COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Wales data:

0 deaths. But 199 cases. That is the highest I can recall here. And at 2.0% of tests.

Last week it was 0 deaths and 165 cases at 1.75% of tests.

The rising % in these cases is more significant than the raw numbers as it is what indicates a likely upping of the R number and increased transmission from person to person that the test numbers alone really do not.
 
Healdplace said:
The figures over the past few days I post on here show it has been smashing records a lot this week.

Glad to see the media have also started to investigate the Tameside problems the figures have been flagging up for some days now.

I know most of you likely do not follow my data heavy posts and that's OK, I know they are formidable and intimidating. But they do often reveal what is happening a few days ahead of other measures and forewarning to act is vital in a pandemic.

So I am just relieved to see that these things are being picked up by the media a little later and just hope there are government number crunchers warning the people that matter of trends before they become obvious enough to reach the papers. Then they can act promptly. I am sure there have to be.
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Ric said:
Many of us greatly appreciate your efforts mate. Keep up the good work.
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I second this sentiment.
 
N Ireland data not good either:

2 deaths (though these may not be quickly verified by the UK system there can be a lag here)

129 cases at 1.5% of tests.

And the rolling weekly total has shot up to 641. Of those 641 there are14% over 60.

There are also 21 in hospital and 2 in icu ventilator beds. The hospital numbers are two down on yesterday. Possibly the 2 deaths.

But week by week that compares with 0 deaths, 49 cases at 0.65% of tests, 16 in hospital and 2 icu ventilator beds. And a rolling 7 day case average last Wednesday of 607.
 
England hospital deaths are down on last week by 1 but we are starting to see a few hints of larger numbers over the past few days. The uptick so far is not significant but there are definitely warning signs about rising death numbers now.

11 deaths in total with 3 from the NW. Last week it was 12 with 7 from the NW. So that is a bit of positive news.
 
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England hospital death data in more detail:

15 September adds 3. First day numbers have been mostly 0s and 1s for a couple of months now.

14 September adds 4 = 4 after two days.

13 September adds 3 = 11 after three days. This is the highest third day total since 23 July and it has not been higher than 11 since the 15 July.

Indeed no day back as far as 2 August has more than 11 even after weeks of add ons. So it is a notable rise to see that many on a day after just 3 days. May just be a bad day/blip. And not an ongoing trend. Let us hope so.

12 Sep adds 0 = 5 after four days.

The other 1 death was on 11 Sep and its five day total is therefore 6. But the five day single figure run - now three days since the 10 on 8 Sep - will end in the next 48 hours at 4 days maximum given the 11 at three days already.

The last run of single figure 5 day deaths up to 7 Sep lasted 28 days.
 
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So the UK hospital deaths is 14 (or 12 depending on how long it takes to add the N Ireland ones).

Last Wednesday it was 12 and became 8 later in all settings.
 
Healdplace said:
Wales data:

0 deaths. But 199 cases. That is the highest I can recall here. And at 2.0% of tests.

Last week it was 0 deaths and 165 cases at 1.75% of tests.

The rising % in these cases is more significant than the raw numbers as it is what indicates a likely upping of the R number and increased transmission from person to person that the test numbers alone really do not.
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Another whole county just been put into lockdown today in South Wales
 
Case numbers for the three nations total 595 - which I think is a new high without England over past few months.

Last week it was 373 and England later added 2286 to total 2659.
 
Uncle Wally One Ball said:
Another whole county just been put into lockdown today in South Wales
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Sadly this looks like only being more common as it took Leicester in lockdown weeks to get things under control and they still run higher than what might be considered normal there - but by less than they once did at least.

And as you see from Greater Manchester the restrictions have as yet had minimal impact bringing numbers down much - in some ways the reverse - and with the way Wigan and Stockport are well up on where they were for the first few weeks of the tightening (and have both risen markedly since being released - whereas Trafford (still on restrictions) is now well below both of them as best in GM - you do struggle to see what is working and what is not with these attempts to wrest back control.

It is hard to judge as more tests will mean finding more cases obviously so all you can really do is track against themselves and see how places are doing v tests carried out.

But the biggest problem is patchwork easing/tightening in GM is not going to work that well as urban areas do not have border posts and people move about all day every day.
 
Andy Burnham reports today that only 54% of the national track and trace checks found contacts of Greater Manchester cases in past week and he wants to mobilise police and fire officer safety staff locally to improve that as we have only a few weeks to turn this around before 'we go into the really tough time that lies ahead'.

Testing and tracing should be 100% devolved as obviously locals know best how to do this job not someone in London issuing instructions on line or by phone.

So why isn't it?
 
The 11 England hospital deaths were all aged between 69 and 98 and they all had previously known underlying health problems.
 
Healdplace said:
Andy Burnham reports today that only 54% of the national track and trace checks found contacts of Greater Manchester cases in past week and he wants to mobilise police and fire officer safety staff locally to improve that as we have only a few weeks to turn this around before 'we go into the really tough time that lies ahead'.

Testing and tracing should be 100% devolved as obviously locals know best how to do this job not someone in London issuing instructions on line or by phone.

So why isn't it?
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It can only be because the government is terrified of somebody doing it better than they can.
 
Age ranges of new infections in Scotland today

Over 65s - 20 (9 of whom are over 75)
Under 20s - 38 (including four children aged 0-4)
All the rest in the 20-65 age group.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Age ranges of new infections in Scotland today

Over 65s - 20 (9 of whom are over 75)
Under 20s - 38 (including four children aged 0-4)
All the rest in the 20-65 age group.
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That's still OK and sub 8%. Thanks. It is up a bit on two weeks ago (when it was about 4/5%) but not rising much even with big numbers like today.

Though even small rises may result in things like the modest upping of ventilator bed nimbers we have seen in past few days so we need to keep watching indicators such as this.
 
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Worrying numbers again today:

All settings deaths 20 (up from 8 last week) and starting to see these kind of numbers now more than we have for weeks. Suggesting out of hospital Covid deaths have started increasing.

And cases a new record high of 3991 unfortunately.
 
Anyone of a nervous disposition look away now or take a pill.

The North West has literally gone into massive overload to a degree I never expected so fast.

One third of all UK cases here!

London actually DOWN from 278 to 243

Midlands up from 337 to 428.

Yorkshire up quite a bit from 387 to 511.

But - North West up by over 50% in one day - from 809 to 1290.

That is more than most countries in Europe.

GM is going to be terrifying.
 
GM total today a new record of 516 - previous high was 428. Obviously high and bad bad days all over the place. Only two boroughs had 'lows' in 20s. Two had triple figures!

However, if the GM numbers had risen in proportion with the NW numbers day to day it would have been around 600.

So oddly not as catastrophic as it might be. And 516 from 1290 NW cases and nearly 4000 nationally is possibly the lowest % in the recent past.

And what this means - big picture - is - whilst a large metro area like London is going down and after being ahead of the NW one day a month or so ago had ONE SIXTH of the cases the NW did today.

Your guess as to why? More testing? More herd immunity in London?

But at the same time clearly this is no longer a NW epidemic driven by a few towns in isolation - it has become a North West pandemic over a much broader area.

Rossendale - that tiny borough between Blackburn and Oldham/Rochdale with 32 cases went up a staggering 45 as a result. That is way beyond normal and Bolton style levels of increase.
 
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