Gabriel
Well-Known Member
I imagine a fair few of us have laughed at that and then shifted slightly uncomfortably.
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COVID-19 — Coronavirus
- Thread starter urban genie
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I imagine a fair few of us have laughed at that and then shifted slightly uncomfortably.
cleavers
Moderator
Laughing is good in these times I feel, I'm working from home right now in fact, I don't really resemble that obviously, but its been great taking 30 seconds to get to and from work, and sit in my shorts and a scruffy T shirt, and not having to shave to go to work.I imagine a fair few of us have laughed at that and then shifted slightly uncomfortably.
Gabriel
Well-Known Member
Laughing is good in these times I feel, I'm working from home right now in fact, I don't really resemble that obviously, but its been great taking 30 seconds to get to and from work, and sit in my shorts and a scruffy T shirt, and not having to shave to go to work.
Huge number of manpower hours are wasted each year with people travelling, often unnecessarily, to jobs that could increasingly be done from home. Not all, granted, but many.
Amused by how many fashion houses are now advertising designated ‘work from home’ ranges, though the fact that they seem to be a hybrid of pyjama/prison wear is less amusing.
quiet_riot
Well-Known Member
Droplets from speech are probably important and will typically travel a bit further than ordinary breathing.
Especially from scousers.
richardtheref
Well-Known Member
And Dominic Cummings spotted all over County Durham when he assured everyone he was within the rules. Spotted along the river Tees at Barnard Castle which is at least 30 miles away from his parents.
There's a study of infection fatality rates from Germany that's quite interesting.
People have been estimating how fatal this illness is since we first knew about it, and gradually we have learned that many people experience it asymptomatically or very mildly. A study from German county of Heinsberg in the North Rhine puts it the infection fatality rate at 0.36% which means that for every 1000 people who are infected, 3.6 will on average die. The author subsequently put it at around 0.25% because he thinks his study had some limitations in the way it was done. Once you know the IFR you can then work out the number of people who have been infected because the one thing we know reasonably well are deaths.
If you take IFR as 0.25% and the UK's 50,000 deaths, you come to 20 million infections. This does not match the antibody testing but then maybe most people do not generate antibodies? This fits what we know about the illness and how it disproportionately affects those people who have compromised immune systems, have a high viral load, of who express the ACE-2 receptor binding site. I think that maybe children and healthy adults fight it off without ever creating antibodies, and hence the antibody rates can not be used as a measure of infection rates. That's speculative on my part, and based on limited knowledge. I know that we have a general and specific arm to our immunity but I do not know enough to do anything more than speculate.
I found this Youtube presentation with this author which is a convenient way to access the study if you're interested, and there's also his paper.
https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD...on_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf
We have plenty examples of countries where the fatalities are low, and yet the epidemics is declining so clearly there's more to the declining epidemics than immunity. I think there's also seasonal effects, and demographics.
People have been estimating how fatal this illness is since we first knew about it, and gradually we have learned that many people experience it asymptomatically or very mildly. A study from German county of Heinsberg in the North Rhine puts it the infection fatality rate at 0.36% which means that for every 1000 people who are infected, 3.6 will on average die. The author subsequently put it at around 0.25% because he thinks his study had some limitations in the way it was done. Once you know the IFR you can then work out the number of people who have been infected because the one thing we know reasonably well are deaths.
If you take IFR as 0.25% and the UK's 50,000 deaths, you come to 20 million infections. This does not match the antibody testing but then maybe most people do not generate antibodies? This fits what we know about the illness and how it disproportionately affects those people who have compromised immune systems, have a high viral load, of who express the ACE-2 receptor binding site. I think that maybe children and healthy adults fight it off without ever creating antibodies, and hence the antibody rates can not be used as a measure of infection rates. That's speculative on my part, and based on limited knowledge. I know that we have a general and specific arm to our immunity but I do not know enough to do anything more than speculate.
