COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Churchlawtonblue said:
I think its a pity they only concentrated on emphasising the worst case scanarios in Europe ie France and Spain. No presentation or explanation of the lower rates of infection and deaths in Sweden, Italy or Germany or any discussion on herd immunity.
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I wonder if people in other countries rush to the seaside, parks pubs etc as their last chance to do so before rules come into force. It seems barmy that they rush to the maximum chance of getting or passing it.
 
cleavers said:
I wasn't aware they were, a better question is why were the briefings dropped altogether ?


Of course they are, but do you think the politicians have been deliberately stupid, trying to make a shit show of it all, can you imagine how hard their work is trying to balance an economy (which we all need), the health of a country (and I don't mean covid, I mean all of it).

How difficult do you think all that is ? You seem to think you have all the answers, it's a pity then that you are not in charge of running it then ;-) (not a dig by the way, just an ironic comment), personally I think they've worked hard in an extremely difficult situation, and are trying to do their best, and failing because everything is too reactionary, and not proactive

I don't like the politics of any of them in this country, because it's always about division, so no matter who is running the show the other lot will always claim it's shit, and will get backing from certain members of the media, who are just as guilty for the shit show as the politicians in my view, because they hype up every negative possible, rather than reporting facts. In this current situation having a divided nation running 4 different governments hasn't helped either, all following their own selfish political agenda's, and yet here we are, it's climbing pretty much the same again in all 4 countries, despite each following a slightly different path.

We need more of the scientists explaining the science on that we completely agree, we need it explaining to the masses who don't understand it, there was very good presentation early on with red dots, showing spread with different R numbers, it was a graphic that even the thickest could understand.

Anyway I'm off to do some panic buying....
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Don't forget lol roll , never thought I would be asking my neighbours if they needed loo roll and leaving it on their doorsteps and runing away, it was sureal
 
Healdplace said:
From the parade of scientists on the BBC since the briefing it is seemingly because they all think the point was to prove today there is no virus weakening and kill off the quest for herd immunity that might inspire less desire to stick to rules on the basis of thinking I might as well catch it and get it over with.

There is a risk of some thinking - catch it now and become immune and then have a great party season.

If 8% in the UK and up to 17% in London are true numbers as cited by them it is nowhere near enough to do more than maybe slow increases in London a bit in a way the data has suggested. The % in Bolton must be as high as it can get now and as yet its not slowing.

True or not this message is clearly what the scientists advising the government believe.
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I think you are right Heald Place, they dont want to give some people any excuse to not follow the rules.

Out of interest Heald, what are your views of the infection and death data now coming out of Sweden compared to other countries ans also the recent news that Covid in Manaus in Brasil has suddenly reduced to negliable levels with only a very low percent of the population infected and no lockdown?
 
crooky said:
That would be 'mixed' messaging though. They need to layout the reasons for the new restrictions coming in and having examples of good news from counties like Italy, Sweden etc would be off message as such.

Most people don't realise that cases are going up as fast as they are so that's the main message they needed to get across and I think they did that well.

Once more people understand what's going on, the easier it is for the politicians to say what restrictions are coming in and with some hope people actually following them to a large degree.
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yes i thought that was the reason. im happy enough to follow the rules or even more, but accept that many people are looking for reasons not to do so. The issue is I just like to be fully informed and would have liked Vallance and Witty to have discussed more data.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
You contradicted yourself there Karen, if it doesnt matter what is happening in other countries why is it ok to only compare ourselves with some countries and not others. Why is it wrong to ask why some countries are doing better than ourselves?

Why is it wrong to ask questions about herd immnunity, your figures of 60% are certainly in question based on the analysis of some places. this virus is new we do not fully understand it.
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it only matters what is happening with France and Spain because earlier we were on the same line on the graph just three weeks behind, today was about we have to do so we do not go the same way, this was our scientists giving us clear picture and what we have to do,tune into any news channel or paper to find how we are doing and why some countries are doing better,this was not the purpose of today

At the start whitty talked about herd immunity,once we got a lot of deaths and in vulnerable people the gov denied it was the strategy , you won't hear that mentioned again ,60% is total population not area by area and that figure came from one of the CMO's
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
I think you are right Heald Place, they dont want to give some people any excuse to not follow the rules.

Out of interest Heald, what are your views of the infection and death data now coming out of Sweden compared to other countries ans also the recent news that Covid in Manaus in Brasil has suddenly reduced to negliable levels with only a very low percent of the population infected and no lockdown?
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Sweden is a fascinating case. I have friends there and visited myself so love the culture. It is very different from the UK.

What I do find very interesting is that the curve of the disease since March to now has a lot of similarity in Sweden to the one in Leicester - a city I have mentioned in here before because it is a case I don't see experts discussing despite it having a Sweden like path amidst a nation that didnt.

Though its numbers were higher so the climb more obvious than in Sweden it was very atypical of cities in the UK. The Manchester grph is very different from Leicester.

Why are no scientists noticing this I wonder? There might well be an obvious reason I am missing. But it looks as if they built slowly like Sweden without the April peak the rest of the UK did. Then climb right up to late June. Then Sweden carried on falling with no big restrictions and Leicester was put into lockdown and fell slowly for a bit and is not having as big a problem now but is higher than it was but not as high as it got in late June. Just like Sweden.

I really do not know why nobody is asking these questions as they must mean something.

Look at the curves for Manchester and Leicester on the Gov.UK site (if Iknew how to put them on here I would but I am not tech savvy sorry). THis is a bit like the UK v Sweden in microcosm apart from the last few weeks.

We should be asking why?
 
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Churchlawtonblue said:
You contradicted yourself there Karen, if it doesnt matter what is happening in other countries why is it ok to only compare ourselves with some countries and not others. Why is it wrong to ask why some countries are doing better than ourselves?

