COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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jaseirai said:
The probability of a person receiving a false positive is 97% or higher
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This is self evidently absolute bollocks; if it were true then you'd simply see that the number of positives is directly proportional to the number of tests, and that hospitalisations and deaths don't follow cases. It isn't. They do.

Here's a blog post explainer with references if you're interested.

virologydownunder.com

The "false-positive PCR" problem is not a problem

There clearly is no PCR crisis or false positive plague or casedemic. The false-positive PCR problem is not a problem.
virologydownunder.com virologydownunder.com
 
roubaixtuesday said:
This is self evidently absolute bollocks; if it were true then you'd simply see that the number of positives is directly proportional to the number of tests, and that hospitalisations and deaths don't follow cases. It isn't. They do.

Here's a blog post explainer with references if you're interested.

virologydownunder.com

The "false-positive PCR" problem is not a problem

There clearly is no PCR crisis or false positive plague or casedemic. The false-positive PCR problem is not a problem.
virologydownunder.com virologydownunder.com
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Just reporting an appeal court decision. I’ve no idea either way.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I have indeed made the effort to understand COVID. It is roughly twice as infectious as flu and ten times more deadly.

I have seen much data misinterpreted which purports to show otherwise; on closer inspection it invariably proves misleading.

A recent comparison:
www.unmc.edu

Comparing COVID-19 and the flu

While these viruses have many similarities, there are also some important differences.
www.unmc.edu
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I know you know the difference between variance and mean so don't fall into that trap.
How does Spanish 'flu, Asian and Hong Kong 'flu compare to the average 'flu? The medics tell us that the pandemic they were preparing for was a 'flu variant?
 
Taken from the BBC:

What happened to cases in Liverpool and Manchester?​

Announcing which areas in England would enter which tiers, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said: "Unfortunately, we did see the impact on the number of cases going up and continuing to go up in those areas where local leaders were not working alongside us."
He said this was in “sharp contrast” to what happened in Liverpool.
Mr Hancock did not name names but one of the local leaders the government did not see eye-to-eye with was Andy Burnham – mayor of Greater Manchester.
So, what happened to coronavirus cases in these two areas?
Liverpool City Region became the first area to enter tier three restrictions (under the old system) on 14 October. In the week to 14 October, it had 467.8 cases per 100,000 people.
That number has since fallen to 180 cases per 100,000 - as of the week to 21 November - across Merseyside.
Greater Manchester entered tier three restrictions on 23 October (after a stand-off between Mr Burnham and the government).
In the week to 23 October, there were 519.7 cases per 100,000 in Greater Manchester. A week earlier, when negotiations began, there were 404.8 cases per 100,000.In response to the health secretary’s remarks, Mr Burnham told LBC: “Myself and the 10 leaders of Greater Manchester spent the weekend by the phone, waiting for the government to get back to us in the middle of that and they never did.”
He said the government should stop “playing the divide and rule game” by comparing Liverpool and Manchester.
The case rate for Greater Manchester was 274 per 100,000 - as of the week to 21 November.
Merseyside, where the case rate is below the national average, will be in tier two from 2 December, while Greater Manchester, where the case rate is above the national average, will be in tier three.
 
Corky said:
Slough is a unitary authority so is a public health authority, Lancaster isn't so there was no chance if getting special treatment. North Yorkshire is another daft example where the largest county council is all treated the same despite towns being 100 miles apart.
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Presumably it's down to the authority being the ones keeping track on what they have on their patch?

It would likely be far more difficult if each individual area/town was considered separately.
 
hammocity said:
Hate sexism, didn't realise you are a chick though :-)
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At my age old hen would be more appropriate I suspect.

But please don't worry. I don't think anyone (other than those I have conversed with by PM) realised for much of the time either until I mentioned it by accident when backing Kaz up over something a week or two ago.

I said nothing before then as it was not relevant.
 
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Scotland data up first as usual. Nicola having a day off the briefing today btw.

Tragically deaths are up week to week again. But other data more promising,

Deaths 37

Cases 969 at 4.0% positive. Lowest in quite a while.

315 in Greater Glasgow, 201 Lanarkshire, 121 Lothian

Patients 1099 - a fall of 26 today and three successive falls totalling 98 since the start of the week. Very good news in line with falling hospital numbers in NW England.

Ventilators 80 - down 10. Obviously the deaths are a factor but these are falling too now.
 
The health minister taking the Scottish briefing issued a warning to people of Scotland which likely will apply in the rest of the UK.

She reported how the contact tracing ap is being used by scammers who are contacting people to falsely claim they need to isolate and (if I understood rightly) asking for bank details so they can pay in compensation.

This does not happen if you are really contacted by the ap - which will be no surprise to most people. But despicable some will abuse the system like this to try to steal from those trying to do the right thing.
 
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Scotland 3 wks ago v 2 wks v last wk v today:

Deaths 31 v 56 v 32 v 37 today

Cases 1072 v 1357 v 1018 v 969 today - not a huge fall but going down as the 4 % positive suggests. It was 4.7 yesterday and 6.8% two days ago.

Patients 1237 v 1228 v 1234 v 1099 today - very clear flattening and fall in past week. Exactly what happened in the NW the past two weeks too. With Scotland and NW England in different regimes.

Makes you wonder if it is the measures that work or the two areas that were impacted the most are coming out of the second wave at roughly the same time almost regardless.

Ventilated 98 v 96 v 88 v 80 today - is a steady and hopeful downward path.
 
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