COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[roubaixtuesday]

You can not help but be however when I actually look at the data it's just a bad 'flu year, and is dwarfed by Spanish 'flu.

I would advise extreme caution when interrogating graphs like that. For instance:

1. The way deaths are categorised may have changed

2. Flu has been essentially wiped out by social distancing this year

3. COVID would have been much worse had we not imposed the restrictions we did.

"We averted disaster" does not imply "COVID is just bad flu"

 

[Marvin]

So are you up for working down the pit and defending a trench in Spain or Belgium. Things have moved on a bit over the last 100 years.

The graph compares death due to respiratory illness through the last century and more. 1918 is on there, but so is the rest of the twentieth century. Why are you comparing life down the pit and trenches to 2020? Look at the 1990s before we had the 'flu jab.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Oh come on you can't deny the divide surely?
The North has always and will be always be treated with contempt from the Tories.
They don't care.

I don't think of it that way so much, more of an anti English region thing. You will find people in the midlands and the south west that feel just like the north that they are left out of things. Its more i think a result of the London centric bias of every political party and this has been exasperated by devolution where the English regions have been left even further behind.

 

[remember arthur mann]

Without wanting a polling fest,wondered about a poll asking who has had it,who has had it in the immediate family ie partner,children gransparents / children / Or nobody close . Thought it might give some rough idea how many have had experience of family cases.

Other half tested positive two weeks ago, still rough and coughing her lungs up, given the all clear to get out and about on day 10, I'm still in isolation until Sunday, 4 day incubation period, definitely puts you under the cosh, especially with me having a chronic lung condition and heart failure, struggled since the beginning of the virus and sadly the local surgery aint arsed.

 

[Marvin]

I would advise extreme caution when interrogating graphs like that. For instance:

1. The way deaths are categorised may have changed

2. Flu has been essentially wiped out by social distancing this year

3. COVID would have been much worse had we not imposed the restrictions we did.

"We averted disaster" does not imply "COVID is just bad flu"

I would advise everyone to make an effort at interpreting something as pertinent to their lives as this.

I don't want to make any claims as to what Covid is or isn't. I just suggest people look at it. Go through the significant moments in their lives and compare the deaths in the UK then due to respiratory illness to now. That's what the graph let's you do. If you can fault it then I tip my cap to you.

I am not saying that Covid just bad 'flu but it is a virus like many others. Make an intellectual effort for yourself to put things into perspective, if you already have, fine!

 

[BLUEMATT23]

I don't think of it that way so much, more of an anti English region thing. You will find people in the midlands and the south west that feel just like the north that they are left out of things. Its more i think a result of the London centric bias of every political party and this has been exasperated by devolution where the English regions have been left even further behind.

I predict Labour will win the next election - the Tories have let people down.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

This is an aside: The annual deaths due to flu, covid or pneumonia since 1901 from the ONS. It's not new and no doubt it has been discussed many times before.

It's worth looking at again for historical perspective and to consider how this compares to 'normal' 'flu epidemics.

Spanish 'flu is completely off the scale dwarfing Covid.

I ask myself and you why the world has been gripped by this because in terms of death it is significant but not really that unusual. You have to think though what it would like if the world did nothing. I think the horrifying thing for us is the fear that our parents get it but we don't have the same national reaction with 'flu.

Is the response to Covid19 rational? I include myself in that as I am caught up in it as much as anyone else.

You can argue that it's because the death is carried by one social group the elderly but isn't it always with respiratory illness?

I’m not totally clued up on my history, but I thought the reason the Spanish flu was so deadly was firstly that it mutated into something horrific but also that nobody wanted to introduce quarantine or lockdown etc as it would have halted the war effort.

An unchecked Covid-19 would have resulted in a very significant spike in that graph.

