I'll be the first to admit that science isn't one of my strongest subjects bud but the one thing I do know is that governmental advice is crap, the last order to come from government bodies was to stay where you are, Grenfel and that didn't end well.
I'm of the opinion that IF this infection is massively bad and has a huge mortality rate, our governments wouldn't let us know in time anyway, they'll be getting all the great and the good away to safety so they would have a chance to see it out. I'm not saying for one minute that I don't believe your advice is sensible and well thought out, what I mean is that you wont be making the decisions if my neighbour starts glowing green and looking at my Cats as food.