COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Gelsons Dad said:
The thing is, they didn't fuck up. It's the same model with more up to date data.
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They DID fuck up. They were called publicly on the suspicion they had not used the data that was available from countries using THIS virus. You're literally CHOOSING to believe it's only just become available. Even without actual datasets, they more than enough to go on to realise that Pneumonial infection was a bigger problem with COVID than with Influenza A/B. It was literally THE take away from all the early reports from those treating the fucking virus. Some really key factors were EMPIRICALLY demonstrated beyond any doubt, not in data charts, but in the medical reports. We KNEW it was harder on the respiratory symptom. We KNEW that treatment would not be the same as for Flu Viral Pneumonia. I mean, for chrissakes, they pump Influenza a/b / H5N1 sufferers who get viral pneumonia full of tamiflu, which is 99% effective against those viruses but not at all effective against COVID 19. All the stories from those treating the virus had exactly the same flavour, and it was all about the terrible effects and challenge of treating THIS form of viral pneumonia.

They are not talking about not NEW data. They are talking about how the data changes when you reset that one value, that one factor at the heart of this model - the actual reality of treating this virus.

But because the behaviouralist modelling seemingly produced their work separately from these sorts of voices, it left in that.

This isn't worth arguing. They got called. They got called on the suspicion that something very similair to this was happening, in the last week, since the moment the briefing was given. They were called dozens of times, by so many Senior Academics, Professors, heads of schools, countless other very senior experts in all the field, in so many letters, articles, tweets and threads - that I stopped posting them.

They were CALLED openly, by people who needed to see their hand, because the bet looked all wrong. And whadya know, they'd misread the deck.
 
twosips said:
Yeah that's what i feared :(
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I wonder whether the 18 month timeframe includes the time it takes to make it available for all? Producing and distributing a vaccine for the entire globe is surely going to take a long time. I don’t know if the 18 months estimate factors that in, or if that’s just when some lucky sods get the first batch.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Yes. Absolutely. I’m not trying to give it the big one btw. I don’t need to. I’m confident enough in my self not to feel the need to lie about something like that. I’ve got plenty if predictions spectacularly wrong btw.

Assumed everyone thought the same. The interconnected world we lived in saw to it, surely.
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To be honest then mate if you've got a lot of predictions wrong, its not that clever if and when one comes right to say "everyone saw it coming".

Cos you would have said that if any of you other incorrect predictions had happened.

Which they didn't.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Not necessarily.
- A vaccine can be developed quickly (by November)
- The production of ventilators may deliver quickly.
- The possible Chloroquine anti malarial drug + LapinavirRitonavir treatment may well actually dramatically reduce mortality.
- The UK could use medical Ozone and Ozone Therapy as Germany does to help fight viral pnumonia.
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Yes it all hinges on a breakthrough happening sooner rather than later.

I'm not an engineering expert but in the second world war factories were commandeered to build weapons, can't they do that now to build ventilators? That tosser Richard Branson just launched a brand new cruise ship last week in Dover. These could be placed in ports and used as hospital ships to ease the pressure. It happened in the Falklands war. They need to be moving fast now.
 
For me, the cause of the spread is unrestricted air travel for so long. People showing any symptoms should not have been allowed to travel and as soon as a country had 10 cases. AIr travel from that country should have resulted in a 2 week mandatory isolation for all passengers from that country. 40 cases and air travel ceases except rescue flights.
Tawain had it spot on. They made sure lock down was followed and tested each locked down individuals known local contacts too.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Not necessarily.
- A vaccine can be developed quickly (by November)
- The production of ventilators may deliver quickly.
- The possible Chloroquine anti malarial drug + LapinavirRitonavir treatment may well actually dramatically reduce mortality.
- The UK could use medical Ozone and Ozone Therapy as Germany does to help fight viral pnumonia.
Click to expand...


How can it be ready by November if the first person undergoing trials for it now has to be monitored for 14 months?
 
BlueAnorak said:
For me, the cause of the spread is unrestricted air travel for so long. People showing any symptoms should not have been allowed to travel and as soon as a country had 10 cases. AIr travel from that country should have resulted in a 2 week mandatory isolation for all passengers from that country. 40 cases and air travel ceases except rescue flights.
Tawain had it spot on. They made sure lock down was followed and tested each locked down individuals known local contacts too.
Click to expand...

Yes I thought it was crazy everyone was just allowed in from infected countries. People were even being interviewed and they were just asked basic questions they could have lied to and waved through. Insanity.
 
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