Cup draws conspiracy - fact or fiction?

[scousemanc]

As I had an extra hour today, I did a bit of research on City and United cup draws to see if I could explode a myth.
I analysed all the League Cup and FA Cup draws over the last 3 seasons, 15/16, 16/17 and 17/18 to date. In total, 31 matches covered (statistically significant?).

The results are shown below and I think, quite remarkable.

United/City - Home v Away draws
United Home = 56%
City Home = 20%

United/City - lower league opposition
United lower league opposition = 69%
City lower league opposition = 20%

So United have roughly 3 times as many home draws as City and also play lower league teams roughly 3 times more frequently than City. Draw your own conclusions.

 

[burning blue soul]

could be a blip. do the figures over 10 years if you have the time. should give a better feel for the real trend.

 

[manimanc]

It is strange that the cup holders get the only championship team left in the cup.
Weird.

 

[dronefromsector7G]

If these draws were rigged wouldn't they have more than 56% home draws?

 

[hazmcfc]

Sample size is too small

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Everyone seems to conveniently forget when we had a remarkable run of successive home draws. Think it was in the Mancini era.

 

[Jesus Cheekbone]

I went through their league cup games up to 2004 and from 40 draws they are at approx 50% of lower league opposition. Not sure we're relevant to such a big period as we obviously weren't hated up to 2008 so there would be no need to be hit with draws. it's about 60% of home draws in same period for them.

When it come to draws against top opposition, like current "top 6", without semis, they played 6 times against top teams and they were 5 times at home.

 

[Corky]

I went through their league cup games up to 2004 and from 40 draws they are at approx 50% of lower league opposition. Not sure we're relevant to such a big period as we obviously weren't hated up to 2008 so there would be no need to be hit with draws. it's about 60% of home draws in same period for them.

As the league cup had seeded for lower league opposition and city had been a lower seed prior to 2004, it doesn't really mean much.

Why just compare City and United? Obsessed.

 

[Jesus Cheekbone]

I don't think there's consipracy there tbh. If I'd be suspicious about draws, it would probably be Champions League ones, we tend to get best teams from their respective seed groups pretty much each time.

 

[mancunial]

If we draw the rags in any cup competition if it’s a straight knock out we are away, if it’s a two legged we are at home first, that’s a certainty, I don’t have to look at the stats for that I know from years of experience, I also have a theory of my own that someone could check, that city draw more sides with the letters beginning with L M or N I think about 70 %