COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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What are you on about? Of course it's serious how am I jovial? I know I'd rather remain positive than sit in my house convincing myself everyones going to die. Fact of the matter almost every single prediction about how bad this was going to be and how millions in the UK would die was wrong. Barely anyone is dying because of it what is there not to be optimistic about.
Are you referring to the predictions based upon no mitigation measures?
 
Yesterdays 1129 were from 184,444 tests (167, 983 were pillar 1 & 2 from which new cases derive)

Todays much higher number from even fewer at 169, 857 tests ( and just 159, 433 of the key pillar 1 & 2 today)

So no excuses for today's number. It is really concerning.

I get your point but it's only concerning if some of those people become seriously unwell, otherwise it's just people getting a virus. 300 got it in one factory, even though it's up it is a tiny percentage of the population and unless it starts doubling every day again nothing to worry about. The testing is being done in specific areas as well with the pop up tents so naturally it will be higher.
 
You understand the case mortality rate is not the only measure of the impact of the virus, right?

And even that, which is a poor measure of the public health (and economic) impact of any disease, is significantly lower than it otherwise would be due the measures taken, however flawed, to reduce the rate of transmission and thus the case rate?

Also, I think it is important to point out that public health is *not* separate from the economy. They are irrevocably intertwined.

Allowing the virus to run rampant, with little-to-no mitigation would have caused economic destruction, as well.

There is plenty of current and historical evidence to show this to be true. As well as strong evidence that communities that took immediate, drastic, but science-based action to reduce transmission of diseases and mitigate economic impact recovered much faster than communities that took little-to-no action to reduce impacts to public health for fear of the economic impacts.
Yes I am aware of that but considering there has been little or no increase at all of death rates, considering there has with infections, shows that the virus isn’t damaging those who have had it anywhere near like it did in April/May.

I am not suggesting we allow it to run rampant, where have I said so?

Social distancing must continue into next year, face mask use etc.

What we shouldn’t do it is stop children being educated and ruin further lives by not opening the more of the economy, when the virus is killing fewer people than the flu... and many many other things.

It’s absolutely ludicrous to suggest otherwise.
 
Are you referring to the predictions based upon no mitigation measures?

Yes to be fair mainly those, but a lot were predicting we would be well on the way to a 2nd wave by now. Also the claims the mortality rate was 3.5% etc. I appreciate they have to err on the side of caution but they have been well out on most things.
 
No you haven’t at all.

Do you want to indefinitely suspend the education of the next generation and parts of the economy, until the virus no longer is present in this country?

You didn't ask me that question,

Education can be done from home. needs sorting but can be done, Singapore's entire school curriculum ran uneffected within reason, they just did it via online learning. the fact that some schools didn't do this is a failure on the education system that is 100% addressable.

As for economy, doing what we are doing now is about right. slow opening and lockdowns to prevent outbreaks. without that step you get uncontrolled growth like in the states.
 
In yesterday's Houdini number there were 1059 England, 8 N. Ireland, 47 Scotland, 15 Wales

IN today's there were 1284 England, 74 N Ireland, 65 Scotland and 18 Wales.

These are indicative of big rises even in unexpected locations. The N Ireland situation is particularly concerning as we have all but been able to ignore it for months as it was at minute levels.

Not any more.
 
You understand the case mortality rate is not the only measure of the impact of the virus, right?

And even that, which is a poor measure of the public health (and economic) impact of any disease, is significantly lower than it otherwise would be due the measures taken, however flawed, to reduce the rate of transmission and thus the case rate?

Also, I think it is important to point out that public health is *not* separate from the economy. They are irrevocably intertwined.

Allowing the virus to run rampant, with little-to-no mitigation would have caused economic destruction, as well.

There is plenty of current and historical evidence to show this to be true. As well as strong evidence that communities that took immediate, drastic, but science-based action to reduce transmission of diseases and mitigate economic impact recovered much faster than communities that took little-to-no action to reduce impacts to public health for fear of the economic impacts.

We will never know as that is the path we took, but a lot of experts say that lockdown had little impact and that we had already peaked in terms of numbers infected. I know it has been done to death but look at Sweden then compare that to a country that locked down hard and early in Spain who are now getting more cases.

I would be keen to see the evidence you mentioned relating to covid and the economic recovery being better in the places that locked down hard and fast.
 
I get your point but it's only concerning if some of those people become seriously unwell, otherwise it's just people getting a virus. 300 got it in one factory, even though it's up it is a tiny percentage of the population and unless it starts doubling every day again nothing to worry about. The testing is being done in specific areas as well with the pop up tents so naturally it will be higher.


I see that mitigation and I hope this continues to be true. But we cannot just assume this will continue to be true. Especially in GM. The consequence of full lockdown imposed here and not in other UK regions would be disastrous for the local economy but this time next week might be a reality if we do not actively find a way to get these numbers down. I think that is what GM council were implying today.
 
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