COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Gaylord du Bois said:
Haha. Funny you should say that but I was thinking of starting a sweep on , 'Peoffreys Friday'.
Fair play to him. I'd only managed two bars tonight before the guilt kicked in. An early bath for my conscience, I'm afraid.
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I was shattered last night so it was a few German Pilsner in front of Bootlegger YouTube vids.

Being called out by Mancunians for liking a drink! Next I’ll be called out by Scousers for stealing.
 
Trump probably did test positive. But may have only a mild form. Even if your fat and unhealthy like him you can still get Covid and be ok.
 
worsleyweb said:
no would be more surprised if they not had it. They meet lots of people in there work. Both in huge cities and travel a lot.
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Possibly
The number of crazy conspiracy theories our there are unreal.
urban genie said:
Yes many do.

I was sceptical johnoson had it and was blagging it to bunk off responsibilty and work because he is a feckless twat

Trump I am sure has been bull shitting, none of hos covid infection adds up
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Have you seen some of the conspiracy theories?
Some are just bonkers but make interesting reading.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:

Probable healthcare associated infections in England | The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine

www.cebm.net www.cebm.net

nearly a quarter of new cases 24% in the north west were caught by people in hospital. They went in for something else and caught Covid.
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Which is a very good demonstration of why backlogs in cancer treatment is a fault of covid rather than lockdown and why getting community transmission down is essential to getting health care transmission down if cancer treatment and diagnosis is to improve.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
You do wonder why everything is being painted as being so catastrophic when you watch this..
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It will be interesting to see if he is right about the figures starting to go down in the NW. He might be. Or not.

Last nights figures were certainly more positive in that regard and surprisingly so. More like 2/3 weeks ago. If that pattern continues over the next few days and there was no testing cock up again or it does not escalate again then it will be very good news. But its early days to be sure of that. Hopefully he is correct.

Case numbers will always be the first indicator of things turning around or starting to plateau. Hospital admissions would then follow a few days on. Then ICU ventilated patients. Then deaths. So in the interim it would not be a surprise to see cases drop and the other indicators not seem to do so for a few days or even a week or two in deaths.

Would be rather ironic IF that happens over the next 10 days/two weeks and the government then gets to claim credit for success by way of the restrictions they impose on Monday when they may already see this glimmer and know that IF it is real they would do so almost regardless of what they do. Though I imagine they will think the restrictions imposed might be needed to give the final kick to ensure the progress crystalises.

But the temptation to let the fall become obvious next week and people then presume they have created the fall omce it becomes obvious to the wider public must be strong.

The bottom line here - though - is that all predictions are like picking lottery numbers. You win or you lose and whatever strategy you have for choosing numbers in the end likely has very little to do with what fate decrees was going to happen anyway.
 
Healdplace said:
It will be interesting to see if he is right about the figures starting to go down in the NW. He might be. Or not.

Last nights figures were certainly more positive in that regard and surprisingly so. More like 2/3 weeks ago. If that pattern continues over the next few days and there was no testing cock up again or it does not escalate again then it will be very good news. But its early days to be sure of that. Hopefully he is correct.

Case numbers will always be the first indicator of things turning around or starting to plateau. Hospital admissions would then follow a few days on. Then ICU ventilated patients. Then deaths. So in the interim it would not be a surprise to see cases drop and the other indicators not seem to do so for a few days or even a week or two in deaths.

Would be rather ironic IF that happens over the next 10 days/two weeks and the government then gets to claim credit for success by way of the restrictions they impose on Monday when they may already see this glimmer and know that IF it is real they would do so almost regardless of what they do. Though I imagine they will think the restrictions imposed might be needed to give the final kick to ensure the progress crystalises.

But the temptation to let the fall become obvious next week and people then presume they have created the fall omce it becomes obvious to the wider public must be strong.

The bottom line here - though - is that all predictions are like picking lottery numbers. You win or you lose and whatever strategy you have for choosing numbers in the end likely has very little to do with what fate decrees was going to happen anyway.
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Whilst not disagreeing, he’s not essentially ‘predicting’ he‘s using evidence of real infections. He was the first one to spot the loss of taste/smell and the government changed their advice THREE months later. He now talks about fatigue and headache as a likely first symptom along with the anosmia and ageusia. What I particularly like about him is that he doesn’t treat you as an idiot and , like all proper scientists, he keeps looking and isn’t wedded to the outcome or the answer he wants, which I rather suspect isn’t true of some members of SAGE unfortunately.
The report he sends to the government every day, at their request, has definitely been showing a reduction in Ro, although as you know, it’s always only a best guess which is why he rightly shows a range with confidence intervals.
 
I did like that video and will keep watching his updates. But the problem with tiredness as a symptom is lockdown and isolation creates that on its own so separating out whether it is a symptom of Covid or a symptom of stressful avoiding of catching Covid would be an issue. The loss of taste and smell though was a big call and I agree that was key when it was spotted.
 
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