didn't etc. I've taught in 3 different "bubbles" this week - not out of choice, but of necessity. We've been told to try and maintain 2 metre distance from kids - utterly impossible, especially with the younger ones. We've put in place a huge amount of measures in the hope of mitigation but we know the children only spend 19% of the week with us and it could be all undone outside the school gates. And we're not helped by the testing - no home kits available for much of last week.
Currently it looks like whole classes are being sent home if a pupil tests positive (or more of it's a teacher and the teacher has crossed "bubbles) and maybe we'll see that reduce to just those pupils in immediate contact (ie, sat next to). Just don't think we can sustain current systems if we want to get the schools up and running. Or, we send home whole classes and accept the cost of that - educationally and on wider society.
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I think sending the whole class home won’t work: like you say within a month no one will be in. Can’t the whole class go for a test? And just have a couple of days off?
 
johnnytapia said:
Thankfully, the decision as to who gets sent home from school rests with the public authorities, not the schools - otherwise we'd be damned if we did / didn't etc. I've taught in 3 different "bubbles" this week - not out of choice, but of necessity. We've been told to try and maintain 2 metre distance from kids - utterly impossible, especially with the younger ones. We've put in place a huge amount of measures in the hope of mitigation but we know the children only spend 19% of the week with us and it could be all undone outside the school gates. And we're not helped by the testing - no home kits available for much of last week.
Currently it looks like whole classes are being sent home if a pupil tests positive (or more of it's a teacher and the teacher has crossed "bubbles) and maybe we'll see that reduce to just those pupils in immediate contact (ie, sat next to). Just don't think we can sustain current systems if we want to get the schools up and running. Or, we send home whole classes and accept the cost of that - educationally and on wider society.
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I don’t really know if going out is ok or not, my better half lives in Oldham which is red area, think Wilmslow is green could be wrong, went to the pub for lunch last week only person there, so that’s socially distancing
 
johnnytapia said:
Thankfully, the decision as to who gets sent home from school rests with the public authorities, not the schools - otherwise we'd be damned if we did / didn't etc. I've taught in 3 different "bubbles" this week - not out of choice, but of necessity. We've been told to try and maintain 2 metre distance from kids - utterly impossible, especially with the younger ones. We've put in place a huge amount of measures in the hope of mitigation but we know the children only spend 19% of the week with us and it could be all undone outside the school gates. And we're not helped by the testing - no home kits available for much of last week.
Currently it looks like whole classes are being sent home if a pupil tests positive (or more of it's a teacher and the teacher has crossed "bubbles) and maybe we'll see that reduce to just those pupils in immediate contact (ie, sat next to). Just don't think we can sustain current systems if we want to get the schools up and running. Or, we send home whole classes and accept the cost of that - educationally and on wider society.
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The answer is obvious - blame militant unions and lazy teachers
 
bluethrunthru said:
But as cases are rising here in care homes at an alarming rate the fear is we may face a different outcome to Germany
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Residents greatest risk of infection is from staff. Other than regular staff testing, what else can be done? After all it's the colossal amount of nationwide staff testing which is picking up the care home positive tests. Which is surely has to be seen as an effective approach at this juncture, don't you think?
 
worsleyweb said:
I think sending the whole class home won’t work: like you say within a month no one will be in. Can’t the whole class go for a test? And just have a couple of days off?
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One school sent an entire class for tests and Hancock had a go at them!

As @johnnytapia says, damned if we do, damned if we don't.


EDIT: We've got 2 staff Self-ioslating today, still unable to get tests this side of Watford gap. Also one one kid off due to a parent's positive test, and at least another 3 off awaiting test results.
 
Healdplace said:
Anyone understand the science in this paper enough to comment.

Someone says it infers that Covid will become endemic as in effect just a version of a cold and not much more dangerous.

Looks improbable but not impossible.

I know the T cell discussion suggests there is a path toward relative immunity here but basically Covid becomes a bad cold?

Do they have any real evidence here?


t.co

COVID-19 and the Path to Immunity

This Viewpoint reviews what is known about acute and long-term B-cell, antibody, and T-cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection and explains how each are implicated in vaccine candidates likely to be effective and durably protective again COVID-19.
t.co t.co
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I am not an expert in immunology but here goes.

