COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Tbf the Sage advice on the 13th March was that seeking to completely suppress the virus (lockdown) would lead to a 2nd peak.

This was John Edmunds from Sage in that date.



I think it’s clear that the science unfortunately got it wrong at the start of the epidemic here.


I don’t think SAGE have covered themselves in glory either (including this chap)!but what he’s saying that virtually everybody has to have resistance to the virus to eliminate the thread is probably true. Most of the expert say this approach is unrealistic unless you have a vaccine and the death toll was going to be even more horrendous by blindly seeking herd immunity.

Some of the “follow the science” stuff is really about following the WHO’s recommended procedures including test, trace and isolate. IMHO we needed a more bureaucratic and less of a maverick approach. SAGE said some of their key decision was in formatted by a lack of texting and tracing capacity so that wasn’t following “the science” from early March.
 
I don’t think SAGE have covered themselves in glory either (including this chap)!but what he’s saying that virtually everybody has to have resistance to the virus to eliminate the thread is probably true. Most of the expert say this approach is unrealistic unless you have a vaccine and the death toll was going to be even more horrendous by blindly seeking herd immunity.

Some of the “follow the science” stuff is really about following the WHO’s recommended procedures including test, trace and isolate. IMHO we needed a more bureaucratic and less of a maverick approach. SAGE said some of their key decision was in formatted by a lack of texting and tracing capacity so that wasn’t following “the science” from early March.

‘18 February – PHE contact tracing limited

Sage concludes that “priorities would shift during a potential outbreak from containment and isolation on to delay and, finally, to case management”. It says Public Health England could cope with “five new cases a week (requiring isolation of 800 contacts)”, with potential capacity to increase to 50 new cases and 8,000 contact isolations.’


That was from one of the Sage meetings, shows we were nowhere near a position to be able to track and trace, god knows how much of a better position were in now.
 
‘18 February – PHE contact tracing limited

Sage concludes that “priorities would shift during a potential outbreak from containment and isolation on to delay and, finally, to case management”. It says Public Health England could cope with “five new cases a week (requiring isolation of 800 contacts)”, with potential capacity to increase to 50 new cases and 8,000 contact isolations.’


That was from one of the Sage meetings, shows we were nowhere near a position to be able to track and trace, god knows how much of a better position were in now.

Exactly
 
Incredible front page this, in many ways. Have they only put Bez on the cover because of some tenuous link to Monday?!
 
I tell you what, seeing people who mean a lot to you, even from many metres away, is pretty bloody lovely at the moment. Feel so much better. Lovely day in the sun, safely saw some friendly faces, and barely been online all day. A mildly normal day and fuck me, I needed it. Would recommend the same for anyone who has felt pretty consumed by everything recently. Everything is shite, yep, but really don't underestimate the value of seeing someone you care about, even with social distancing.
 
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