COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Didsbury Dave]

hopefully not
herd immunity is not guaranteed, if it was then we would develop a herd immunity for all widespread viruses including the common cold.
The factors that affect the development of herd immunity are many, but a really important one is the rate of mutation of a virus and we dont have enough data to make the assessment for COVID19.

I agree, mate. In which casem, why the hell are they not hammering the UK with scary, simple adverts? I really fucking hope it's not because of all the cash they've spunked on those ridiculous cheery and dishonest Brexit adverts. I honestly wouldn't be surprised.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Just seen in SKY news a company has a made a 20 second test, it’s a game changer if you can buy shares in this it will be worth a fortune, until the Chinese get it and copy it.

Not ready at the moment, it seems.

(from the Sun)
The new Virolens test, which provides results in 20 seconds, launched on Wednesday following a three-week trial at Heathrow Airport.

The test has been developed by British start-up company iAbra and is about to embark on clinical trials in order for it to be certified for medical use.

Having said that, it appears that it has initially looked pretty good, but doesn't seem likely to be very useable outside major centres - iAbra are cited in the FT as saying c. $20,000 for the machine ("several hundred tests a day", and each kit is "the price of a paperback". That's a high cost, but may be something airports could use.

 

[ganganvince]

in the 3 months 28 May to 26 August, in England, 73,553 people test positive for coronavirus (by specimen date);

36,591 (49.7%) were 0 - 39 [2.28m tests @ 1.6% +ve]
36,792 (50%) were 40+ [2.52m tests @ 1.5% +ve]

(unsure on the small totalling error)

sadly this data is released in batches i think, and this only goes to 26 August. I do think this will now be shifting more towards those < 40 and we will see that in a further release i predict. But to claim it's all 20 year olds at parties is disingenuous.

Demographic data for coronavirus (COVID-19) testing (England): 28 May to 26 August

www.gov.uk

For that to be useful also need the split of people tested aswell as positive.

 

[bluetonium]

I've tried to keep any political views out of this thread - I know there is another specific place for that - and I have no specific political alliegences to any party or individual, indeed my view before this week was very much any government would struggle under this crisis.

But watching Boris' press conference last night made me actually.. angry. Very angry. I've had first hand experience of the testing system with my little one this past week, its a mess and they did not address that at all. Rule of 6, moonsling, it's all just confusing and stupid.

I'm genuinely now angry about the govt response. On Sunday we rang for a test for our little one, were told the system is down so the nearest place selectable was 65 miles away and we were expected to go there with an infant with a 39.3C temperature. She wasn't getting better so the hospital could have considered putting her on the Covid ward anyway whilst we waited for the test result to come back. She was negative, but came very close to being put on a Covid ward, increasing her chanses of catching Covid when she was already suffering with another virus. A critical situation could have happened all because of the mess and delays over testing, yet they still are not addressing it, instead pointing to 'how far we have come' and so on. I'd nut the bastard right now if I saw him.

As of yesterday it still wan't fixed, yet the testing stations themselves are quiet because nobody can book a bloody place. Then they've only just thought to expand lab testing capacity it seems, because they are aiming for half a million tests a week says Boris confidently, before Mr Whitty distances himself from it and calls it pretty much too ambitious.

We can meet up to 5 strangers from other bubbles, but existing bubbles of households are now not allowed if more than 6? Does that actualy help things or create the potential for more spread? Are bubbles disbanded? Its like they fire off these unclear mumbled statments and then a few days later they are interpreted and put out there for the public, by which time a section of the public decides they won't be following it anyway, and those that do are forced to hide away again in fear.

Cases are rising, we have to protect. I understand and agree. But we have already started down this road of restarting business, the economy and normal life - indeed it was the government themselves who started this eat out to help out scheme (with bookings under this scheme taken up 60-70% by younger age groups it seems according to some reports), reopening pubs, encouraging a return to work, and they have created a situation where parts of the population just don't understand the rules anymore, and another part just don't care.

I refuse to be a total doom monger, and I am absolutely not looking to debate political alliegences, just commentating on the rules and guidleines and the general sitaution I see before me and how they make me feel, but I am hugely disappointed with the repeated failure of those at the top to guide and effectively comminicate to its public the rules, to address certain issues like testing which have been a priorty for months, and to enforce those rules fairly but firmly. A catchphrase is not a strategy.

*edited as also wanted to pass on my thanks to the NHS staff who helped by little one pull though and didn't press the panic button.

 

[pirate]

I think you're wrong to think that current spike in young people, in September, is mainly linked to some parties at the end of May. We'd be at much bigger numbers now if that had been a significant driver.

As I've said, there are many reasons why and how young people are in situations making them more at risk of infection. Blaming their social activities and ignoring the economic ones is an easy way out. Especially for the govenrnment who are in desperate need of a scapegoat right now. Personally I think we need to be demanding more of the people in charge right now.

I'll probably duck out of this conversation now as I've done a lot of posts on it this morning and I've covered everything I think about it I think!

Thats not what I was saying at all. Please dont misrepresent what I was saying (are you doing it on purpose or just misunderstanding?)

I was saying illegal gatherings starting in may and carrying on up to now are a major contributing factor. That the effect they have increases with the number of events and therefore have a bigger effect now than they did in the earlier in the year.

I also agreed that opening the economy is also a large factor.
However opening the economy can be argued as necessary (although i am not sure I support that argument), there is no argument you can make that raves and house parties are necessary.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

Pretty sure boris got the name wrong on operation moonshot

Should be operation bullshit

Operation "Hail Mary"

 

[quiet_riot]

Yet there wasn't a spike during the summer rave season or after the BLM protests. The spike has occurred after we've started opening up the economy.

Is that not just becasue the raves and BLM protests were actually a tiny proportion of people, but were overly-focused on by the media?!

 

[shemnel]

Is that not just becasue the raves and BLM protests were actually a tiny proportion of people, but were overly-focused on by the media?!

very possibly, but then the media focuses on a rave in manchester and one in bristol and blows that up. i suppose we dont really know the numbers associated with either! the incidence rate per age group does seem to be driving the median infection age down, but there are more factors at play than house parties.

 

[Mon Autre]

Is that not just becasue the raves and BLM protests were actually a tiny proportion of people, but were overly-focused on by the media?!

That's how I see it yes.

 

[Mon Autre]

Thats not what I was saying at all. Please dont misrepresent what I was saying (are you doing it on purpose or just misunderstanding?)

I was saying illegal gatherings starting in may and carrying on up to now are a major contributing factor. That the effect they have increases with the number of events and therefore have a bigger effect now than they did in the earlier in the year.

I also agreed that opening the economy is also a large factor.
However opening the economy can be argued as necessary (although i am not sure I support that argument), there is no argument you can make that raves and house parties are necessary.

I don't think the parties and raves are as pervasive as people are making out though when compared the numbers of people being sent to work.

I accept it's necessary to open up the economy. But people have to accept it will lead to a rise in infections. When you send thousands of young people back to work and infections increase as a result, don't then turn on them and say it's because they're behaving irresponsibly. You can either close things back down again or you can accept rising infections is a price worth paying to get things moving. Don't order them back to work though and then blame them when the inevitable happens.