COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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The west or residents of the west are maybe be too jovial about this virus. Many of you will have seen the youtube video of people shouting to each other from inside apartment building but when you realise its because theyre welded in to their building and cant get out. In most parts of China outside of Hebei province one family member is allowed out twice a week for supplys. I speak to people from China everyday and my info is from them. I dont believe any of the figures and i believe 98% of people will live but 2% will die unless they find an antivirus. Mutation is not always bad but it will re infect people. Up to 14% of cases are reinfections. If its that bad that hit squads are going door to door removing infected people its not your normal flu.
 
Firstly unreserved apologies for putting any links to this rag on here, but unfortunately they seem to have the exclusive interview with Roubini the economic guru who called the 2008 housing bubble/financial crisis and the impact of Interesting read but fuck I hope his predictions are wrong ( apart from trump loosing the next election) or we are all buggered....mind you he’s always fairly negative

https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...saster-a-e811cf3b-d495-4c52-bf79-d872c8f164ac
 
The west or residents of the west are maybe be too jovial about this virus. Many of you will have seen the youtube video of people shouting to each other from inside apartment building but when you realise its because theyre welded in to their building and cant get out. In most parts of China outside of Hebei province one family member is allowed out twice a week for supplys. I speak to people from China everyday and my info is from them. I dont believe any of the figures and i believe 98% of people will live but 2% will die unless they find an antivirus. Mutation is not always bad but it will re infect people. Up to 14% of cases are reinfections. If its that bad that hit squads are going door to door removing infected people its not your normal flu.
welded?
 
Firstly unreserved apologies for putting any links to this rag on here, but unfortunately they seem to have the exclusive interview with Roubini the economic guru who called the 2008 housing bubble/financial crisis and the impact of Interesting read but fuck I hope his predictions are wrong ( apart from trump loosing the next election) or we are all buggered....mind you he’s always fairly negative

https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...saster-a-e811cf3b-d495-4c52-bf79-d872c8f164ac
I’ll take your word for it. Trying not to slit my wrists as it is anyway.
 
I saw it in a video and a guy from hong kong confirmed that authorities are welding doors shut to keep them under control. In fact a chinese pharmacist did not deny it in conversation today. In one part of the video a woman can be heard screaming from the opposite building that her mother is dying and she cant get out. Its disturbing to say the least
 
Firstly unreserved apologies for putting any links to this rag on here, but unfortunately they seem to have the exclusive interview with Roubini the economic guru who called the 2008 housing bubble/financial crisis and the impact of Interesting read but fuck I hope his predictions are wrong ( apart from trump loosing the next election) or we are all buggered....mind you he’s always fairly negative

https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...saster-a-e811cf3b-d495-4c52-bf79-d872c8f164ac
I have read the interview, as well, but to be fair, several of us have been making similar predictions for a few months now. I am an economist, but it didn’t require being one to see where things were going even before the coronavirus outbreak and market reaction.

As I have said elsewhere, the current situation is just hastening the march to the envitable.
 
I have read the interview, as well, but to be fair, several of us have been making similar predictions for a few months now. I am an economist, but it didn’t require being one to see where things were going even before the coronavirus outbreak and market reaction.

As I have said elsewhere, the current situation is just hastening the march to the envitable.

you’d been predicting a 30-40% drop in equity markets based on a slow down in growth? Not an economist myself but I thought those numbers normally proceeded a black swan event in that time frame?
 
you’d been predicting a 30-40% drop in equity markets based on a slow down in growth? Not an economist myself but I thought those numbers normally proceeded a black swan event in that time frame?
I haven’t been predicting such a violent descent, as those are indeed usually based on black swan events, but I and a few others have been predicting a convulsion that would expose inherent market frailties that would rather quickly lead to a destructive downturn much worse than even 2008.

The current market reaction is just a more violent, expedited version of those predictions from Roubini, myself, and others, which was my point. You very rarely can correctly predict the actual instigator and timing of such turns, but if you know what to look for, you can predict the general framework, flow, and timeframe of them once they start.

The market indicators have been worrying for quite sometime — well before the coronavirus crisis came along — but have been generally ignored by most outside of economic analysts (and insiders looking to profit from the upcoming crash) due to various artificial market manipulation/propping, absolutely mad investment actions, and truly insane fiscal policy from some of the major economic drivers after (primarily) Trump’s election and Brexit.

The world economy has been teetering on the edge of oblivion for some time.
 
I haven’t been predicting such a violent descent, as those are indeed usually based on black swan events, but I and a few others have been predicting a convulsion that would expose inherent market frailties that would rather quickly lead to a destructive downturn much worse than even 2008.
Just for the uninitiated like myself, what's a black swan event?
 
Just for the uninitiated like myself, what's a black swan event?
Lifting this from Investopedia as it is just more efficient. :-)

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.
 
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