COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Tonster

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24 Feb 2009
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Offerton
And the actual number today usually cited - as it is often the highest of the two - the all settings deaths - is 341.

It does fall sometimes when cases are outside the time limit. But either way what really matters is that the rise in deaths is slowing . It will go up for a while yet as sadly this is always the last thing to fall as it is the final link in the chain. But there are reasons to be optimistic even here.
does that mean pubs can open past ten?
Pubs couldn’t open past 10 even in Tier 1
 

Healdplace

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12 May 2013
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5,804
We are in the NW in I think a similar position to London in May.

They got wave 1 first and came out of it when we were still not yet done as there is a fairly set period of peak and fall. But they ended the restrictions nationally because London was getting better and they needed the economy back.

As a result when wave 2 arrived we were a little ahead of the curve as we started from a less suppressed place than the areas hit hardest in the first wave.

So we started to climb in August and had weeks ahead of the rest (it was going to take longer to peak as we were coming out of Summer and that changes the momentum of a pandemic's ability to spread).

Waves have a natural life and the NW is likely to be ahead of the rest in coming out of this second one because of these factors. But the south has largely been protected by coming out of the first wave at a low enough level to buy extra time as the seasons changed. Probably also starting from a base where many had had it already in wave one maximising the tipping point where cases accelerate and delaying things a bit until now.
.
The momentum is clearly shifting with the regions but what happens next is going to depend on what the government do. Will they make regional decisions on easing the lockdown as they said they would come early December.

Or - if by then London and the south is where the NW was in September will they keep lockdown going for all?

Christmas is going to be the big deal as can you see them letting the north have one whilst restricting London more if rates are where the NW was a month or so ago?

Pandemics don't do fairness. They just follow the rules of science. Yet governments can often take decisions that are designed to please the public as opposed to what science strictly requires them to do.

So its anybody's guess where we will be 4 weeks from now.
 

BlueAnorak

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31 Oct 2010
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16,979
There have been campaigns in the past due to the increased flu cases at Christmas. Similar with meningitis for new university students.

There are weekly figures published every year for flu which back it up.
Show me a year where week 52 was worse than week 51 or week 1 of the following year. It has never happened in the UK or US - EVER.
Cases start to ramp up in October then hit accelerator in November and December and reach the peak about the 3rd week in January before declining. But every time week 52 is a temporary 10%-20% drop.
Why will Covid-19 be any different?
 

BlueAnorak

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31 Oct 2010
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16,979
Another set of studies from Dr John that confirms that Zinc reduces levels of Interlukin-6 and reduces the incidence of Cykotine storm.
 

BlueAnorak

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31 Oct 2010
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16,979
Perhaps I should be on SAGE?
Just Echinacea (with it's antival properties) to go on my list of supplements proved to help protect you against Covid-19 to some degree
 
Last edited:

birchwoodgingerste

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7 Apr 2010
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7,901
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sankey bridges warrington
We are in the NW in I think a similar position to London in May.

They got wave 1 first and came out of it when we were still not yet done as there is a fairly set period of peak and fall. But they ended the restrictions nationally because London was getting better and they needed the economy back.

As a result when wave 2 arrived we were a little ahead of the curve as we started from a less suppressed place than the areas hit hardest in the first wave.

So we started to climb in August and had weeks ahead of the rest (it was going to take longer to peak as we were coming out of Summer and that changes the momentum of a pandemic's ability to spread).

Waves have a natural life and the NW is likely to be ahead of the rest in coming out of this second one because of these factors. But the south has largely been protected by coming out of the first wave at a low enough level to buy extra time as the seasons changed. Probably also starting from a base where many had had it already in wave one maximising the tipping point where cases accelerate and delaying things a bit until now.
.
The momentum is clearly shifting with the regions but what happens next is going to depend on what the government do. Will they make regional decisions on easing the lockdown as they said they would come early December.

Or - if by then London and the south is where the NW was in September will they keep lockdown going for all?

Christmas is going to be the big deal as can you see them letting the north have one whilst restricting London more if rates are where the NW was a month or so ago?

Pandemics don't do fairness. They just follow the rules of science. Yet governments can often take decisions that are designed to please the public as opposed to what science strictly requires them to do.

So its anybody's guess where we will be 4 weeks from now.
Tier 3 with tougher restrictions so
Just to confuse everyone again.
Go to work but only if you must and all that bollocks!
 

Corky

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Joined
9 Dec 2005
Messages
16,223
Show me a year where week 52 was worse than week 51 or week 1 of the following year. It has never happened in the UK or US - EVER.
Cases start to ramp up in October then hit accelerator in November and December and reach the peak about the 3rd week in January before declining. But every time week 52 is a temporary 10%-20% drop.
Why will Covid-19 be any different?
Week 51 normally has a spike caused by the lead up to Xmas that is why, 22nd December last year.

Not many people go to the GP in week 52, and 3rd week in Jan can still be due to Xmas holidays, or at least the NHS think so.
 

blue b4 the moon

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Joined
25 Feb 2005
Messages
27,119
Location
315
We are in the NW in I think a similar position to London in May.

They got wave 1 first and came out of it when we were still not yet done as there is a fairly set period of peak and fall. But they ended the restrictions nationally because London was getting better and they needed the economy back.

As a result when wave 2 arrived we were a little ahead of the curve as we started from a less suppressed place than the areas hit hardest in the first wave.

So we started to climb in August and had weeks ahead of the rest (it was going to take longer to peak as we were coming out of Summer and that changes the momentum of a pandemic's ability to spread).

Waves have a natural life and the NW is likely to be ahead of the rest in coming out of this second one because of these factors. But the south has largely been protected by coming out of the first wave at a low enough level to buy extra time as the seasons changed. Probably also starting from a base where many had had it already in wave one maximising the tipping point where cases accelerate and delaying things a bit until now.
.
The momentum is clearly shifting with the regions but what happens next is going to depend on what the government do. Will they make regional decisions on easing the lockdown as they said they would come early December.

Or - if by then London and the south is where the NW was in September will they keep lockdown going for all?

Christmas is going to be the big deal as can you see them letting the north have one whilst restricting London more if rates are where the NW was a month or so ago?

Pandemics don't do fairness. They just follow the rules of science. Yet governments can often take decisions that are designed to please the public as opposed to what science strictly requires them to do.

So its anybody's guess where we will be 4 weeks from now.
Think you've summed it up with whatever is best for London.
 

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