Basically the paper is summarising what is known about the adaptive immune response to SARS CoV2 so far and speculating what this implies for the future of the disease in man as a result of this knowledge the main thrust of the speculation is about the implications for vaccine development rather than the overall future clinical course.
Without scanning all the references etc I would imagine if it is published in JAMA the reporting of what is known so far is very accurate.
Speculation about the implications of this knowledge is necessarily uncertain, I don't think they are saying it will become a bad cold but they are saying that this is real possibility based on what we know. The basic problem is that we have not seen many other emerging viruses like this to compare so they are essentially using logic but in complex systems much is inevitably unknown.

They clearly think vaccination is the most likely way forward and are relatively optimistic about the future of a vaccine because it appears that the immune response is likely to both decrease the severity of any illness following infecion and possibly prevent it all together in many people. It also appears unlikely that the immune response generated by vaccination is likely to enhance the disease, an early concern.

All this understanding is based on less than 10 months of observation and extrapolation of this into the future course of the disease is necessarily uncertain.
 
Blue and still suffering said:


Not that tech savvy so hope this works
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He has done a few videos recently that could all be large contributing factors here.

1) Summer - Vitamin D specifically. recent studies show that Vitamin D really is helping reduce the severity of it if you get it.
2) Masks - They help stop you spreading it if you have it and dont know it, helping reduce viral load in others.
3) Masks - Now showing that while they wont stop you from getting it, they do help trap larger droplets and help give lower viral load in you if you do get it.

with those and social distancing helping reduce the viral load I think what we are seeing is tons of very mild cases. Long may it continue!
 
grunge said:
He has done a few videos recently that could all be large contributing factors here.

1) Summer - Vitamin D specifically. recent studies show that Vitamin D really is helping reduce the severity of it if you get it.
2) Masks - They help stop you spreading it if you have it and dont know it, helping reduce viral load in others.
3) Masks - Now showing that while they wont stop you from getting it, they do help trap larger droplets and help give lower viral load in you if you do get it.

with those and social distancing helping reduce the viral load I think what we are seeing is tons of very mild cases. Long may it continue!
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Indeed. From what I see posted by anti maskers (often anti vaxxers too) there's always a reference to masks not being effective due to the size of the particles. Problem with the way this was broadcast early in the pandemic (and mask wearing is not a cultural thing of here so we don't really understand the reasons (or at least didn't).

"yes, but but it's ten minutes in the supermarket for now....but that will soon extend to 24/7"...etc etc.

Interesting discussion on another platform about mask wearing and Confucianism (rather than Communism) in China and south east Asia - essentially a collective of help rather than an individual approach.
 
With all this talk of increasing ‘cases’ it’s useful to discuss what, in reality, a case actually is compared with the figures being rolled out on a daily basis. This article is fairly long but worth a read and may be quite reassuring depending on your point of view

drmalcolmkendrick.org

COVID – why terminology really, really matters

4th September 2020 COVID – why terminology really, really matters [And the consequences of getting it horribly wrong] When is a case not a case? Since the start of the COVID pandemic I have watched…
drmalcolmkendrick.org
 
davealvers said:
With all this talk of increasing ‘cases’ it’s useful to discuss what, in reality, a case actually is compared with the figures being rolled out on a daily basis. This article is fairly long but worth a read and may be quite reassuring depending on your point of view

drmalcolmkendrick.org

COVID – why terminology really, really matters

4th September 2020 COVID – why terminology really, really matters [And the consequences of getting it horribly wrong] When is a case not a case? Since the start of the COVID pandemic I have watched…
drmalcolmkendrick.org
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The trouble is he cherry picks his data, looks at old and inaccurate data and appears to be trying to paint a political picture rather than have a rational medical understanding.
 
Scotland data up first:

70 cases - at 2.7%. This data is not yet complete and true for all over the UK today we are told. The data will be in effect meaningless and too low. That % from such a lowish number shows a huge number of test results are missing

Nicola Sturgeon seems deeply concerned over the problems with getting testing results and a big delay over turnaround of results.

She has insisted the UK government tell her urgently what is going on as this is a UK wide issue not just Scotland.

Someone has to get a grip of this mess when testing is now so vital. It is becoming a scandal.
 
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