COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Mon Autre]

There are house parties going on all the time. The people who live behind my house in the next street hold parties regularly. The raves and protests were outside where it is harder to transfer the virus but they may have slowed the reduction in the prevalence of the virus.

Yes, I haven’t seen may young people in pubs apart from the bar staff. The pubs I have been in insist on social distancing but clearly that isn’t the case in other areas.

Yeah the pubs are a real mixed bag. I've seen a couple where it's managed really strictly and then some where there are no measures at all really.

As for parties. Of course I know they are happening. I just dispute the idea that the number of people flagrantly disregarding the rules outweighs those being exposed to the virus through travelling to and from work.

I just don't think it helps any of us to characterise young people in this way. Because the more we fixate on parties and raves, the less attention we pay to other factors which will need serious consideration if we want to keep the economy open.

 

[Blue Maverick]

Just seen in SKY news a company has a made a 20 second test, it’s a game changer if you can buy shares in this it will be worth a fortune, until the Chinese get it and copy it.

 

[ganganvince]

It was the working population, in particular in textile factories, who were disproportionately affected by that spike, not young people partying.

Don't know if you watched the brief yesterday or if stats convince you but here we go the slides from yesterday. The young are the major spreaders.

Slides to accompany coronavirus press conference: 9 September 2020

Slides on coronavirus.

www.gov.uk

 

[Mon Autre]

you realise the incubation time for the covid19 virus is up to 2 weeks
the uptick in cases started in the first week in june, indicating increased infections were from contacts in mid may.

I do not doubt the increase is partly driven by the opening of the economy, but is also partly driven by mass protests and illegal raves and house parties.

Please also consider that in the early raves and house parties there would have been a low infection rate but that would have increased exponentially in the later raves and house parties, because people that attend multiple events.
For example at rave number one a single asymptomatic carrier infects 10 people.
At rave number two half (5) of those infected people attend again and infect 10 more people each (thats 50 people)
At rave number three half (25) of those infected attend and infect 10 more people each (thats 250 people)
and on and on and on.

I do realise it's up to 2 weeks. Around 5 days on average though.

 

[Mon Autre]

Don't know if you watched the brief yesterday or if stats convince you but here we go the slides from yesterday. The young are the major spreaders.

I haven't disputed that young people are catching it and spreading it more. I'm disputing the reasons behind it.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

I remember back in the 80s when AIDS hit and there was a huge, scary advertising campaign with an iceberg saying "use a condom". I also remember the "Heroin SCrews You Up" campaign.

Why are the government not targeting the young with a similar, big money, scary campaign? Is it because they want the young to fast track herd immunity?

 

[pirate]

I do realise it's up to 2 weeks. Around 5 days on average though.

so the end of may then
and the rest of the arguments?

 

[moz]

Pretty sure boris got the name wrong on operation moonshot

Should be operation bullshit

 

[pirate]

I remember back in the 80s when AIDS hit and there was a huge, scary advertising campaign with an iceberg saying "use a condom". I also remember the "Heroin SCrews You Up" campaign.

Why are the government not targeting the young with a similar, big money, scary campaign? Is it because they want the young to fast track herd immunity?

hopefully not
herd immunity is not guaranteed, if it was then we would develop a herd immunity for all widespread viruses including the common cold.
The factors that affect the development of herd immunity are many, but a really important one is the rate of mutation of a virus and we dont have enough data to make the assessment for COVID19.

 

[Mon Autre]

so the end of may then
and the rest of the arguments?

so the end of may then
and the rest of the arguments?

I think you're wrong to think that current spike in young people, in September, is mainly linked to some parties at the end of May. We'd be at much bigger numbers now if that had been a significant driver.

As I've said, there are many reasons why and how young people are in situations making them more at risk of infection. Blaming their social activities and ignoring the economic ones is an easy way out. Especially for the govenrnment who are in desperate need of a scapegoat right now. Personally I think we need to be demanding more of the people in charge right now.

I'll probably duck out of this conversation now as I've done a lot of posts on it this morning and I've covered everything I think about it I think!