COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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2% of Londoners have Covid or 98% don’t dependant if you’re a glass half empty or full kinda person
 
Sadly news from Northern Ireland is less good. They are not publishing full data until 28 December now either. But....

Cases up to their highest level for over 2 months at 841. They also confirm the mutant strain is present there and a factor in this rise.

Indeed they say that 49% of all cases in England are now believed to be the mutant strain and it is rapidly ta king over everywhere driving up case numbers.

Deaths are 12 - same as last week

But the rolling weekly total of cases that was here 7000 before they went into a circuit breaker then fell week on week to not much over 2000 a week or two ago has now started rising steadily despite the imposition of restrictions there and is now back up to 4300.

This seems to suggest that even with strict measures it is hard to keep a lid on this new strain.

Without strict measures you are laying down the welcome mat for 100,000 cases a day. Out of which even if it is just 1% who die that means 1000 dying every day at the peak.

Sobering figures as to why we need to accept the measures that are coming whether we personally want them to or not.

Hopefully though this is extra time and holding on through the final minutes as the opposition tries hard to get an equaliser. Not the opening minutes of a game when we have it all to do.
 
twosips said:
Can I just say that I hope you all have a lovely Christmas. I've been checking this thread god knows how many times a day since this whole thing kicked off and it's been a wonderful source of information and debate. Thank you to all involved. I hope every single one of you gets a little peace and relaxation this christmas. Even to the people that I've no doubt pissed off and annoyed and fallen out with in this thread. Ha. Apologies, sincerely, to those people. I didn't mean to. Just life hey - it's very testing at the moment. It's been a horrible year where we've obsessed over death and illness and no one should have to live like that. We deserve a better year next year and ive got no doubt that we'll get it. Big love to you all and I hope you have a nice day and can make the most of it. As my mum said to me earlier, 'it is what it is'. Quite! Here's to next year, blues!x
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Your Mum is right (arent they always,and i miss mine terribly x) just make the very best of a shitty situation and look forward to a much brighter future,it isnt far away!

As for falling out with folk.....very few hold grudges on this forum,and most will have even forgotten who they were arguing with a couple of pages later....lol.

So,likewise,have a wonderful Christmas (all) and take care.
 
Boris is at least good for a one liner:

Press conference now - That's the news from Brussels - time for the sprouts. Um, I mean the media.
 
twosips said:
Can I just say that I hope you all have a lovely Christmas. I've been checking this thread god knows how many times a day since this whole thing kicked off and it's been a wonderful source of information and debate. Thank you to all involved. I hope every single one of you gets a little peace and relaxation this christmas. Even to the people that I've no doubt pissed off and annoyed and fallen out with in this thread. Ha. Apologies, sincerely, to those people. I didn't mean to. Just life hey - it's very testing at the moment. It's been a horrible year where we've obsessed over death and illness and no one should have to live like that. We deserve a better year next year and ive got no doubt that we'll get it. Big love to you all and I hope you have a nice day and can make the most of it. As my mum said to me earlier, 'it is what it is'. Quite! Here's to next year, blues!x
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Doubt if you've pissed too many people off but if you have it's only a debate, would be a terrible, boring world if we all had the same opinions/views on life. Have a good un yourself, best wishes to you and your family.
 
Merry Christmas to all.

We have an early present.
The wife and teenage daughter both tested positive today.

Both are very careful- wife is a headteacher and Daughter school is small and careful too.
Son and I now waiting to hear if we have the same present.

You just don’t know , so all be careful.
 
So the three nation deaths today (without out of hospital from England) are 467.

wk to wk over past 3 weeks :- 378 v 386 v 433 v 467 TODAY
 
And three nations cases without England is 3316.

wk to wk: - 2873 v 2342 v 4356 (approx as it was in the 11K lost cases for Wales) v 3316 today.

But up and down to say the least.
 
Boris by the way said the vaccinations since Sunday take us up to about 800,000 today.

That is over 1% of the UK population. And about 6.4% of the most vulnerable - ie over 65 s - though they are not the only ones getting these early doses as health care workers are too - so it will be less than that.

And even higher of the over 80s who are prioritised now. There are 3.2 million of those to reach.

Most over 80s have been told to expect it from a week on Monday onwards when it seems the Oxford vaccine will be on stream and the number of inoculation centres will multiply - including one near the Etihad where she expects to get her vaccination that week. Largely as asking the most vulnerable over 80s to travel to the limited vaccine centres we have now with the hard to deploy first vaccine are impossible for many to reach.
 
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The 350 England hospital deaths reported today were aged between 25 and 100.

Just 7 - aged 30 to 97 - had no previously known underlying conditions
 
Healdplace said:
Boris by the way said the vaccinations since Sunday take us up to about 800,000 today.

That is over 1% of the UK population. And about 6.4% of the most vulnerable - ie over 65 s - though they are not the only ones getting these early doses as health care workers are too - so it will be less than that.

And even higher of the over 80s who are prioritised now. There are 3.2 million of those to reach.

Most over 80s have been told to expect it from a week on Monday onwards when it seems the Oxford vaccine will be on stream and the number of inoculation centres will multiply - including one near the Etihad where she expects to get her vaccination that week. Largely as asking the most vulnerable over 80s to travel to the limited vaccine centres we have now with the hard to deploy first vaccine are impossible for many to reach.
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How soon do you think we'll be seeing this in falling death rates? My Mum, 82, has been told January for hers. My Father in law, 87 had his first dose last week
 
Government is by the way 'considering' the suggestion to give the Pffeizer vaccine to twice as many people by uing just one dose from the early orders they have for this.
 
artfuldodger said:
How soon do you think we'll be seeing this in falling death rates? My Mum, 82, has been told January for hers. My Father in law, 87 had his first dose last week
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The decisions are not made from clinical need but ease of access with this tricky vaccine.

Once we have the Oxford vaccine it will be done on vulnerability and age in the tiers they have created.

My friend who has to wait to January could not be more vulnerable - older than either the above - with very severe asthma, a son who died around 30 from asthma, in heart failure for over a year and having spent last Christmas in hospital with sepsis and pneumonia that she beat.

So if it was just priority of need she would have been in the first 800,000 I am certain.

As for when we will see death rates fall. Hopefully by mid January it will start as the transition from catching it to dying is at least 4 weeks or so on average. So by the end of January there ought to be a visible difference but it will be offset by all the other factors - rising cases potentially increasing hospital pressures, deaths from other things that are common in winter but will likely get put down to Covid.

Going to depend on many things - not least how well one dose does protect.

Watching the death figures in coming weeks will tell us a lot. But it is not a simple equation to work out as multiple factors 'cause' what is reported as a 'Covid death'.

We should first notice something in care home deaths once they are mostly protected. As these are inevitably major places where the over 80s catch it. And staff are in this first wave of vaccinations and that should have an impact too.
 
If we're not going to play vaccine delivery by the book then I think we'll be in more trouble long-term than its worth. It's been tested and approved a certain way for a reason and should be delivered that way for safety and public confidence.
 
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