A ‘normal’ flu season also doesn’t have lockdown measures within it. It doesn’t seem a worthwhile comparison to look at Covid-19 WITH lockdown and social distancing and normal flu without all that. And to then throw in Spanish flu which was during the war and some 100 years behind in terms of epidemiological knowledge and healthcare. The circumstances are so radically different.

 

[Great Uncle Kip]

Long time lurker, in fact i actually cant remember what i was searching for that brought me here in the first place, it was Covid related.

But i just wanted to take the opportunity to thank @Healdplace for the daily updates. The quality is incredible, far better than anything ive seen elsewhere in terms of the figures and what they mean. Absolutely invaluable when there is so much bad info out there. And incredibly scary when you were pointing things out that the government and MSM seemed oblivious to. Thank you so much.

 

[willipp]

I’m not totally clued up on my history, but I thought the reason the Spanish flu was so deadly was firstly that it mutated into something horrific but also that nobody wanted to introduce quarantine or lockdown etc as it would have halted the war effort.

An unchecked Covid-19 would have resulted in a very significant spike in that graph.

A ‘normal’ flu season also doesn’t have lockdown measures within it. It doesn’t seem a worthwhile comparison to look at Covid-19 WITH lockdown and social distancing and normal flu without all that. And to then throw in Spanish flu which was during the war and some 100 years behind in terms of epidemiological knowledge and healthcare. The circumstances are so radically different.

Might have already been mentioned, but a good watch on BBC2 last night at 9pm on the 1918 spanish flu. There seemed to be a lot of factors that made it so deadly, an obvious one being lack of medical expertese in viruses and pretty much no treatment for it. You got it, you were at its mercy and all that the doctors and nurses could offer was palliative care. Added to that there was very little lockdown or quarantine and its deadliness was kept quiet as it was war time and people were under enough strain.

Actually Manchester it said was one of the only places to do public health warnings in cinemas and that undoubtedly saved many lives.

 

[shemnel]

I would advise extreme caution when interrogating graphs like that. For instance:

1. The way deaths are categorised may have changed

2. Flu has been essentially wiped out by social distancing this year

3. COVID would have been much worse had we not imposed the restrictions we did.

"We averted disaster" does not imply "COVID is just bad flu"

2. - i think it has been largely effected by those susceptible to flu succumbing to covid, statistical switcheroo to some extent

3. - this is predicated on 'if' and cannot be claimed as true.

 

[shemnel]

I am completely fixated by this. You can not help but be however when I actually look at the data it's just a bad 'flu year, and is dwarfed by Spanish 'flu. Had we done nothing where would it be is perhaps the question?

The deaths are a significant leap from where we were in 2019 and in that sense it's a huge leap but we are only returning to the levels pre-flu jab. Then I happily went through school and was oblivious to illness.

We have to consider though what this would be if we did nothing. That is not clear. There are some countries such as Iran which lack the economic strength to lockdown. This epidemic is marked by waves which peak and then seem to crash but do they crash because every society naturally hunkers down until it passes.

It does not matter whether you are a modern civilised society or a favela, when illness comes to your neighbourhood everyone instinctively does the same - quarantine.

I think I go with the fear of the unknown. The world has. We aren't all hysterical surely? When you consider the cost to business and wealth production, the elites who run the world would not have sacrificed their wealth had it not been necessary?

i couldnt agree more, the excess death spike it put on here for a 10 year time series sees us back to the levels of early 2000s. there is a point about 'what could have happened if we didnt act' but i would argue the disease has not been affected much by what we have done.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I am not saying that Covid just bad 'flu but it is a virus like many others. Make an intellectual effort for yourself to put things into perspective, if you already have, fine!

I have indeed made the effort to understand COVID. It is roughly twice as infectious as flu and ten times more deadly.

I have seen much data misinterpreted which purports to show otherwise; on closer inspection it invariably proves misleading.

