But then why didn't the numbers explode in Feb? We saw a 100x increase in deaths between mid and end of March - in circa 2 weeks. That's what happens with exponential growth when numbers are doubling every three or four days, as they were.
So if we had 100 die in Jan, we'd have seen 10,000 dead by mid Feb and 100,000 by end of Feb (without a lockdown in Feb). i.e. there cannot have been 10,000 infected in Jan. Widespread infection in Jan is not possible.
There were no excess deaths until the last week of March, the 1st 10 weeks of the year registered over 4000 less deaths than average.
Flu season is the 1st couple of weeks of Jan.
https://forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk/threads/covid-19-—-coronavirus.344314/page-3832#post-12635839
Update on point 2:
The risk of catching Covid is 30 times higher at 1 metre apart rather than 2 meters apart. For example the following risks are equivalent:
- Two metres apart for 1 minute; AND
- One metre apart for 6 SECONDS.
Public transport can't be restarted without people wearing face masks and really when you go shopping you should wear one too.
Doesn’t that make it 10x higher?
How do we know the doubling time was 3 days?
The more you ramp up testing the more it would appear the virus is doubling.
Example
1st day of testing 1000 tests 10 infected
7th day of testing 2000 tests 40 infected
The figures would have you believe the virus has doubled every 3 days..... in reality if 1000 tests had been carried on day 7 u may only have found 20 people infected, giving a doubling rate of 6 days
Sure, why wouldn't I? I've no idea whether we are having a bad flu season, but if we are then those numbers will be in there. What of it?so when we do excess deaths comparison then you accept that the excess might not all be due to Covid but coincidentally this bad flu season as well ?
Deaths were doubling every 3 or 4 days. I didn't say anything about infections. I countered the suggestion that perhaps we had 100 dead in Jan with the comment that we'd have had 10,000 dead by mid Feb. We didn't. Ergo, we didn't have 100 COVID deaths in Jan. Not possible.How do we know the doubling time was 3 days?
The more you ramp up testing the more it would appear the virus is doubling.
Example
1st day of testing 1000 tests 10 infected
7th day of testing 2000 tests 40 infected
The figures would have you believe the virus has doubled every 3 days..... in reality if 1000 tests had been carried on day 7 u may only have found 20 people infected, giving a doubling rate of 6 days
I'm only quoting what Sir Patrick Vallence said.
In my head, to be 30 times higher the 2nd calculation should be 1 meter for FOUR seconds 2×60/(1×4) = 30.
so when we do excess deaths comparison then you accept that the excess might not all be due to Covid but coincidentally this bad flu season as well ?