COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[purplenose]

And another year before they could vaccinate the relevant amount of people.

There won't be football fans inside UK stadium until next season.

I am not so sure I can see stadiums being open March time.

Lets say that there is no start to Vaccination programmes until January, I would think that by March key workers elderly and the vulnerable will have been jabbed.

Once that is done then whilst not beaten the virus would be far less dangerous. Given there is talk of this beginning as soon as November I do think there is room for some hope that whilst not back to normal we can hope to be well on the way come spring.

If I am wrong on this the actual virus is probably the least of our worries as the consequences of it will then be reaching the levels of severity that would trigger untold unrest and conflict across the globe.

 

[Healdplace]

These statistics that show that the rate of infection is increasing rapidly really are unreliable. I don't mean you @Healdplace, but the original source. Healdplace, I for one and like many others on here, am very grateful for and really appreciate your valuable contributions!

I appreciate and respect that the number is increasing but that is primarily because we are doing more tests on more people. If we'd been doing 400,000 tests a day back in March/April, I'm certain the numbers would either be the same as or greater than what we are seeing today.

The only figure that should matter is the positive cases as a % of the number of tests done. In these circumstance that is the only measure we can rely on, and even that would be dubious. That is the primary relationship we should be looking at, the we can relate that % figure to the total population both historically and for the present - that will give us the best comparison that we should be talking about.

Whilst the "headcount" is mildly interesting and a bit informative it is NOT the figure the Government should be developing policy on.... it is absolutely futile!!!

Thank you for the kind words and, yes, of course we are seeing more cases because we were doing 20,000 tests in earlier months and about 250,000 - 300,000 now (though that latter number just the past week has come in sight).

But we are undeniably upping testing and that is a good thing and explains much of what we see unquestionably.

But it isn't 400,000 of the tests that find cases. It sounds good for politicians to promote it as if its what we do daily but in reality it is only the pillar one and two tests that contribute to finding new cases as others are done for different reasons such as antibody testing and we are doing a lot of these pilar 3 & 4 tests now - 134, 689 of yesterdays tests were for this purpose not new case detection.

They help us see who might have had the virus in the past - so not really part of measuring an ongoing outbreak.

And - yes - you are totally right about the percentage and, as you will know , I have been saying why this matters in here for months and do always look for it and give it. And it is very noticeable that only one country in the UK goes out of its way not to mention it. England. I doubt that is because they think it is unimportant.

Here is a list of the past week of UK cases found versus the 1 & 2 tests that day. It has reached a quarter of a million now regularly (though only very recently) and was up to the past week or so often less than 200,000 and some of these will be multiple tests on one person too.

Pillar 1 and 2 Tests v cases found. You can guesstimate a % from there.

2 Oct 296,699 v 6968

1 Oct 310, 993 v 6914

30 Sep 288,899 v 7108

29 Sep 287, 690 v 7143

28 Sep 268,815 v 4044

27 Sep 270, 097 v 5693

26 Sep 270, 921 v 6042


As you can see it is pretty hard to see any clear pattern but it is also true that it is not evidence of an escalation.

 

[Healdplace]

The only numbers that matter are hospital admissions , those on ventilators and deaths , with the caveats i have already explained , all are going up

THey are important and why I post them Kaz but the cases are the first indicator of any measures working as the hospital numbers, ventilators and deaths are stages 2, 3 and 4 in a month or even longer process. Case numbers are step 1 in showing where we are tracking and as speed matters we need to monitor them to act fast enough in any measures we take or tweak because if we do not there will be needless deaths caused by that delay in seeing changes to the later stages of this four step indicator.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

THey are important and why I post them Kaz but the cases are the first indicator of any measures working as the hospital numbers, ventilators and deaths are stages 2, 3 and 4 in a month or even longer process. Case numbers are step 1 in showing where we are tracking and as speed matters we need to monitor them to act fast enough in any measures we take or tweak because if we do not there will be needless deaths caused by that delay in seeing changes to the later stages of this four step indicator.

keep up the good work mate . I find it interesting and helpful.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

He is the worlds most powerful man , he is supressing democracy and the press, as he says he could shoot someone in the street and nobody would be bothered , he would kill people to keep power if he could

Oh i left off sexist and openly racist

People just dissapear in China! Why do you think that is?

Human rights in China

Stay up to date on the state of human rights in China with the latest research, campaigns and education material from Amnesty International.

www.amnesty.org

You seriously cant believe that Trump is worse than the dictator Xi Jingpin?

Human rights aside, China are also a real threat to global stability with very agressive territorial claims and a very fast growing blue water navy. They are also securing an awful lot of the worlds scarce mineral rights in Africa and South America thru unsavoury methods.

They are odds on to be involved in the next major world conflict based on their ridiculous territorial claims in the South China Sea.

 

[kaz7]

People just dissapear in China! Why do you think that is?

Human rights in China

Stay up to date on the state of human rights in China with the latest research, campaigns and education material from Amnesty International.

www.amnesty.org

You seriously cant believe that Trump is worse than the dictator Xi Jingpin?

Human rights aside, China are also a real threat to global stability with very agressive territorial claims and a very fast growing blue water navy. They are also securing an awful lot of the worlds scarce mineral rights in Africa and South America thru unsavoury methods.

They are odds on to be involved in the next major world conflict based on their ridiculous territorial claims in the South China Sea.

The leader of the free world is the most powerful man , impeached but saved by his party has given him licence to do what he wants , he is rigging the election openly as do all despots and dictators, he also sent in the unmarked federal troops to take people off the streets

Anyway we are way off topic for this thread

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

The leader of the free world is the most powerful man , impeached but saved by his party has given him licence to do what he wants , he is rigging the election openly as do all despots and dictators, he also sent in the unmarked federal troops to take people off the streets

Anyway we are way off topic for this thread

we are indeed, I think we shall have to agree to diasagree. All i would say is where would you feel most safe? In Washington publicly parading an anti Trump placard or in Beijing parading an anti Xi Jinping Placard??

Back on topic, which Coronavirus cases and death figures do you feel are more honest the USAs or China's?

 

[kaz7]

we are indeed, I think we shall have to agree to diasagree. All i would say is where would you feel most safe? In Washington publicly parading an anti Trump placard or in Beijing parading an anti Xi Jinping Placard??

Back on topic, which Coronavirus cases and death figures do you feel are more honest the USAs or China's?

Neither , nor ours for that matter

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v5.full.pdf

Interesting stuff in here. Clearly if you catch this over the age of 75 and 85 then your risk of dying is dramatically increased.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Neither , nor ours for that matter

I agree I think our covid deaths are clearly over estimated compared to many other countries.