COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Status
Not open for further replies.
bobbyowenquiff said:
The German strategy is to target testing and tracing mainly in areas with clusters. They trace most of those infected and protect the vunerable. It has been a success so far.
The UK has a mindless random strategy of testing hundreds of thousands and not tracing their contacts. It is pointless doing all these tests and not following it up. The only statistic that matters is hospitalisations and deaths. There is nothing impressive about our Government's response. It has been pitiful.
Click to expand...
OT

The criticism was made about our testing capacity. End of. It was not a debate about our handling of the crisis, which I agree has been shocking.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
This is pretty funny. There are many vaccines under development. They *all* have very similar trials to judge safety and efficacy.

Let's assume the "Oxford" vaccine - first in the queue is successful and rolled out. You're not taking that one. Too risky.

Next up is Moderna. Let's assume that's successful too.

So, you're now going to take the Moderna vaccine. Even though it has the same safety studies as Oxford, but definitely safer, right?

Now, what if I tell you that the Moderna vaccine is an entirely new concept, never before commercialised. You still think it's safer?
Click to expand...
You clearly didn't get the point I was making.
I'll take the the next Covid-19 vaccine that is designed to cope with expected new mutations (as per flu). There is absolutely no point in taking the vaccine that covers current Italian/Spanish variants of SARS2 descended from the Singapore variant.
1. I still have antibodies.
2. My immune system is primed to fight the virus genus.
3. My immune system is primed to fight current Italian/Spanish genetic versions of the virus. The evidence is that if you catch a similar genetic variant again you barely get ill (if at all).
4. Its a new vaccine. Information on testing on people who have already had the virus is currently unavailable.
5. There are lots of other, more needy, people in the vaccine queue before me.
 
Last edited:
ayrshire_blue said:
Could be absolutely miles off with this, and don't want to be seen as peddling utter bullshit, but interesting to see the figures from London and New York which both had an awful first wave. Could the herd immunity threshold be much lower than the 65% or so anticipated or could the seroprevalence rate be much higher than the 10% or so estimated? As I say, only speculating and could be miles off.
Click to expand...

I have posted a few times over the past 3 or 4 months about the parallels with New York in here and advising we watch that trend closely. I saw this months ago as potentially significant and the way the wave hit New York and the UK early was the same.

It is not responding like other US states now either and mirrored the UK quite well over the Summer. I poisted figures showing that from time in here over the Summer if you look back.

Others have said in here it is not really as close as it seems but I do think that New York and the UK share a kind of pattern of urban compactness that are not obvious in other US states (even big cities like LA are far more spread out than New York is constrained by being island based like the UK).

How much it is a factor of herd immunity is another argument but thetre are parallels that look instructive.
 
Last edited:
bobbyowenquiff said:
The German strategy is to target testing and tracing mainly in areas with clusters. They trace most of those infected and protect the vunerable. It has been a success so far.
The UK has a mindless random strategy of testing hundreds of thousands and not tracing their contacts. It is pointless doing all these tests and not following it up. The only statistic that matters is hospitalisations and deaths. There is nothing impressive about our Government's response. It has been pitiful.
Click to expand...
As I posted yesterday, Germany (amongst a number of other European countries) had their highest new cases in the pandemic yesterday, well below our worst, but near double a week ago, and roughly where we were about 18 days ago.
 
Thank you for the Iriah data Jim.

This really is a global problem with similar patterns pretty much all across northern Europe right now.
 
There is absolutely no need for a circuit breaker in the South West, South, South East (expect near SW London) or East (excluding Essex). The Tier 1 restrictions should be good enough to prevent escalation.
No reason for a lockdown at all
 
Last edited:
Cityfan said:
ONS survey is reporting rising levels as well.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. This survey is being delivered in partnership with University of Oxford, University of Manchester, Public Health England and Wellcome Trust.
www.ons.gov.uk
Bit depressing
Click to expand...

It is not a surprise though. Covid was certain to see an escalation over the colder months. We got lucky it arriving here as last Winter ended. How wisely we used that edge is another matter. But now we are at the other end of the luck spectrum as the next six months could show.

Though at least in the Spring and Summer we have learned enough to save thousands of lives that would not be true if we were still at the start of the learning curve.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
✖
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.