COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Healdplace said:
It will be interesting to see if he is right about the figures starting to go down in the NW. He might be. Or not.

Last nights figures were certainly more positive in that regard and surprisingly so. More like 2/3 weeks ago. If that pattern continues over the next few days and there was no testing cock up again or it does not escalate again then it will be very good news. But its early days to be sure of that. Hopefully he is correct.

Case numbers will always be the first indicator of things turning around or starting to plateau. Hospital admissions would then follow a few days on. Then ICU ventilated patients. Then deaths. So in the interim it would not be a surprise to see cases drop and the other indicators not seem to do so for a few days or even a week or two in deaths.

Would be rather ironic IF that happens over the next 10 days/two weeks and the government then gets to claim credit for success by way of the restrictions they impose on Monday when they may already see this glimmer and know that IF it is real they would do so almost regardless of what they do. Though I imagine they will think the restrictions imposed might be needed to give the final kick to ensure the progress crystalises.

But the temptation to let the fall become obvious next week and people then presume they have created the fall omce it becomes obvious to the wider public must be strong.

The bottom line here - though - is that all predictions are like picking lottery numbers. You win or you lose and whatever strategy you have for choosing numbers in the end likely has very little to do with what fate decrees was going to happen anyway.
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Witty and Vallance might have scared some spike into safer habits with the streets of Liverpool City Centre virtually empty all week.

I found the video helpful and hopefully infections in Manchester and the rest of the North West will fall. Clearly, there is a bleaker outlook for the North East and Yorkshire of the Scientist in the video is correct. Maybe that reflects the end of the student surge but it’s too early to tell if the majority in even the worst affected Hall of Residence haven’t had the virus yet.

Manchester Council leaders are still lobbying the Government to try to avoid full lockdown of pubs / restaurants and offering to help with stricter enforcement of current or local rules.
 
ONS data analysed in Oxford on deaths from Covid up to the end of last month show that the average age of those who have died from it is 82.4.

Surprisingly high.

22,301 over 85 died in those 9 months,

17,096 aged 75 to 84

7803 aged 65 - 74

6069 aged 45 - 64

581 aged 15 - 44

4 aged between 1 and 14

And 2 under 1

25% of those in the top two age ranges were also suffering from advanced dementia,

But over 33% of those admitted to ICU in UK hospitals in September were aged 40 - 59.
 
Healdplace said:
ONS data analysed in Oxford on deaths from Covid up to the end of last month show that the average age of those who have died from it is 82.4.

Surprisingly high.

22,301 over 85 died in those 9 months,

17,096 aged 75 to 84

7803 aged 65 - 74

6069 aged 45 - 64

581 aged 15 - 44

4 aged between 1 and 14

And 2 under 1

25% of those in the top two age ranges were also suffering from advanced dementia,

But over 33% of those admitted to ICU in UK hospitals in September were aged 40 - 59.
Click to expand...

Average life expectancy in the UK is 81, make of that what you will.
 
Healdplace said:
It will be interesting to see if he is right about the figures starting to go down in the NW. He might be. Or not.

Last nights figures were certainly more positive in that regard and surprisingly so. More like 2/3 weeks ago. If that pattern continues over the next few days and there was no testing cock up again or it does not escalate again then it will be very good news. But its early days to be sure of that. Hopefully he is correct.

Case numbers will always be the first indicator of things turning around or starting to plateau. Hospital admissions would then follow a few days on. Then ICU ventilated patients. Then deaths. So in the interim it would not be a surprise to see cases drop and the other indicators not seem to do so for a few days or even a week or two in deaths.

Would be rather ironic IF that happens over the next 10 days/two weeks and the government then gets to claim credit for success by way of the restrictions they impose on Monday when they may already see this glimmer and know that IF it is real they would do so almost regardless of what they do. Though I imagine they will think the restrictions imposed might be needed to give the final kick to ensure the progress crystalises.

But the temptation to let the fall become obvious next week and people then presume they have created the fall omce it becomes obvious to the wider public must be strong.

The bottom line here - though - is that all predictions are like picking lottery numbers. You win or you lose and whatever strategy you have for choosing numbers in the end likely has very little to do with what fate decrees was going to happen anyway.
Click to expand...
He said the rate of increase is dropping in the NW , it is still going up, just not as quickly as the NE
 
inchy14 said:
Doesn’t hurt the retired, not financially anyway as they still get their pensions, certainly doesn’t hurt the wealthy either.
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So, your assumption is that pensioners are wealthy, stop right there with that one.
Of course it hurts the retired. Could you survive on a state pension and confined to your house?
 
Healdplace said:
ONS data analysed in Oxford on deaths from Covid up to the end of last month show that the average age of those who have died from it is 82.4.

Surprisingly high.

22,301 over 85 died in those 9 months,

17,096 aged 75 to 84

7803 aged 65 - 74

6069 aged 45 - 64

581 aged 15 - 44

4 aged between 1 and 14

And 2 under 1

25% of those in the top two age ranges were also suffering from advanced dementia,

But over 33% of those admitted to ICU in UK hospitals in September were aged 40 - 59.
Click to expand...

well I am sorry but the punishment is far worse than the crime. Half the country going mental.
 
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