COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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England hospital deaths 54 versus 43 last Wednesday. 22 in the NW versus 16 last Wednesday.

6 Oct adds 9 = 9 after one day

5 Oct adds 17 = 24 after two days

4 Oct adds 13 = 31 after three days

3 Oct adds 5 = 34 after four days

2 Oct adds 5 = 41 after five days (first five day total in the 40s since 24 June).

The two days before it had add ons and so also both now also sit at 41.
 
In Manchester the ICU numbers went down by 1 over the week (Source: Andy Burnham, MEN), despite hundreds of students getting infected.

That's very good news. What more can you do though? There's zero appetite amongst young generation to put lives on hold but the old live in fear. Both outlooks are understandable. Can the populations be kept separate? So far in Manchester we seem to be coping. This is the early days though in wave 2.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I agree.

What we are seeing is a train wreck in slow motion. It is clearly spreading like wildfire amongst the young and careless. And whilst that will not in itself result in a huge increase in deaths - due to the very low levels of fatalities in a largely young and healthy demographic - this increased level of infection across society is inevitably going to seep through into the vulnerable demographic because they won't be able to isolate themselves from care-workers, family members doing the shopping for them, the paper boy, the window cleaner they pay every 6 weeks etc. All of whom are going to be infected in much larger numbers.

So we are going to see a big spike in deaths again in the over 60's, but it will take a few weeks for this to percolate through. For them to get infected, get ill, go into hospital, go into ICU and then die. It's probably 4 to 6 weeks from now that the idiotic behaviour of far too many people is going to be truly and horribly realised. There was a man, his wife and 3 kids swanning around Morrisons on Monday night for example, and none of them wearing a face mask. How the fuck is that allowed to happen.
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The over 60s are mostly retired I would imagine and don't need to be going out to work ever day. They are in a position where they can take the necessary precautions to protect themselves. Before anyone says it's not fair to ask the over 60s to stay in and isolate, that's pretty much what's happening anyway so why make everyone else also lockdown prolonging the inevitable. Those that don't want to take the necessary precautions, well that's their decision everyone knows the risks.
 
England hospital deaths at 5 days totalled up over past 4 weeks we have the data.

First number is number as reported that week. Number in brackets adds on the deaths tacked on in the weeks since.

The average deaths per day in that week also shown.

Wk 5 - 11 Sep deaths 51 (avg 7.3 per day) (total now 56)

Wk 12 - 18 Sep deaths 95 (avg 13.7 per day) (total now 102)

Wk 19- 25 Sep deaths 142 (avg 20,3 per day) (total now 151)

Wk 26 Sep - 2 Oct deaths 248 (avg 35.7 per day) (total now 254)
 
i think people are also forgetting, when talking about locking down the elderly, that there is a decent proportion of old people (and by old let's say over 70 for arguments sake, though that's not that old) who dont want to be locked down. My local is a proper oldies lunchtime and early evening place, they love it, and many have said they wouldnt want to change etc. There is an attitude that they want to enjoy their remaining years, see their grandchildren while they can in what seems to be an uncertain future. many are giving 2 fingers to being scared and accept the risk.

this is just what i hear ones near me say, but i can envisage this attitude repeating up and down the UK.
 
shemnel said:
i think people are also forgetting, when talking about locking down the elderly, that there is a decent proportion of old people (and by old let's say over 70 for arguments sake, though that's not that old) who dont want to be locked down. My local is a proper oldies lunchtime and early evening place, they love it, and many have said they wouldnt want to change etc. There is an attitude that they want to enjoy their remaining years, see their grandchildren while they can in what seems to be an uncertain future. many are giving 2 fingers to being scared and accept the risk.

this is just what i hear ones near me say, but i can envisage this attitude repeating up and down the UK.
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Some only see other people for that hour in the boozer in the afternoon
 
shemnel said:
i think people are also forgetting, when talking about locking down the elderly, that there is a decent proportion of old people (and by old let's say over 70 for arguments sake, though that's not that old) who dont want to be locked down. My local is a proper oldies lunchtime and early evening place, they love it, and many have said they wouldnt want to change etc. There is an attitude that they want to enjoy their remaining years, see their grandchildren while they can in what seems to be an uncertain future. many are giving 2 fingers to being scared and accept the risk.

this is just what i hear ones near me say, but i can envisage this attitude repeating up and down the UK.
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this is absolutely true in my experience aswell - so many elders have a attitude of 'i've had my time, if anything happens to me then so be it' or 'no one can tell me i can't hug my grandkids'

