People in Victoria were enjoying being very much outside after lockdown. Now they have to stay in again.
That’s unfortunate.
But the vast majority of current research indicates that most transmission occurs in confined spaces after prolonged exposure to one or more infected persons (there’s also recently been increased evidence that aerosol transmission occurs more often than previously believed, which would make transmission indoors even easier). Risk of transmission does increase in large, non-socially distanced crowds outside, but it is still much less likely with open, fresh air circulation.
My point was that the virus “likes” any weather that forces people in to confined spaces with limited fresh or properly filtered air circulation for long periods of time (like pubs, cafes, bars, music venues, restaurants, etc.). That includes cold and very hot weather.
Many people in Florida were doing the same as people in Victoria (if not to an even more irresponsible degree)...
...but public health experts are not attributing the state’s horrific rise in new cases and hospitalisations to the outdoor activities, but rather the indoor ones that occur in tandem with them (i.e. as the people went outside more, they also went inside to non-home environments more before and after the outdoor activities, before then going to family and friends’ homes). Public heath experts in Texas and Arizona, where it has also been very hot over the last month, attribute their precipitous case/hospitalisation increases to indoor activity. Those people are basically creating nearly perfect transmission pathways. Many local officials are now trying to shut down outdoor areas like pool bars/restaurants and beaches in order to prevent the associated travel to the more confined indoor spaces by the people going to them (and to lower the lesser risk of transmission in the overcrowded outdoor areas, as an added benefit). Of course, that would all be a generally less urgent issue if people properly socially distanced and wore masks, but that is a different (and frustrating) discussion.
The “it’ll go away when it gets warmer and come back when it gets colder” theory is inaccurate.