COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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608 is terrible , i know it is tuesday but still

Testing is so random and it is not tests actually completed , i dont put much store in those numbers
 
Kaz its only a rise of 10 on last Tuesdays 598. It is always high on Tuesday due to the non registration of deaths over the weekend.

Under a 2% rise week to week is almost a stall,

Nobody can or would minimise the numbers but it is a small enough rise that along with this crazy fall in cases has to be good news, surely?

The 11K cases is the real big news today. If real that will translate into 50% fewer deaths 2 or 3 weeks from now as these 608 stem from double the cases we have had in the past couple of days.

I do stress if real though.

Low tests may be the reason but low tests might also mean less people need them.
 
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kaz7 said:
I think about the number of deaths as people and not numbers , peoples loved ones, the numbers are shocking to me , not far off peak
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Of course you do as we all do. I suspect we all know someone who has been ill or died from it by now.

Its hard to detach the person from the number but sometimes it is necessary to stay in control of the toll this horrible disease takes on us mentally.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Surely as the R number falls, there will be less virus about and you will get less people going for tests?
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Yes, I agree that is a possible explanation as I said in my other post on the numbers.

I just wonder as the testing numbers have lately fluctuated so oddly from 200K to 350 K to 180 K - up and down such a lot day to day. I have mentioned it a few times in here as it was so strange.

And with our testing you do tend to think cock up rather than success as the most likely option.

And just hope you are wrong.
 
Healdplace said:
Yes, I agree that is a possible explanation as I said in my other post on the numbers.

I just wonder as the testing numbers have lately fluctuated so oddly from 200K to 350 K to 180 K - up and down such a lot day to day. I have mentioned it a few times in here as it was so strange.

And with our testing you do tend to think cock up rather than success as the most likely option.

And just hope you are wrong.
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Other countries have had similar big falls during their lockdowns so hopefully it is just a sign that the restrictions are working.
 
England hospital data:

Patients up 13, 445 to 13, 767 - last week was 13, 468 - so under 300 up in the week.

Ventilators up 1259 to 1299 - last week was 1198.
 
Healdplace said:
Kaz its only a rise of 10 on last Tuesdays 598. It is always high on Tuesday due to the non registration of deaths over the weekend.

Under a 2% rise week to week is almost a stall,

Nobody can or would minimise the numbers but it is a small enough rise that along with this crazy fall in cases has to be good news, surely?

The 11K cases is the real big news today. If real that will translate into 50% fewer deaths 2 or 3 weeks from now as these 608 stem from double the cases we have had in the past couple of days.

I do stress if real though.

Low tests may be the reason but low tests might also mean less people need them.
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We’ve seen these steep falls from very high second wave peaks around europe too though .While I wouldn’t start to try to explain them, there is something going on with this second wave
 
Regional England hospital data shows what we know. The pandemic is moving south.

London patients up 1469 - 1534 (was 1349) Vent 248 - 252 (was 209)

Other southern areas rising in patient numbers too. The South West for instance has seen ventilators rise from 51 to 72 in the past 7 days. Biggest rise in the UK week to week.

MIdlands patients up 3121 - 3150 (was 2995). Vent 303 - 312 (was 271) - has by far the most very ill patients here now and sadly the highest daily deaths.

NE/Yorks up 3245 - 3302 (was 3400) Vent 240 - 244 (was 236) - starting to stabilise and fall here too I think.

And the North West:

Patients up 2711 to 2729 - small rise and below the first wave peak passed for a few days 2 weeks ago but have been below since. Down from3059 in hospital 7 days ago. Clear fall.

Ventilators up 233 to 234 - was 270 a week ago - so big fall week to week. And three other regions still have more than the NW when 2 weeks ago nobody did.

The hospital data for the NW matches the case number falls and low tests here so they back each other up.
 
Not such a good day for the NW today. Back up to the most cases in the UK.

However, only as the other regions have fallen more as the NW has another small fall too.

Though this shift from 4th to 1st increases my suspicions about the testing today. As it it is across the board and not reflecting areas that have seemed to be more impacted than others in recent days.


London 1409 - big drop from 2023

Midlands 1244 - big drop from 2020

North East 598 - down from 732

Yorkshire 1335 - down from 1667.


And North West falls too - but by a smaller degree to 1469 from 1573.
 
Healdplace said:
Not such a good day for the NW today. Back up to the most cases in the UK.

However, only as the other regions have fallen more as the NW has another small fall too.

Though this shift from 4th to 1st increases my suspicions about the testing today. As it it is across the board and not reflecting areas that have seemed to be more impacted than others in recent days.


London 1409 - big drop from 2023

Midlands 1244 - big drop from 2020

North East 598 - down from 732

Yorkshire 1335 - down from 1667.


And North West falls too - but by a smaller degree to 1469 from 1573.
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It's a pity that the breakdown of tests by areas aren't available. Seems odd that London where the rate is on the rise has a bigger fall than the NW which has the lowest R rate in the country. Of course if three times as many tests are being done here than in London we will find more positive cases. And the cynic in me might suggest that the low numbers in the south is so that it can be claimed that the rate is dropping and so Tier 2 is more appropriate and everyone can go back on the tubes and into work
 
GM % of NW up slightly to 49% today.

However, total cases is a new low for many weeks at just 721 - 42 down on yesterday.

In other ways may not seem quite as good in that two boroughs over 100. The two you might expect.

But Manchester a new low for many weeks. And 4 boroughs at 50 or below tells you this was actually another good day.

Indeed starting to look like the very early days just after cases began to rise in August.

Not at all like even 10 days/ two weeks ago.
 
Eds said:
might suggest that the low numbers in the south is so that it can be claimed that the rate is dropping and so Tier 2 is more appropriate and everyone can go back on the tubes and into work
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if people have been working from home last 6/7 months, no chance they're gonna go back over the xmas period
 
kaz7 said:
I think about the number of deaths as people and not numbers , peoples loved ones, the numbers are shocking to me , not far off peak
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I feel the same way kaz.
That's the 'problem' with this analysis.
Because of the time lag between cases and deaths , people are becoming positive about the numbers ( when cases are falling) at exactly the time death numbers are rising.
 
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