Why is it wrong to ask questions about herd immnunity, your figures of 60% are certainly in question based on the analysis of some places. this virus is new we do not fully understand it.
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Do you realise mate that the UK’s population density is about 12 times that of Sweden. Sweden’s is comparable with New Zealand btw. Sweden has a population of 10mil. New Zealand has a population of 5mil and we have have 60 odd million Brits.

I think Italy is an interesting comparison if they are now doing much better. Germany has had a working approach to track and trace throughout.

Herd immunity needs a vaccine that works well enough to protect a significant chunk of the population from the virus.
 
Four new South Wales areas around Cardiff put into new local lockdown. Hospital admissions climbing and care homes cases escalating there too.

Northern Ireland also reporting a higher % of new cases than England and new tighter restrictions are being planned.

As I noted yesterday on my updates N Ireland passed 1000 in the weekly case numbers total which a couple of months ago was not even at 100. So pro rata they have had a faster rise there.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
Do you realise mate that the UK’s population density is about 12 times that of Sweden. Sweden’s is comparable with New Zealand btw. Sweden has a population of 10mil. New Zealand has a population of 5mil and we have have 60 odd million Brits.

I think Italy is an interesting comparison if they are now doing much better. Germany has had a working approach to track and trace throughout.

Herd immunity needs a vaccine that works well enough to protect a significant chunk of the population from the virus.
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Comparing countries on landmass divided by population is far too simplistic. The vast majority of Swedens population is concentrated in the south and east. The majority of the country is very sparsely populated.
 
N Ireland;s latest figures on age ranges of new % tests is better news as of the 977 up to yesterday 114 were over 60 -which is only about 12%. It was up as high as 15% not long ago.

The graphs shown at the London briefing earlier were suggesting rising numbers were now occurring across the older age groups.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Comparing countries on landmass divided by population is far too simplistic. The vast majority of Swedens population is concentrated in the south and east. The majority of the country is very sparsely populated.
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True and that’s not a lot different to the South Island of New Zealand. Sweden’s infection rate might be lower than Denmark’s at the moment but the Swedes have been hit harder by Covid than neighbouring Countries

www.statista.com

Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the Nordics

Find the most up-to-date statistics about the coronavirus (COVID-19) in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden
www.statista.com www.statista.com
 
Tim of the Oak said:
Do you realise mate that the UK’s population density is about 12 times that of Sweden. Sweden’s is comparable with New Zealand btw. Sweden has a population of 10mil. New Zealand has a population of 5mil and we have have 60 odd million Brits.

I think Italy is an interesting comparison if they are now doing much better. Germany has had a working approach to track and trace throughout.

Herd immunity needs a vaccine that works well enough to protect a significant chunk of the population from the virus.
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I can also add that New Zealand is probably the most isolated western country in the world. LHR alone had 15 times more international flights than all of NZ. Plus there are no ferries to NZ. It always was in a very unique place to isolate itself from this virus and has done so very sucessully. Compariaons between NZ and any other country in the world has to be taken with a large pinch of salt.
 
when you see the numbers it’s hard to imagine we aren’t heading for another lockdown. I think he layed the foundation for it today
 
Tim of the Oak said:
True and that’s not a lot different to the South Island of New Zealand. Sweden’s infection rate might be lower than Denmark’s at the moment but the Swedes have been hit harder by Covid than neighbouring Countries

www.statista.com

Topic: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the Nordics

Find the most up-to-date statistics about the coronavirus (COVID-19) in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden
www.statista.com www.statista.com
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not disputing that sweden was really hard hit, just wondering why its doing so well now. its clearly isnt just down to population density otherwise they wouldnt have been hit so hard in the first place. Something else is happening that we need to understand as Heald has stated.
 
Healdplace said:
Sweden is a fascinating case. I have friends there and visited myself so love the culture. It is very different from the UK.

What I do find very interesting is that the curve of the disease since March to now has a lot of similarity in Sweden to the one in Leicester - a city I have mentioned in here before because it is a case I don't see experts discussing despite it having a Sweden like path amidst a nation that didnt.

Though its numbers were higher so the climb more obvious than in Sweden it was very atypical of cities in the UK. The Manchester grph is very different from Leicester.

Why are no scientists noticing this I wonder? There might well be an obvious reason I am missing. But it looks as if they built slowly like Sweden without the April peak the rest of the UK did. Then climb right up to late June. Then Sweden carried on falling with no big restrictions and Leicester was put into lockdown and fell slowly for a bit and is not having as big a problem now but is higher than it was but not as high as it got in late June. Just like Sweden.

I really do not know why nobody is asking these questions as they must mean something.

Look at the curves for Manchester and Leicester on the Gov.UK site (if Iknew how to put them on here I would but I am not tech savvy sorry). THis is a bit like the UK v Sweden in microcosm apart from the last few weeks.

We should be asking why?
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People are trying to find correlations between different places but it's impossible to compare towns let alone countries. Just as an example, it seems to be a fact that the virus seemingly affects different ethnicities very differently. If those ethnicities aren't present in an area then you will get different results.

Sweden in comparison has a very different testing policy, a different way of declaring COVID deaths, a different population density, a different population/age mix, different ethnicities and a different way of handling positive cases etc.

It is impossible to say any country is doing better and so we should do things differently by copying. Even the most local areas (villages) in a perfect world would need to handle the virus spread differently. For example, an area containing universities will likely see far more asymptomatic or mild cases compared to other areas because demographics change.

This whole thing is not like trying to compare who out of city and united are better at football, it's like trying to compare who out of city or wigan warriors rugby team are better at baseball.
 
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