COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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As there is no definition of wave and people can define it however they want . anyone can say there is no second wave anywhere.

Us lesser mortals think it looks pretty self evident that what we would term second waves look like they have happened in as much as the virus has returned in significant quantity to Iran Spain France and now the UK amongst other countries.

What will be the outcome in terms of deaths and illness is uncertain and will likely depend in part on measures taken to diminish the spread.
 
bluejon what is your take on two things I find interesting if you look at the gov.uk graphs of individual areas during the pandemic.

Why has Leicester been so different (there are a couple of others like it but as a city area this stands out)? Climbing slowly through the April peak in a way you are hoping this 'second wave' (real or just in name) may do? It only reached in late June the levels other places had got to in early/mid April after being well below during their peak.

What caused it to rise so slowly when elsewhere was not and then keep climbing for many weeks until it was put into special measures in late June when everywhere else more or less was falling to near nothing?

Can we learn anything from this anomaly?

And Ashford, which was hit very badly in the early days (I wondered in here if because of the Eurostar station) and was the second behind Leicester to go to a 1000 pop score. But it had its peak and fell like elsewhere and is still at a very low level such that its pop score has been barely moving.

Do statisticians just see these as inevitable differences in averages or do they mean something useful to understand ?
 
You want me to wear a mask while I’m walking my dog in the park ?


c1_1906775.jpg

South Korea
Population: 51m
Cases: 23,000
Deaths: 393

Vs

UK
Population: 67m
Cases: 409,000
Deaths: 42,000

What do you think?
 
2020 gets even weirder.

We or should i say, politicians have been gripped by fear. Not a fear of a deadly virus about to wipe out humanity, a fear if being criticized via social media and the experts that live on it who have the answers to anything and everything and in a desperate attempt to pander, they flip and flop there way around this subject lurching from one extreme to another.

Politicians dont have a fucking clue, hence opposition supporting but criticizing at the same time and when asked for an alternative, have none and say we support the government.

Only in a few years time we will know the full picture of covid and my guess, right now is we will look back and think wtf did we do to ourselves over this and like many viruses, it will be accepted we just fucking live with it and understand there is no locking ourselves away behind doors and losing jobs to escape it.

Be sensible yes, wear a mask, social distance. wash hands etc but the second this became a political football, a left vs right war especially amongst social media we lost our collective fucking minds and its led to where we are right now.
 
bluejon what is your take on two things I find interesting if you look at the gov.uk graphs of individual areas during the pandemic.

Why has Leicester been so different (there are a couple of others like it but as a city area this stands out)? Climbing slowly through the April peak in a way you are hoping this 'second wave' (real or just in name) may do? It reached the levels other places had got to in early/mid April after being well below during the peak.

What caused it to rise so slowly when elsewhere was not and then keep climbing for many weeks until it was put inti measures in late June when everywhere else more or less was falling to near nothing?

Can we learn anything from this anomaly?

And Ashford, which was hit very badly in the early days (I wondered in here if because of the Eurostar station) and was the second behind Leicester to go to a 1000 pop score. But it had its peak and fell like elsewhere and is still at a very low level such thar its pop score is barely moving.

Do statistocians just see these as inevitable differences or do they mean something useful to understand ?
The quick answer to that is "yes, there was a lot to learn from that". I believe what happened in Leicester was the disease hadn't spread throughout the city prior to lockdown unlike the major urban areas so it took longer to hit the vulnerable older muslim population (who were predominantly the group affected in Leicester, same as Oldham etc). When it did hit, you get the same touch paper situation we had in the care homes sector and suddenly you got a noticeable short sharp increase in illness/infection. My full answer to that is a lot more complex, and does involve different behaviours in different racial demographics, but that's the best i can do without an essay.
 
That has nothing to do with the post that 99% of tests give a false positive.
That is bollocks.

The claim was that 9 out of 10 random tests 'in the community' are false positives, not that 99% of every test is a false positive.

I know you're not a fan and I'm not really either but here's the video and claim at about 11 minutes IIRC:

 
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