A recent comparison:

Comparing COVID-19 and the flu

While these viruses have many similarities, there are also some important differences.

www.unmc.edu

 

[remember arthur mann]

Might have already been mentioned, but a good watch on BBC2 last night at 9pm on the 1918 spanish flu. There seemed to be a lot of factors that made it so deadly, an obvious one being lack of medical expertese in viruses and pretty much no treatment for it. You got it, you were at its mercy and all that the doctors and nurses could offer was palliative care. Added to that there was very little lockdown or quarantine and its deadliness was kept quiet as it was war time and people were under enough strain.

Actually Manchester it said was one of the only places to do public health warnings in cinemas and that undoubtedly saved many lives.

Worth a watch..

BBC Two - The Flu That Killed 50 Million

Christopher Eccleston narrates a docudrama about the 1918 flu pandemic.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[worsleyweb]

Oh come on you can't deny the divide surely?
The North has always and will be always be treated with contempt from the Tories.
They don't care.

You seriously need to grow up - They have a manifesto that is all about levelling up and recent spending announcements reinforce that - i suggest you do some research before commenting - your comments are just waffle.

Tories are bad = hate the north - its childish.

 

[worsleyweb]

I predict Labour will win the next election - the Tories have let people down.

i predict they wont. How is the third most generous support package anywhere in the world letting people down? please explain?

 

[Ric]

Long time lurker, in fact i actually cant remember what i was searching for that brought me here in the first place, it was Covid related.

But i just wanted to take the opportunity to thank @Healdplace for the daily updates. The quality is incredible, far better than anything ive seen elsewhere in terms of the figures and what they mean. Absolutely invaluable when there is so much bad info out there. And incredibly scary when you were pointing things out that the government and MSM seemed oblivious to. Thank you so much.

Well said, her updates are greatly appreciated.

 

[Ric]

i predict they wont. How is the third most generous support package anywhere in the world letting people down? please explain?

There’s the excluded 3 million for a start, but that’s a discussion for another thread.

 

[jaseirai]

I’ve not seen this court ruling in Portugal mentioned in the media for some reason. I vaguely remember test accuracy was questioned back in March but those were dismissed.

Judges in Portugal highlight “more than debatable” reliability of Covid tests

judges in Lisbon have described the reliability of Covid tests being rolled out in their tens of thousands as “more than debatable”.

www.portugalresident.com

“This means that if a person has a positive PCR test at a threshold of cycles of 35 or higher (as happens in most laboratories in the USA and Europe), the chances of a person being infected is less than 3%. The probability of a person receiving a false positive is 97% or higher”.

 

[worsleyweb]

There’s the excluded 3 million for a start, but that’s a discussion for another thread.

Just lets be truly thankful it is Rishi and not Annelise Dodd's in charge of this. I wouldn't let her till up at the school tuck shop. Lets leave it there.

 

[Corky]

Lancaster is c. 100/100k at the moment, the reason we are in tier 3 is because the govt decided unequivocally to not split sub-region areas (Lancashire, GM, London etc). In fairness they have not really done that anywhere in the UK, apart from Slough i believe.

There are 5 criteria for tiers; Case detection rates in all age groups, Case detection rates in the over 60s, The rate at which cases are rising or falling, Positivity rate (the number of positive cases detected as a percentage of tests taken), Pressure on the NHS.

Lancaster fail none (the hospitals are fine, a lot of friends work in LRI), we simply suffer from proxy, that is all. I have some sympathy as you have to draw a line somewhere and we and a few other low rate authorities suffer, it's the way it is. It wasn't exactly freedom and paradise we were missing out on!! perspective. I suppose being attached to Cumbria we could have made a special case to keep a contiguous area, but it would cause all sorts of bother the govt wouldn't be interested.

and for those wanting the 'given' reason for Manchester;


View attachment 5881

Slough is a unitary authority so is a public health authority, Lancaster isn't so there was no chance if getting special treatment. North Yorkshire is another daft example where the largest county council is all treated the same despite towns being 100 miles apart.