Some can’t be arsed sure. Most people? I’m not sure what that’s based on. We both work as essential workers because we have to. It’s been incredibly difficult maintaining schooling whilst working full time. We have done our best but it’s hardly going to be at a level children need. The suggestion that I can’t be arsed is completely ignorant and offensive.
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COVID-19 — Coronavirus
- Thread starter urban genie
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Pedestrian
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Could be wrong but probably spoken by someone who doesn’t have kids and if they do, chances are they don’t home school.Some can’t be arsed sure. Most people? I’m not sure what that’s based on. We both work as essential workers because we have to. It’s been incredibly difficult maintaining schooling whilst working full time. We have done our best but it’s hardly going to be at a level children need. The suggestion that I can’t be arsed is completely ignorant and offensive.
SebastianBlue
President, International Julian Alvarez Fan Club
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I wanted to share this thread from a New York Times reporter who had COVID explaining her and her husband’s continued struggles recovering six months on from initial infection. She is fairly young and apparently didn’t have any condition that put her in the defined higher risk category.
Many statistical assessment systems class people like them as “recovered”, which masks the immense toll the virus is actually having on communities around the world (even apart from the very real health impact from economic crisis, much of which is happening because of the pandemic itself, not just the response), and is why many of us consistently say that the death rate is a very poor measure of the full impact to people (and the economy) for purposes of assessing current state and decision making for future mitigation.
Many statistical assessment systems class people like them as “recovered”, which masks the immense toll the virus is actually having on communities around the world (even apart from the very real health impact from economic crisis, much of which is happening because of the pandemic itself, not just the response), and is why many of us consistently say that the death rate is a very poor measure of the full impact to people (and the economy) for purposes of assessing current state and decision making for future mitigation.
Healdplace
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As I said, there is a slight rise in the death rate, but I (we, as in work colleagues) are not worried about these numbers at all at this moment in time. The new cases numbers are seriously in doubt primarily due to a deep concern that the tests are picking up old infections in the body. This is what happens when you leave non-NHS companies in charge of testing who aren't used to dealing with medical data.
Fair enough and that is a sensibe concern.
Without a doubtCould be wrong but probably spoken by someone who doesn’t have kids and if they do, chances are they don’t home school.
lancs blue
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With your background I'm sure you understand the concept of an exponential increase - if we wait for those figures to be visibly increasing exponentially it will be too late to prevent a second peak. We made that mistake first time around, national lockdown started on March 23rd at which point the number of new cases were doubling roughly every 4-5 days, by March 27th new cases had tripled relative to the 23rd. The horse had already bolted.I found the data you are referring to there, I was looking at different data, but it shows a similar trend. To put it really bluntly, when bugger all is doubled, it's still not very much. 79 people out of 70 million or so is not a national crisis.
kaz7
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I didnt say you did i ?Some can’t be arsed sure. Most people? I’m not sure what that’s based on. We both work as essential workers because we have to. It’s been incredibly difficult maintaining schooling whilst working full time. We have done our best but it’s hardly going to be at a level children need. The suggestion that I can’t be arsed is completely ignorant and offensive.
Healdplace
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You are right ,all numbers are going up and you dont wait till they are out of control to act ,it is an infectious disease that we dont have immunity to
I agree Kaz. That's why I take the view that we should hope for the best and work on the assumption that it likely will not be the worst but we may expexct sonewhere in between. So if we err on the side of caution we should be OK.
kaz7
Well-Known Member
Well seeing as i am sixty i dont have school aged kidsCould be wrong but probably spoken by someone who doesn’t have kids and if they do, chances are they don’t home school.
Deaths are a lagging indicator, it was generally acknowledged that we were late going into lockdown last time becuase we used deaths to look at the rate of change.You're looking at the figures wrong. Covid deaths are a random variable exhibiting variance over time so being happy it going down 5 in one day, then worrying it goes up by 7 the next day is incorrect. You need to look at the long term trend which is staying static (the curve is not increasing in an upward direction). The figures have only doubled if the mean over time doubles, which it hasn't. There's also the issue that they are counting all deaths as covid if they have tested positive for covid. The numbers unfortunately aren't very accurate.
Hospitalisations and ventilator useage is increasing.
There is a choice as to whether or not to sit it out but if you decide to intervene earlier is probably better.
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