COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

the rise in incubaters could be instead of dying, they are surviving.

Hopefully you are right here. We will see over coming weeks.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

i have no medical background, but this is an antibody test on a large sample size (~100k) using finger prick tests, which have been assessed for accuracy in the 2nd link. To my knowledge this does not include T-cells, no. This is due to the time needed for T-cell test where as this focuses on creating a method that is quick, widespread and uses large amounts of data. The results do fall in line with other infection-fatality rates in Spain, Italy (slightly below) and Germany (more).

so yes, this reinforces antibody knowledge, not so much T-cell stuff.

Thank you for the article and the summary mate. Very interesting, but yeah kind of falls in line with other recent seroprevalence studies. Any future possible studies on T cells as @grunge mentions could hold the key - that's if there is a way of measuring the data.

Scotland update. Good (ish),

0 deaths - 28th day.

But 47 cases (1%) and 26 in Grampian area.

However, 258 now in hospital (-7 on yesterday) and down on last week for first time lately.

Still 3 on icu ventilators.

Was just about to post this. Hospital figures good news. Hopefully it continues. I believe this is the 2nd lowest hospital numbers, after July 31st when the figure was 255 with 4 of those on ventilators. Be great to get below that number tomorrow.

 

[Healdplace]

I too doubt the 6% have had it number is accurate. But even if it is - you have to remember it is the survivors obviously - and so misses out those who have had it and died.

And at 6% we are talking 4 - 5 million or so have had it with only 40,000 dying. So the death rate is sub 1% and not the kind of level many once feared ior raw stats implied.

And obviously much lower the younger you are.

Plus the % will be much higher in population dense areas. Every study has found that. So the GM infection level will be well above 6% you can be reasonsbly sure. I think New York found very high numbers (possibly too high) - but I would not be surprised at 20% plus in such badly impacted locations.

I slso think T Cells may well be a factor so the antibody levels may be not irrelevant but less relevat than they seem.

And in recent days I have seen more than one scientist argue the behaviour of the virus (lethality im particular) seems to have changed and that may well be another factor that makes the situation less dire than it may seem. As I think thereare pointers in the data hinting at the death rate tumbling for various reasons even when the case numbers rise

 

[Eds]

 

[Healdplace]

Thank you for the article and the summary mate. Very interesting, but yeah kind of falls in line with other recent seroprevalence studies. Any future possible studies on T cells as @grunge mentions could hold the key - that's if there is a way of measuring the data.


Was just about to post this. Hospital figures good news. Hopefully it continues. I believe this is the 2nd lowest hospital numbers, after July 31st when the figure was 255 with 4 of those on ventilators. Be great to get below that number tomorrow.

Agreed. And fingers crossed it will. Also the numbers from new cases whilst high are not exploding and are at what in many countries would be regarded as background levels. So that too is good news.

We have outbreaks, but they are not (yet) showing any sign of becoming significant rising hospital numbers or deaths to any degree and the outbreaks are not running out of control.

We might just be seeing what the new normal is going to be until we have a vaccine.

And happily right now that normal looks far far better than it did in April.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

That tweet is over a month old. also he'd have better credibility if everything he said wasn't so happy clappy. He makes statements when the evidence isn't proven just like the tweet above. Hope he is right though.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland last Thursday v today shows promising data over a week that was critical to seeing if we can contain outbreaks or see them escalate and increase numbers in hospital. So far both look on track.

Deaths 0 v 0

Cases 67 v 47

Grampian outbreak 39 v 26

ICU 4 v3

Hospital patients 270 v 258

 

[Healdplace]

Of course, the elephant in the room is whether what is possible in Scotland and Aberdeen is as possible in England and Oldham.

 

[somapop]

On the Russian Vaccine:

 

[somapop]

...and potential new treatment (this was retweeted by the Peter guy above):

https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...tics-discovers-promising-covidminus-19-killer