I found this Youtube presentation with this author which is a convenient way to access the study if you're interested, and there's also his paper.
https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD...on_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf
We have plenty examples of countries where the fatalities are low, and yet the epidemics is declining so clearly there's more to the declining epidemics than immunity. I think there's also seasonal effects, and demographics.
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denislawsbackheel
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Perhaps it shows how much of an odious twat he is, that he had to drive all the way to Durham to find someone who liked him enough to look after his kids.And Dominic Cummings spotted all over County Durham when he assured everyone he was within the rules. Spotted along the river Tees at Barnard Castle which is at least 30 miles away from his parents.
ayrshire_blue
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There's a study of infection fatality rates from Germany that's quite interesting.
People have been estimating how fatal this illness is since we first knew about it, and gradually we have learned that many people experience it asymptomatically or very mildly. A study from German county of Heinsberg in the North Rhine puts it the infection fatality rate at 0.36% which means that for every 1000 people who are infected, 3.6 will on average die. The author subsequently put it at around 0.25% because he thinks his study had some limitations in the way it was done. Once you know the IFR you can then work out the number of people who have been infected because the one thing we know reasonably well are deaths.
If you take IFR as 0.25% and the UK's 50,000 deaths, you come to 20 million infections. This does not match the antibody testing but then maybe most people do not generate antibodies? This fits what we know about the illness and how it disproportionately affects those people who have compromised immune systems, have a high viral load, of who express the ACE-2 receptor binding site. I think that maybe children and healthy adults fight it off without ever creating antibodies, and hence the antibody rates can not be used as a measure of infection rates. That's speculative on my part, and based on limited knowledge. I know that we have a general and specific arm to our immunity but I do not know enough to do anything more than speculate.
I found this Youtube presentation with this author which is a convenient way to access the study if you're interested, and there's also his paper.
https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD...on_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf
We have plenty examples of countries where the fatalities are low, and yet the epidemics is declining so clearly there's more to the declining epidemics than immunity. I think there's also seasonal effects, and demographics.
I was following this up until the last paragraph. What are the seasonal situations which you think are affecting the epidemic and why?
kaz7
Well-Known Member
There's a study of infection fatality rates from Germany that's quite interesting.
People have been estimating how fatal this illness is since we first knew about it, and gradually we have learned that many people experience it asymptomatically or very mildly. A study from German county of Heinsberg in the North Rhine puts it the infection fatality rate at 0.36% which means that for every 1000 people who are infected, 3.6 will on average die. The author subsequently put it at around 0.25% because he thinks his study had some limitations in the way it was done. Once you know the IFR you can then work out the number of people who have been infected because the one thing we know reasonably well are deaths.
If you take IFR as 0.25% and the UK's 50,000 deaths, you come to 20 million infections. This does not match the antibody testing but then maybe most people do not generate antibodies? This fits what we know about the illness and how it disproportionately affects those people who have compromised immune systems, have a high viral load, of who express the ACE-2 receptor binding site. I think that maybe children and healthy adults fight it off without ever creating antibodies, and hence the antibody rates can not be used as a measure of infection rates. That's speculative on my part, and based on limited knowledge. I know that we have a general and specific arm to our immunity but I do not know enough to do anything more than speculate.
I found this Youtube presentation with this author which is a convenient way to access the study if you're interested, and there's also his paper.
https://www.ukbonn.de/C12582D3002FD...on_fatality_rate_of_SARS_CoV_2_infection2.pdf
We have plenty examples of countries where the fatalities are low, and yet the epidemics is declining so clearly there's more to the declining epidemics than immunity. I think there's also seasonal effects, and demographics.
Is it cold in brazil? Because they are a new hotspot
grunge
Well-Known Member
We have plenty examples of countries where the fatalities are low, and yet the epidemics is declining so clearly there's more to the declining epidemics than immunity. I think there's also seasonal effects, and demographics.
on this bit, where are you seeing that things are declining?, there are declines caused by the lockdowns but all in all, globally this is increasing still, in known cases that is anyways.
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