COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Dicko69]

Quick question. Does anyone here who goes out for groceries or just for a walk wear masks? I just went out for a walk in a park without any masks. I won't lie I am a bit worried about it now.

I've taken to wearing a balaclava

 

[BosnianBlue]

Easter coming in very bad time. The virus is slowing a bit and people will feel it might not be too serious if they lose a bit of cautiousness during Easter weekend. Great weather is not helping too. I am afraid we might see another surge in cases and deaths in week or two time after Easter in the.

 

[kippaxwarrior]

Had a chat with by brother yesterday and he lives I Moston.

For those people who know the area there is a kids play area on Attleboro Road and on the corner of Oscar st and he said over the last few days that area is just full not of kids but entire families who are smoking and drinking with music blasting out.

The police go round and dispurse them but around an hour later they are back out doing exactly the same thing.

What is wrong with some people?

 

[SilverFox2]

The “total deaths” graph is relatively accurate up to any date and shows trends.

Daily death graphs are woefully inaccurate when only 117 of 866 reported deaths actually occurred on one date.

So if there is inaccuracy is there no way to mathematically compensate for what is effectively a too short and possibly therefore not fit for purpose indicator?

In short why use it if a weekly one is more accurate or even a cumulative weekly subtotal divided by 7 which is then adjusted to the grand total each week?

 

[ballinio]

Had a chat with by brother yesterday and he lives I Moston.

For those people who know the area there is a kids play area on Attleboro Road and on the corner of Oscar st and he said over the last few days that area is just full not of kids but entire families who are smoking and drinking with music blasting out.

The police go round and dispurse them but around an hour later they are back out doing exactly the same thing.

What is wrong with some people?

The country is full of thick selfish cunts , we’re just noticing em more. Water cannon or rubber bullets would help.

 

[i8rags]

Why is there too much milk? Do we drink more latte at work than at home?

Farmers pouring thousands of litres away.

Saw a report yesterday I think, no milk trucks picking up due to shortage of drivers

 

[Chippy_boy]

The “total deaths” graph is relatively accurate up to any date and shows trends.

Daily death graphs are woefully inaccurate when only 117 of 866 reported deaths actually occurred on one date.

Where did you get this 117 figure from? It seems staggeringly unlikely to me that at a time when the daily death toll is running on average in the 700+ range, on one day it should be as low as 117. Do you know why? Or is the 117 significant undercounting avd the actual figure is somewhere in between perhaps? Just seems spuriously low.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Saw a report yesterday I think, no milk trucks picking up due to shortage of drivers

Tragic. What a bloody waste!

 

[Chippy_boy]

So if there is inaccuracy is there no way to mathematically compensate for what is effectively a too short and possibly therefore not fit for purpose indicator?

In short why use it if a weekly one is more accurate or even a cumulative weekly subtotal divided by 7 which is then adjusted to the grand total each week?

7-day moving average would be useful. I'll update a chart with that on it. (I know you all like charts!)

 

[SWP's back]

Where did you get this 117 figure from? It seems staggeringly unlikely to me that at a time when the daily death toll is running on average in the 700+ range, on one day it should be as low as 117. Do you know why? Or is the 117 significant undercounting avd the actual figure is somewhere in between perhaps? Just seems spuriously low.

BBC, ITV, Telegraph.

“ 'Of the new deaths announced in England today, 117 occurred on 9 April, 720 between 1 April and 8 April, and 29 in March.' ”

 

[Claytop]

Where did you get this 117 figure from? It seems staggeringly unlikely to me that at a time when the daily death toll is running on average in the 700+ range, on one day it should be as low as 117. Do you know why? Or is the 117 significant undercounting avd the actual figure is somewhere in between perhaps? Just seems spuriously low.

117 was the amount they had recorded upto publishing yesterday’s update. There will be more but that’s all they had managed to record upto the update.

If you check the NHS England Covid stats sheets that have been posted on here you can get all the relevant daily and total numbers and how they change.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

 

[Chippy_boy]

117 was the amount they had recorded upto publishing yesterday’s update. There will be more but that’s all they had managed to record upto the update.

If you check the NHS England Covid stats sheets that have been posted on here you can get all the relevant daily and total numbers and how they change.

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Thanks!

 

[kippax4ever]

Just lit the bbq on the beach and some bloke in a united shirt has called us a bunch of feral cunts and said he was going to post a picture of us on something called bluemoon forum fuck knows what he was on about but he said he was heading back to Manchester

Fking bollocks,now if you said he heading back to London,I would believe you..

 

[Coatigan]

That depends on whether the view of a scientific adviser to the Home Office is an opinion, or a policy.

"You are no more at risk at the workplace as you would be in your home or at the supermarket. It is about minimising it," he said.

"We are working on the assessment that 80% of us, if we haven't already, will get the virus."

He added: "We cannot hide away from it forever."

This echoed previous government briefings that up to 80% of people would eventually contract Covid-19 and that this would help the population develop "herd immunity".

Do you think there is any practical way of ensuring less than 80% end up getting it, eventually?

 

[blueparrot]

Thanks!

It took my a while to understand the table and graph Gelson has been posting, but what his table does is take the daily figure but allocate each death to the correct day and only 117 of yesterdays figure were allocated to that day as we go forward when deaths are allocated they will add to the 117, so the more recent the date the more volatile it’s figure will be
It’s this sort of processed data that will be used by government to judge trend and effectiveness of restrictions , not the raw data of daily figures we see.
Once understood the @Gelsons Dad table is really useful.

 

[blueparrot]

Do you think there is any practical way of ensuring less than 80% end up getting it, eventually?

Think the only thing that reduces that number is slowing infection until we get a vaccine. How slow depends what we measures we think the economy and the public will allow, and for how long.

 

[Chippy_boy]

It took my a while to understand the table and graph Gelson has been posting, but what his table does is take the daily figure but allocate each death to the correct day and only 117 of yesterdays figure were allocated to that day as we go forward when deaths are allocated they will add to the 117, so the more recent the date the more volatile it’s figure will be
It’s this sort of processed data that will be used by government to judge trend and effectiveness of restrictions , not the raw data of daily figures we see.
Once understood the @Gelsons Dad table is really useful.

Thanks also. I haven't seen Gelson's table - I will try to find it and take a look.

 

[kippax4ever]

Had to smile at this report in the Guardian

French police turn back private jet of holidaymakers from UK
...The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25, were refused permission to enter France and ordered by police to fly back to the UK...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...urn-back-private-jet-of-holidaymakers-from-uk

Well trying to impress the young ladies,
Went tits up big time..fking rich pricks

 

[Chippy_boy]

Think the only thing that reduces that number is slowing infection until we get a vaccine. How slow depends what we measures we think the economy and the public will allow, and for how long.

Worth bearing in mind that South Korea had a worse start than us, much worse, and so far have had 208 deaths. So it shows what is possible with the right disciplines in place.

(I mention them in particular since they are quite comparable to us. Similar population size, similar country size (area) and similar average age.)

If we can get this under control, it is entirely feasible to keep it under control.

 

[Coatigan]

Think the only thing that reduces that number is slowing infection until we get a vaccine. How slow depends what we measures we think the economy and the public will allow, and for how long.

Totally agree. How slow, and how Long for, i would add. Even then, will that ensure this claimed 80% will not happen eventually? it is so widespread and present just now, globally, that any slowing of it is purely buying time, at a cost yet to be determined. the best we can hope for is a little bit of help with the weather holding, people being sensible and following measurea to limit the spread, and speedy vaccine diacovery production and distribution. Withouth society and economy collapsing in the meantime.