COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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It is very heartening to do that, yes, thank you. But I will only ever post the news. Trying not to spin it. As it can change just as easily in the other direction unfortunately.

There are plenty of people out there happy to spin the data for whatever reason. I try to stay neutral as I understand this can go either way from day to day and events often get in the way of optimism. Politicians also face a near impossible challenge weaving a path through this mess and nobody will get everything right.

But hope is helpful to me over recent days as someone I know died over the weekend after testing positive and spending a month in hospital unable to be visited even by family until the very end.

She had caught it after two younger people she lived with both got infected (nobody knows where) but they brushed it off fairly quickly. Though one of them was quite ill at home despite being young. They had to self isolate and stay off work a second time after she (presumably) caught it from them even though her positive test was in the final days of their own isolation after catching it themselves.

Sadly she (the mum of one of the two younger people) finally got home after a month in hospital last week for only two days after they took ages to create a 'care package' she never actually needed. She was on a little oxygen for just a day or so in hospital right at the start but recovered from Covid and a week later tested negative and was seemingly clear of it for about 3 weeks but was kept on a Covid ward waiting to go home. Still unable to see her family.

I thought this was what the Nightingale hospitals were built to avoid having to do - especially as this was during the period we were told NW hospitals were in danger of being overrun and indeed had just exceeded the numbers with Covid that they had in there during April. Though happily they have come down since.

So this lady did not literally die of Covid but nobody will know if it was a reason why she died and she may well become another person who 'did' within the numbers today. Meaning the true lives lost either WITH or BECAUSE OF Covid will never be known as it is just impossible to be sure in so many cases like this.

I suspect before this is over the majority of us will know someone who has become a victim and it does bring home to you the real tragedy that is unfolding around us and easier to get frustrated in a selfish way about its impact on you until that day comes and you really see how bad this disease can be.

So - yes - I am glad of any good news I can report. But mindful that this can change in the blink of an eye unless and until we get a real solution such as a working vaccine that in real life not the lab tests suppresses this to a level we can live through with a degree of normality.

Hopefully to be better prepared the next time something like this happens. As it will happen again and nobody knows when.

As Kaz and others say on here often - I post statistics but these numbers are more than that. They are people and lives and every tragedy ripples across families and becomes an emotional bombshell for many.

You do not need to confront this head on to understand that. But for those who just want to go to the pub or watch City play and not face yet more imposed restrictions I get that frustration entirely. Especially as livelihoods are at stake too - not just lives. As the collapse of Debenhams and thousands of jobs today shows.

But I just hope that those who feel this way do not have to lose someone they know first before the seriousness of this disease and the reason why hard things need to be asked of us all gets through to them.
Stay strong, horrible stuff.
 
Great idea.
and get retired nurses etc (vaccinate them first obviously) to administer. Conveyer belt.

im sure someone will tell us why not ?

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this before but on a local level for vaccinating they still have to maintain social distancing and so on and when you have had your jab you have to wait 15 mins before you can leave.

My trial nurses were saying that as a result most doctors surgeries are not equipped to get loads in an out, so the thought is bigger venues need to be found, in this area for example Nantwich Town FC or similar. It does seem that they are going to be getting just about anyone who can wield a syringe on the job as my next trial appointment on the 14th December maybe binned as the girls will be busy injecting. Certainly they expect to be involved in the new year when it really gets going.

I told them if they need a practise arm to call me at once.
 
Weekly deaths update. I was hoping this weeks would start to show a drop but afraid not.

2,155 the week ending 20th Nov compared to 1,904 the week ending the 13th.
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The ONS death figures are encouraging as they match what we have been seeing from the England hospital death numbers day to day (as the biggest single number every day it is the most helpful to track).

Whilst still going up the size of the increase has slowed. That is what is happening with the hospital deaths and as we know this is always going to be the last thing to change unfortunately.

The ONS rise of 9% this week is the lowest since early September. That matches closely where we are with the GM cases data which suggests a real peaking of the second wave might be happening.

Though as we relax rules over the coming weeks does not mean a third wave will not start to build. Especially as this second one is still building in some areas - notably to the south of the country which up to now has escaped relatively well whilst the north and midlands has escalated and peaked.
 
i am certain im completely over simplifying this but if (if) the vaccine is fridge storage only, then cant it just be administered anywhere, like they do with flu jabs when they go to schools etc etc. Just hyper-localised mass vaccination, very similar to election day. Dunno. i'll have missed something massive no doubt.
Covid vaccinations in primary schools?
Hmmm...
 
According to Imperial College data the lockdown impacted different areas in different ways but reduced numbers everywhere.

The change from start to finish (or rather a few days ago as the reported data always lags) shows that in week ending 2 Nov versus week ending 24 Nov the weekly pop for the entire region (ie cases per 100,000 population over the whole area - with rural areas obviously lower numbers than urban ones) fell:-

The SW from a Pop of 88 to 62

The SE from 84 to 72.

London from 103 to 98.

Eastern England from 74 to 57

East Midlands from 131 to 127

West Midlands from 156 to 155

Yorkshire from 180 to 117

North East from 188 to 72


And North West from 253 to 108.


These numbers will have changed over the past 7 days and I suspect by now London and the NW may well be very close to being equal. If not NW below London. As the gap fell from 150 to 10 in the first three weeks.

You can clearly see that the NW responded the most and fell the furthest and also that it had minimal impact down south but they were at a low base so likely to be at risk from tomorrow of the biggest rise being largely not in tier 3.

Also how minimally the Midlands came down during the restrictions and why the NW has been the success story of the recent lock down along with the NE.

Hopefully someone is trying to work out why.
 
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