COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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The Light Was Yellow Sir

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Underestimated and the ridiculous 28 day cut off
It’s not ridiculous at all really.
The 28 day cut off is specifically to bring the definitions into line with the other UK countries and provide a much more accurate, and more responsive measure of the immediate impact of COVID on deaths. This allows a much better understanding about whether deaths related to COVID are trending up or down which should inform policy decisions more accurately.
 

ayrshire_blue

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It gets worse.

Of Scottish infections today

90 are in people aged 65+
42 are in children under 15
128 in young adults 15-19
504 in ages 20-64
 

The Light Was Yellow Sir

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Is our healthcare system so much worse than every other country in Europe, in fact most of the world? I know its not the best but i dont understand how such a high proportion of people diagnosed with covid can die in the UK compared to other countries. Health care must play a part in that, also the age of the population. Any other reasons??
The league table we are way way at the top of is deaths per hospital bed, because we’ve spent years and years cutting beds, cutting staff and cutting critical care beds. In this measure (technically San Marino would be above us but only because they all go to hospitals in Italy), we are out on our own and will explain, in future years, the extraordinary number of excess deaths in 2020.
 

Healdplace

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2 Oct adds 11 = 11 after one day and the first time that a double figure number of deaths have been reorded in the previous 24 hours since mid June. 8 of those 11 from the last 24 hours died in the NW.

1 Oct adds 21 = 30 after 2 days. No second day total fot 5 days now has been below 21 and three are in the 30s. Showing the sudden acceleration of deaths this week. These were more evenly spread but another 8 were from the NW - so 16 people have died in the last 48 hours in just the NW.

30 Sep adds 5 = 39 after three days. This is the highest total at 3 days since 24 June.

29 Sep adds 2 = 32 after four days. Six of the last 10 four day totals have been in the 20s or 30s and none below 14. In the ten days before that none were above 15 and four of them were in single figures. And the 10 days before that All were 10 or below (and only one not single figures).

28 Sep adds 0 = 36 after five days.

The other two deaths were from early August.
 

kaz7

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It’s not ridiculous at all really.
The 28 day cut off is specifically to bring the definitions into line with the other UK countries and provide a much more accurate, and more responsive measure of the immediate impact of COVID on deaths. This allows a much better understanding about whether deaths related to COVID are trending up or down which should inform policy decisions more accurately.
Many die after 28 days as already discussed
 

Gareth Barry Manilow

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Was tested on Thursday morning, after feeling a bit rough, test came back positive on Friday evening. Impressed with the drive-in test centre flow now, much better than when I had a previous tests months ago. I am fortunate that I’ve only ‘mild symptoms’, and will now be spending this rainy week locked in trying not to go stir crazy.
 

Healdplace

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It gets worse.

Of Scottish infections today

90 are in people aged 65+
42 are in children under 15
128 in young adults 15-19
504 in ages 20-64


That is indeed very worrying added to all the other data. First big shift in that number here up to 12% (almost double recent days) and might explain why deaths are starting to climb in Scotland too and ventilator patients accelerating faster than they were a week ago.

Todays numbers are certainly in nobody's reality good. But let us recall these are mostly the consequence of things that happened maybe a month or more ago before we did anything much to try to stop them.

Whether we have done enough now remains to be seen. But Boris already talking today of releasing the restrictions in places like GM when numbers improve.

I hope he means caution not hasty complacency if things start to look good one day. As they are in the GM data. But ending them too soon might be as bad as never starting them.
 
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kaz7

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Was tested on Thursday morning, after feeling a bit rough, test came back positive on Friday evening. Impressed with the drive-in test centre flow now, much better than when I had a previous tests months ago. I am fortunate that I’ve only ‘mild symptoms’, and will now be spending this rainy week locked in trying not to go stir crazy.
Glad you are not too badly affected
 

west didsblue

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Many die after 28 days as already discussed
That is offset to some extent by people who die within 28 days of a positive test when Covid isn’t the primary cause of death.
Ultimately though, our figures are worse than nearly every comparable country, and the responsibility of that has to be with the leadership.
 

kaz7

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That is offset to some extent by people who die within 28 days of a positive test when Covid isn’t the primary cause of death.
Ultimately though, our figures are worse than nearly every comparable country, and the responsibility of that has to be with the leadership.
As discussed before the death certificate has different parts, secondary cause or a link , like me if i died of asthma given to me from covid , it would make the covid link and it is a notifiable disease so has to be on there

Having a cut off when we know what we now know and dropping thousands off the number stinks of damage limitation of the figures to save face and look less incompetent
 
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