COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[ayrshire_blue]

My current reading of the situation is that because the Spanish and French didn't leave their care home system to the wolves, they are now having problems, whereas our country left them to die (sending suspected covid patients back into care homes was criminal). I'm not saying for one saying "I know there won't be a second wave", because I'd be talking out my arse if I did, just saying that the current numbers are not running out of control.

Sorry, I might be misinterpreting this, but if France and Spain didn't leave their care he system to the wolves then, why are they having ever increasingly major problems now? Have they made an arse of it with their care homes now, but not then? Or something else altogether?

I remember when Italy and Spain were so bad at the beginning, a lot of people were putting it down to them being more 'family' people than the likes of the British. They live longer with their parents and even their grandparents, they kiss each other on the cheek as a greeting etc etc. In the end, it hit us just as bad. Isn't this time round likely just to follow the same path?

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Cheers mate. Difficult to see any light at the end of the tunnel at this time unfortunately. It is what it is, and people will be in much worse situations than me I realise that.

Figures were worse at the end of May but I felt more positive then because you could see improvements were coming, we've went full circle though and feels more and more like it's March 23rd again.

There was some bad reporting and deliberate salesmanship in the early summer, with vaccines this autumn being touted by politicians.

I can understand that this was at least in part to make people see a bright light at the end of the tunnel when things were at the worst, but the downside is the crash when the goodfeeling wears off, and also by the wider recognition that politicians have not been honest, barring maybe Sturgeon.

What is important is that the hidden R&D is months along the line, and is happening as fast as it can be. The boffins will find some solutions, and we are several months closer to that now than we were.

 

[bluejon]

Fair enough, bluejon. This is all about analysis and opinions. But why do you think the government scientists are not on board with this and seem more concerned?

I really think people would love to see a counterpoint of optimism. I definitely would. As I know there is room for different readings of this.

The escalating hospital numbers and fairly rapid rise of ventilated patients and the nudging up of deaths looks pretty clear to my non scientst eyes.

Yes the numbers are not out of control - agreed - yet - but is there any good reason to think they will stall or just inch up to modest levels rather than carry on doubling every seven days?

Certainly without taking extra measures now as seems being considered.

From a statistical point of view the numbers of deaths have essentially remained constant for a long time. Any random process, which this definitely is, has inbuilt fluctuations, which is what can be observed. If the numbers start showing a constant increase over time then i will start worrying. I'm not saying this to be offhand at all, I check the numbers every single day, and I'm not concerned at this moment in time. If I see something to worry about, I won't think twice about highlighting it.

 

[bluejon]

Sorry, I might be misinterpreting this, but if France and Spain didn't leave their care he system to the wolves then, why are they having ever increasingly major problems now? Have they made an arse of it with their care homes now, but not then? Or something else altogether?

I remember when Italy and Spain were so bad at the beginning, a lot of people were putting it down to them being more 'family' people than the likes of the British. They live longer with their parents and even their grandparents, they kiss each other on the cheek as a greeting etc etc. In the end, it hit us just as bad. Isn't this time round likely just to follow the same path?

To be a bit clearer, I believe the lack of protection of the venerable in this country at the beginning means that a greater majority of the 'at risk' people have already died from covid here. They were left to die. I have no idea if this was deliberate or not, but it was disgraceful. Spain and France looked after theirs more.

As for the 'family' thing, I was crapping myself at the beginning of this as we have significant multi-generational households round me, and I was expecting an absolute disaster based on the imperial college model of the disease at the beginning as people were not social distancing etc. It hasn't happened (and I believe that is because the imperial college model is just wrong).

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Fair enough, bluejon. This is all about analysis and opinions. But why do you think the government scientists are not on board with this and seem more concerned?

I really think people would love to see a counterpoint of optimism. I definitely would. As I know there is room for different readings of this.

The escalating hospital numbers and fairly rapid rise of ventilated patients and the nudging up of deaths looks pretty clear to my non scientst eyes.

Yes the numbers are not out of control - agreed - yet - but is there any good reason to think they will stall or just inch up to modest levels rather than carry on doubling every seven days?

Certainly without taking extra measures now as seems being considered.

My guess would be Keeping It Simple, and to highlight the worst outcome.

It may not get to the worst outcome, but it would be harder to convince people with "might be bad" than what they have said: "prepare for some more restrictions as being better than a possible nuclear option later".

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Age ranges of Scottish infections announced today

Over 65s - 24
Under 15s - 11
All the rest in between, with the biggest numbers by far in the 25-64 age range (157).

 

[cleavers]

I know most of the experts predicted a second wave, but did they predict when things might start to improve again? Ie are we in for a shitty 8 months or so now until the sun comes back out again?

News is absolutely depressing.

We've just had 2 weeks of pretty sunny weather down here in the south(ish) of England, its been lovely, and we have one more day of it, then into Autumn, it might help explain why the spread down here hasn't escalated so quickly.

 

[Healdplace]

Thanks Ayrshire, that's a little up to almost 10% of over 65s today.

 

[True_Blue69]

Prof Sikora on BBC news now saying that him and a bunch of epidemiologists have written to the government advising them to sit tight and don't make and rash decisions in implementing and more measures. They are saying that although cases are rising, those getting seriously ill is remaining low. Also spoke about Spain and France to point out that although the numbers of deaths has risen, healthcare is nowhere near bring overrun and the numbers remain relatively low. Specially referred to the current scaremongering in the UK.

 

[cleavers]

I haven't suggested it won't get worse, it is entirely possible, I'm saying that there is no evidence yet that is happening. Essentially I think there's too much panic over what might happen and not enough clear analysis of what we actually know.

Why do you think the CMO, and CS held an unscheduled press conference this morning to the whole country then ?