COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[roubaixtuesday]

They've got to be as transparent and honest as they can to ensure that the City reacts accordingly. Give a skewed figure and the share price could jump artificially.

Astrazeneca share price won't depend much on this. It's being done on a not for profit basis, at least in the short term.

3 billion doses planned for next year. :-)

 

[roubaixtuesday]

so realistically, when will a average 30 year old be expected to take the vaccine in the UK

Maybe April/May...?

(Personal speculation only)

 

[twosips]

They've got to be as transparent and honest as they can to ensure that the City reacts accordingly. Give a skewed figure and the share price could jump artificially.

They're as surprised as anyone at the 90% figure so they are tempering expectations whilst dangling this carrot because they have shareholders.

Cheers. So do you think we can scrub the 62% and 70% stuff then?

 

[03 March 2002]

Maybe April/May...?

(Personal speculation only)

I'd wager April-ish too.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I think the idea is that if you give a vaccine directly into the body , the body is not stimulated to produce IgA However if you can get the reproduction in the resp tract by applying it to the nasal mucosa the body is stimulated to produce IgA.
The spray does not apply IgA anywhere, it applies viral vaccine.

That may be right, I hadn't thought of it.

Antibodies are made by white blood cells. It may be that applying the virus on the mucosal surface is enough to provoke IgA production, and have the secretory IgA migrate back out.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

Cheers. So do you think we can scrub the 62% and 70% stuff then?

I'm no scientist but my impression was that it's early days but they are getting 90% efficiency with the double dose (smaller one first) so you'd assume that's how they will ultimately administer.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Cheers. So do you think we can scrub the 62% and 70% stuff then?

They don't know why the low-high is giving that reaction, or how certain it is, which is why it's being quoted as a small-group test outlying set of data.

Working on 62% is likely to be a worst case scenario (still much higher than the flu vaccine).

It's much better to quote low and then update with higher, than the other way round.

 

[03 March 2002]

Cheers. So do you think we can scrub the 62% and 70% stuff then?

No I think after all the data are collected, we will land right in/around the 70% area. It's just about the 'norm' for this type of vaccine and it's enough for what we need.

I'd love to see details of the contracts that the governments have signed with the vaccine producers because I'm afraid to say that I'm 95% sure the current (~100m) doses are earmarked for the US only.

 

[blueparrot]

so realistically, when will a average 30 year old be expected to take the vaccine in the UK

The 10 groups go down to over 50s,so those under 50 with no health conditions will be after.I know the target for the 10 groups if it starts in December is end of March, which may slip a bit.I would guess it will then go to 18-50 year old after that.Would think April to June sometime. The vacination program and infrastructure should be established and pretty slick by then

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Cheers. So do you think we can scrub the 62% and 70% stuff then?

70% is the overall average for everyone dosed in the trial.

62% is for the subpopulation given the higher dose. The confidence interval for that group was quoted as 54-80% ie its 95% likely that efficacy is in that range forv that subgroup.

90% is for the subpopulation given the lower dose. No confidence interval is quoted, maybe because the numbers are so small (likely as low as two cases on the active arm). It's likely the confidence intervals overlap.

So if you want to fix a figure in your mind, I'd suggest 70%. That's the most robust number here.

However, the real point IMV is that the exact number doesn't matter. All of these numbers are good enough to end the pandemic. And that's the real take home: we have a good enough vaccine and sufficient manufacturing capacity to deliver it. Everything else is detail.