Yet, let's all blame the Uni Students
 
purplenose said:
In fairness Kaz I think there have been some noises about having made a start on the most vulnerable by the end of the year I doubt even the only slightly thick would think we could jab the population by end of December. How realistic that is remains to be seen of course.
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it is going to front line workers and the vulnerable first , when people say we will have a vaccine by the end of the year i get the impression they think everyone will get it then, problem solved , the experts have always said a year from feb/ march, if we get one and i think that is the case
 
kaz7 said:
it is going to front line workers and the vulnerable first , when people say we will have a vaccine by the end of the year i get the impression they think everyone will get it then, problem solved , the experts have always said a year from feb/ march, if we get one and i think that is the case
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You’ll be bottom of the list for your hatred of scousers:)
 
shemnel said:
i think people are also forgetting, when talking about locking down the elderly, that there is a decent proportion of old people (and by old let's say over 70 for arguments sake, though that's not that old) who dont want to be locked down. My local is a proper oldies lunchtime and early evening place, they love it, and many have said they wouldnt want to change etc. There is an attitude that they want to enjoy their remaining years, see their grandchildren while they can in what seems to be an uncertain future. many are giving 2 fingers to being scared and accept the risk.

this is just what i hear ones near me say, but i can envisage this attitude repeating up and down the UK.
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My extremely fit 89 year old father in law has lost all the things that made life worth living. His life was woodwork at college Monday, over 60s keep fit Tuesday, volunteer at National Trust Weds, walking group Friday, church Sunday. As well as seeing his 7 grandchildren and waking to the pub for a pint some evening. Living in an area of local restrictions, most of these are gone or so restricted they’re not worth bothering. He will lose the will to live.
 
Last week there were 197 deaths in England hospitals - 67 of them were in NW hospitals

This week there were 274 deaths in England hospitals - 106 of them were in NW hospitals
 
blueinsa said:
An ever growing number of scientists now saying its time those at low risk of death to the virus should be allowed to live as normal whilst protecting those at higher risk.

Herd immunity.

I have to say i completely agree.
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From that article

"This is wishful thinking. It is not possible to fully identify vulnerable individuals, and it is not possible to fully isolate them.

"Furthermore, we know that immunity to coronaviruses wanes over time, and re-infection is possible - so lasting protection of vulnerable individuals by establishing 'herd immunity' is very unlikely to be achieved in the absence of a vaccine.

news.sky.com

Coronavirus: Top scientists call for herd immunity approach - as government's 'soft touch' criticised

Other scientists are disputing the calls, claiming herd immunity is "very unlikely" before a COVID-19 vaccine is found.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

If you lock away everyone with health problems the streets would be half empty , i find it funny nobody gives a fuck about the mental health of the vulnerable and the old who were shielding for five months and now are expected to go back in but the young are more important to let out , it is wrong
 
Nicola Sturgeon - steep rise in people over 65 now testing positive in Scotland and translating into rising numers in hospital and on ventilators. Increase of 60% mentioned.
 
artfuldodger said:
My extremely fit 89 year old father in law has lost all the things that made life worth living. His life was woodwork at college Monday, over 60s keep fit Tuesday, volunteer at National Trust Weds, walking group Friday, church Sunday. As well as seeing his 7 grandchildren and waking to the pub for a pint some evening. Living in an area of local restrictions, most of these are gone or so restricted they’re not worth bothering. He will lose the will to live.
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Heartbreaking that
 
Nicola Sturgeon:

Pubs bars and cafes can only open indoors to 6 pm with no alcohol and strict restrictions on numbers.

From Friday nationwide. For two weeks approx

In most infected areas (central belt) full closure of these apart from takeaways.
 
True_Blue69 said:
The over 60s are mostly retired I would imagine and don't need to be going out to work ever day. They are in a position where they can take the necessary precautions to protect themselves. Before anyone says it's not fair to ask the over 60s to stay in and isolate, that's pretty much what's happening anyway so why make everyone else also lockdown prolonging the inevitable. Those that don't want to take the necessary precautions, well that's their decision everyone knows the risks.
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That only works if the people the over 60's have to interact with, are largely uninfected. If we have endemic infection in the other demographics, it will NECESSARILY spill over into the vulnerable groups.

EDIT: And it isn't "prolonging the inevitable". We simply need to keep things adequately supressed until a vaccine or efficacious treatments are available, and not let it rip whilst we have none.
 
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